Nordas (idc if he says he can’t run a fast one, he closed a 3:29 in 52)
Nuguse
Hocker
Laros
I think on Coffee Club they said Nuguse ran a 49 in practice prior to running 1:46 this past spring. Am I crazy to think that the only guys breaking 49 are Laros and Wightman? Maybe Hocker. I have heard he has serious wheels. Maybe Tim C.
I would guess a decent number could go under 49 if they put any focus on it. Even the "slower" ones could probably sneak under 50 with a little bit of preparation.
One of the most overlooked aspects of the Norwegian training system is Mondays. On Mondays, they do speed development. Flying 50m or 60m sprints with long recovery. Drills. Plyos. I don’t know a lot of other programs that are doing that on a weekly basis like that. Wightman does. Laros probably. The Norwegians are also ripping 20 x 200m hills every week. Again, not something that elites are doing on a weekly basis throughout the year. Everybody focuses on the double threshold but I feel like this type of speed training does way more than people realize.
With the exception of Wightman and Tim C who are probably the only one's capable of sub 48, Wightman's PB is currently 48.34 and Tim C's 800 PB of 1:43.11 makes me think he'd be able to as well
I’d imagine most elite milers even at the collegiate/club level can run 49-50, I’d guess 47-49 for most guys attempting to get into a final.
I also think Jakob is actually one of the slower worlds best with probabaly about 48.5-49 speed. He clearly has better endurance than every miler except maybe (and a big maybe) nuguse, the only thing that holds him back in tactical races is the speed going into the final 150m.
Coached a 3.35 guy recently, coming up from 800m, who has an official PR of 47.9 (out of the blocks). There has has to be quite a number of guys faster than him. The lack of speed is partly what drove the incentive to move up to 1500m as his main event.
I’d imagine most elite milers even at the collegiate/club level can run 49-50, I’d guess 47-49 for most guys attempting to get into a final.
I also think Jakob is actually one of the slower worlds best with probabaly about 48.5-49 speed. He clearly has better endurance than every miler except maybe (and a big maybe) nuguse, the only thing that holds him back in tactical races is the speed going into the final 150m.
In an actual race I think all of the top men would be under 49 and most would be under 48.
I could see some of them under 47 and a couple going 45.xx.
I’d imagine most elite milers even at the collegiate/club level can run 49-50, I’d guess 47-49 for most guys attempting to get into a final.
I also think Jakob is actually one of the slower worlds best with probabaly about 48.5-49 speed. He clearly has better endurance than every miler except maybe (and a big maybe) nuguse, the only thing that holds him back in tactical races is the speed going into the final 150m.
In an actual race I think all of the top men would be under 49 and most would be under 48.
I could see some of them under 47 and a couple going 45.xx.
Multiple guys 45.xx? That’s crazy. Who? Laros, Wightman, Tim C would be the only ones who could conceivably do it. Even for those guys I am very doubtful. IIRC, Clayton Murphy split 46.x at regionals the year he ran 1:42. Nobody has 1:42 speed at the moment. If they did, they would likely be in the 8 and not the 15. Murphy has run 47 open. You said “in an actual race.” Does that mean open? 4x4 split? If open, you are absolutely out of your mind if you think anybody is breaking 47.
I would guess a decent number could go under 49 if they put any focus on it. Even the "slower" ones could probably sneak under 50 with a little bit of preparation.
If the best US high school milers can run 50 or under, then you can bet that the best 1500 runners in the WORLD can run faster than 48. "sneak under 50" lol
The faster guys I think can run mid 48's from a rolling start. I think the guy with the best basic speed is Wightman and I am sure he could run sub 48 rolling.
Even the "slowest" guy here which is probably Nordas I think gets very close to 50.0 (ie. +/- a tenth or so) under the same rolling start conditions. Jakob? Definitely a mid 49 guy.
I’d imagine most elite milers even at the collegiate/club level can run 49-50, I’d guess 47-49 for most guys attempting to get into a final.
I also think Jakob is actually one of the slower worlds best with probabaly about 48.5-49 speed. He clearly has better endurance than every miler except maybe (and a big maybe) nuguse, the only thing that holds him back in tactical races is the speed going into the final 150m.
In an actual race I think all of the top men would be under 49 and most would be under 48.
I could see some of them under 47 and a couple going 45.xx.
Love this post.
David Rudisha - he of 1.40.91 fame, has a 400m PR of 45.50. Granted this is out of the blocks so he is a sub 45 guy in a relay, but this is also the world record holder in the 800 meters and he was a 400/800 guy not an 8-15'er.
Put it this way, there is absolutely zero chance any of these guys sniff 45 point. ZERO. And the chance that the fastest guy Wightman even gets close to sub 47 is extremely low and I am pretty sure Jake himself would laugh at the notion that he could.
I would guess a decent number could go under 49 if they put any focus on it. Even the "slower" ones could probably sneak under 50 with a little bit of preparation.
If the best US high school milers can run 50 or under, then you can bet that the best 1500 runners in the WORLD can run faster than 48. "sneak under 50" lol
Maybe.
My guess is based on an open 400 meter race, rather than a relay split or any sort of rolling start.
Kessler ran what, 50 flat? Webb was well under that, for sure. But would I take Nordas over a field of the top US high school milers in a 400 meter race? I'm not convinced that I would. Pro guys have much more developed endurance, so they get considerably faster in the 1500 even when their 400 meter speed is only marginally faster than the top high school middle distance guys
for a comparison: i was at a table with some of the best american 1500 runners of the day some time in the 90s and we asked 400 PRs, relay splits and rolling starts included since none of us had done an actual open race. mine at the time was 50-flat, though i achieved a 49-high shortly after with a rolling start in a workout. one guy claimed something like a 52, and he was a 3:35 guy--we all claimed BS but seemed like a pretty honest ivy leaguer. we were the two slowest claimed, assuming everyone was honest, at a table that ranged 3:31 to 3:39-ish, and most were under 49, down to a claimed 47-flat if i recall correctly.
in other words, the names listed by the OP would have blown us all out of the water in every distance from 400 on up. end of story.
for a comparison: i was at a table with some of the best american 1500 runners of the day some time in the 90s and we asked 400 PRs, relay splits and rolling starts included since none of us had done an actual open race. mine at the time was 50-flat, though i achieved a 49-high shortly after with a rolling start in a workout. one guy claimed something like a 52, and he was a 3:35 guy--we all claimed BS but seemed like a pretty honest ivy leaguer. we were the two slowest claimed, assuming everyone was honest, at a table that ranged 3:31 to 3:39-ish, and most were under 49, down to a claimed 47-flat if i recall correctly.
in other words, the names listed by the OP would have blown us all out of the water in every distance from 400 on up. end of story.
Not end of story. It’s not the speed that separates the guys these days. It’s their strength. The top guys these days might be the same speed, or maybe even slower, over 400. They are sacrificing some speed to work on their strength.
Seb Coe ran a 46. FAT 400m. He had the WR at 800m and 1500m, and was still significantly faster at 800m than the current elite milers. None of them can likely break 47.
Nick Symmonds couldn’t even break 47 and he broke 1:43.
All the top 1500m/miles can run 48-49. A couple might run in the 47s. Some might only run 50.
for a comparison: i was at a table with some of the best american 1500 runners of the day some time in the 90s and we asked 400 PRs, relay splits and rolling starts included since none of us had done an actual open race. mine at the time was 50-flat, though i achieved a 49-high shortly after with a rolling start in a workout. one guy claimed something like a 52, and he was a 3:35 guy--we all claimed BS but seemed like a pretty honest ivy leaguer. we were the two slowest claimed, assuming everyone was honest, at a table that ranged 3:31 to 3:39-ish, and most were under 49, down to a claimed 47-flat if i recall correctly.
in other words, the names listed by the OP would have blown us all out of the water in every distance from 400 on up. end of story.
Not end of story. It’s not the speed that separates the guys these days. It’s their strength. The top guys these days might be the same speed, or maybe even slower, over 400. They are sacrificing some speed to work on their strength.
i am serious, and don't call me shirley. since we are dealing with speculation (i assume neither of us has had conversations with the current crop of elites mentioned), i am open to the possibility that i'm wrong; however, i'm curious as to your strange generalization that today's athletes are different because of "their strength." what gives you that idea? outside of jakob, the mileage of the others seems pretty much in line with mileage/volume of generations of world record milers going back to the 60s, and even before. some of them considerably less. maybe you think double thresholds are the secret to everything, but even with that, jakob still doesn't have an olympic distance event world record yet (barely cracking the top 20 overall in his "strength" event, the 5k).
but, yeah, i guess it's not the end of the story; still, i know which side of the argument i'd bet large sums of money...
that's still my story, and i'm still sticking to it,
Not end of story. It’s not the speed that separates the guys these days. It’s their strength. The top guys these days might be the same speed, or maybe even slower, over 400. They are sacrificing some speed to work on their strength.
i am serious, and don't call me shirley. since we are dealing with speculation (i assume neither of us has had conversations with the current crop of elites mentioned), i am open to the possibility that i'm wrong; however, i'm curious as to your strange generalization that today's athletes are different because of "their strength." what gives you that idea? outside of jakob, the mileage of the others seems pretty much in line with mileage/volume of generations of world record milers going back to the 60s, and even before. some of them considerably less. maybe you think double thresholds are the secret to everything, but even with that, jakob still doesn't have an olympic distance event world record yet (barely cracking the top 20 overall in his "strength" event, the 5k).
but, yeah, i guess it's not the end of the story; still, i know which side of the argument i'd bet large sums of money...
that's still my story, and i'm still sticking to it,
cush
To answer the question about how I’m measuring strength, I am looking at the 3,000m and 5,000m times of the finalists. Lots of sub-7:30 and sub-13 guys. Way more than the domestic bunch you’re referencing. How many of those guys you spoke to broke 13:20? What about 7:40? Nearly the entire field in Budapest is doing that easily.