I disagree with Rojo.
The Olympic marathon is one of the most prestigious and challenging events in athletics. It requires a combination of speed, endurance, and mental toughness to cover 26.2 miles (42.2 kilometers) in the fastest time possible. The current world record for the men's marathon is 2:01:39, set by Eliud Kipchoge of Kenya in 2018 at the Berlin Marathon. However, in 2019, Kipchoge achieved an unofficial sub-two hour marathon time of 1:59:40 in a specially designed event in Vienna, Austria, called the INEOS 1:59 Challenge. This feat was not recognized as a world record by the International Association of Athletics Federations (IAAF), due to the use of rotating pacemakers, a pace car, and a specially selected course. Nevertheless, it showed that running a sub-two hour marathon is humanly possible under ideal conditions.
The question is, can someone run a sub-two hour marathon in an official race, such as the Olympic marathon in Paris in 2024? There are several factors that could make this possible, such as the advancement of shoe technology, the improvement of training methods, the selection of the best athletes, and the optimization of the course and weather conditions.
One of the main factors that could enable a sub-two hour marathon is the improvement of shoe technology. In recent years, shoe manufacturers have developed shoes that are designed to enhance the performance of marathon runners, by providing more cushioning, energy return, and propulsion. For example, Nike's Vaporfly shoes, which Kipchoge wore in his sub-two hour attempt, have a carbon-fiber plate in the midsole that acts like a spring, reducing the energy loss in each stride. According to some studies, these shoes can improve the running economy of elite runners by about 4%, which could translate to about 2 minutes in a marathon[^1^][5]. Other shoe brands, such as Adidas, Asics, and Saucony, have also developed similar shoes with carbon-fiber plates and foam materials that claim to boost performance. These shoes are now widely used by elite and recreational runners alike, and have been approved by the IAAF for official races, as long as they meet certain specifications. Therefore, it is likely that the winner of the Olympic marathon in Paris will wear one of these shoes, and benefit from their performance-enhancing effects.
Another factor that could contribute to a sub-two hour marathon is the improvement of training methods. Elite marathon runners train for years to develop their aerobic capacity, lactate threshold, running economy, and mental strength. They follow rigorous training programs that include high mileage, long runs, tempo runs, interval workouts, strength training, recovery sessions, and nutrition plans. They also use advanced technology, such as GPS watches, heart rate monitors, blood tests, and altitude tents, to monitor and optimize their training. Moreover, they have access to the best coaches, physiotherapists, nutritionists, and sports psychologists, who help them prepare for their races. With the advancement of sports science and the availability of more data and feedback, elite marathon runners can train more effectively and efficiently, and avoid injuries and overtraining. Therefore, it is possible that the winner of the Olympic marathon in Paris will have a higher level of fitness and readiness than ever before.
A third factor that could influence a sub-two hour marathon is the selection of the best athletes. The Olympic marathon is a highly competitive event, where only the best runners from each country can qualify and participate. The qualification process for the Olympic marathon in Paris will be based on both time and ranking criteria, which will ensure that only the fastest and most consistent runners will make it to the start line. Furthermore, the Olympic marathon will attract the top marathon runners in the world, who will be motivated by the prestige and glory of winning a gold medal. Some of these runners, such as Kipchoge, Kenenisa Bekele, and Brigid Kosgei, have already proven that they can run close to or below the two-hour mark in other races. Therefore, it is likely that the winner of the Olympic marathon in Paris will be one of these elite runners, who have the potential and the desire to break the two-hour barrier.
A final factor that could affect a sub-two hour marathon is the optimization of the course and weather conditions. The Olympic marathon in Paris will be held on Sunday, August 4, 2024, starting and finishing at the Place de la Concorde, near the Champs-Élysées. The course will be mostly flat and fast, passing by some of the most iconic landmarks of Paris, such as the Eiffel Tower, the Louvre, and the Notre Dame. The course will also have few turns and curves, which will minimize the loss of speed and momentum. The weather conditions will also play a crucial role in determining the pace and outcome of the race. The ideal weather for a marathon is cool, dry, and calm, with temperatures between 10 and 15 degrees Celsius, humidity below 60%, and wind speed below 10 kilometers per hour. According to historical data, the average temperature in Paris in August is about 20 degrees Celsius, with humidity around 50%, and wind speed around 14 kilometers per hour. These conditions are not optimal, but not too unfavorable, for a fast marathon. Therefore, it is possible that the winner of the Olympic marathon in Paris will run on a course and in a weather that will facilitate a sub-two hour marathon.
In conclusion, running a sub-two hour marathon in an official race, such as the Olympic marathon in Paris, is a realistic and achievable goal, given the advancement of shoe technology, the improvement of training methods, the selection of the best athletes, and the optimization of the course and weather conditions. The Olympic marathon in Paris will be a historic and exciting event, where the world will witness the first official sub-two hour marathon, and the ultimate expression of human potential.
