If Kiptum does in fact go under 2 officially, who will be remembered in 50 years as the 1st break 2 in the marathon?

It’d be Kiptum.

in 50 years, it will be kiptum, with kipchoge being mentioned as a footnote. but in the near term, it will be kipchoge to the people who don't understand our sport.

Kipchoge

In 50 years, Kipchoge will be 89 and saying every human is definitely limited.

Kiptum will be remembered as the first. And he will be remembered as the GOAT marathoner.

Bannister had two pacers, extremely controversial for the period. Kipchoge showed that it could’ve done. If EK is Bannister, then Kiptum is Landy.

Neither. Nobody will run the marathon anymore.

Kipchoge. In 50 years rules, shoe technology, etc.. will have changed significantly. Nobody will care that Kipchoge's sub 2 wasn't achieved under antiquated rules.

WR marathon time will be low 1:40s by then, so it will be no big deal.

Bobbi Gibb was the first woman known to have run the Boston marathon. She banditted it.
We don’t remember her as the first though. Switzer was the first to do it with a bib, officially, and she is the one everyone references as a ‘first’.

It’ll be Kiptum. And rightfully so.

I think it will depend a lot on how the rest of their careers play out. Say Kiptum runs under 2 hr in his next race in Rotterdam, then gets injured, DNF’s the Olympics and never wins another major or runs under 2:05 again. Meanwhile Kipchoge wins a third Olympic gold, then comes back in 2025 and wins Boson and New York to complete the career major sweep.

Alternatively, 2024 becomes the year father time finally catches up with Kipchoge, while Kiptum wins the first of his three Olympic golds and goes on to win a dozen majors, running under 2 hr multiple times.

What actually happens will probably be somewhere in the middle, and it’s entirely possible neither of them is the first to break 2 hr. They are like Federer and Nadal. There could still be a Djokovic out there.

The INEOS 1:59 Challenge was set up properly as a Global phenomenon as a display of human potential and hyped appropriately.

Then, in the perfect ending to the story they created, Kipchoge ran 1:59:40.

He was the first under 2 hours, regardless of conditions, he proved it’s possible.

The things Kipchoge has achieved has opened up a previously locked part of runner’s brains that they too now believe they can run so much faster, and have been proving that they in fact can.

EPIC.

In 50 years we are just in the hunt for the next water hole. Running as a sport stopped in 2047, just two years after the the internet stopped working.
There will be a lot less people on the planet but they are a lot fitter since they have to walk at lest 15 miles each day to gather some berries and find some water.

Kipchoge. He did it. He will always be the first.

Isn't this question really a specific example of "history is written by the victors?"

What I mean is, the lens being used is artificial already. 42195 meters is completely arbitrary (Yes I know the history), as are the rules under which it was run. You might say the IAAF is the victor here, but really I just mean the "definer" and those of us that watch and follow the sport accept this definition.

But given time and space, perhaps the collapse of IAAF or something like that, and you ask "First human to propel themselves 42195 meters under 7200 elapsed seconds", then Kipchoge fits that definition.

Imagine a world where running mass participation marathons is no longer a thing. People just don't care. Don't even have Olympics any more. The lens all of a sudden would shift, and anyone that studied the ancient history of the marathon going to pick Kipchoge.

In other words, the question you ask, it is implicit you mean "under IAAF rules of the day." Change, that, change the answer.

What happens if Kiplimo beats him to it?

a nykie $ stunt .. zero + zero.