Pretty high after their performance this year. These were fast teams by California standard. Especially Dana Hills and San Clemente. Those two teams had team averages close to equivalent to national championship teams such as Great Oak, Arcadia, and Newbury Park. For them to go 8th, 10th, 17th will look really bad for chances of an at-large the next year.
Southwest is in good shape after their performance at NXN this year.
California performed way below expectations. Their automatic qualifiers would have to perform better next year (2024) for them to in priority line for at-larges in (2025).
Yeah I'm not even sure who still has a competitive team. I don't know enough about non SS teams to be able to tell any hidden bosses lurking or if someone has injured runners returning, so please correct me if I'm wrong
Also some of these teams are only realistically 5-6 deep with their 6-7 runners most likely being a non factor even if they return.
San Clemente gets absolutely demolished losing 5/7 of their team.
Dana Hills loses 4/7 but keeps their low stick.
GO loses 4/7 but also regains a low stick from injury.
Oakdale loses 4/7.
Trabuco hills loses 4/7.
Palisades only loses 2/7. They keep 3 very solid scorers.
Just going to list notable teams I see from here on down the list.
Clovis East loses 4/7 but return 3 scorers.
Arnold O Beckman only loses 3/7 and they seem like a very deep team with the best 7th runner this year.
Jesuit loses 2/7
St. Francis D4 loses 2/7 but their current #6/#7 runners don't seem competitive.
Anything else beyond is too uncertain or teams don't have good times.
I would say top teams next year will be GO (Can never count them out), Palisades, Arnold, Jesuit just based off of current rosters at the state meet.
Teams like Dana could have stud underclassmen waiting to run, but they probably would have run them at the state meet if they were that good
This post was edited 1 minute after it was posted.
They return their #2,3,4 from NXN, and add W Brown who will be their #1. So that’s a solid 1-4. 5th runner will probably be Gump, who has been on the cusp between varsity and JV. Maybe some more people will step up during track.
Dana Hills loses 5 not 4 of their top 7. They only return Noonan and Hunter.
Another boys team that should be mentioned is Buchanan. They took 18th in the merge but returns their 1-6.
MLK high going to be in contention with a lot of returners and having the low stick in Zavaleta will be helpful as they should be another team to watch.
I like what Jesuit has as they have one stud freshman and two that cycled in and out of their varsity lineup so if they can progress they will have some nice depth plus the guys they already got.
I think that there is a possibility that Midwest will send an at-large team. Downers Grove North, Plainfield North, and Plainfield South were the top 3 teams in that region and all of them return most of their scorers
MLK high going to be in contention with a lot of returners and having the low stick in Zavaleta will be helpful as they should be another team to watch.
I like what Jesuit has as they have one stud freshman and two that cycled in and out of their varsity lineup so if they can progress they will have some nice depth plus the guys they already got.
Jesuit is D2, so to sneak in the top 2 in the merge at the state meet, they need to dominate the D2 state meet as much as they could.
I made a write up the best California teams next year. The teams performed really badly up a nxn so despite the teams next year being more talented than (2023 and most certainly 2022), they may not be seen that way by the nxn committee.
Speed ratings have been slightly changed on specific courses (3 mile races in California, the speed ratings are too low depending on the course). These are California speed ratings, and may not be the same as speed ratings from other regions. (I had to speed rate races myself that weren't speed rated) Below is the highest performance speed rating for each runner in the 2023 xc season.
#1 - Great Oak Westin Brown (11) - 188 Jacob Brown (11) - 183 Jack Paradise (11) - 176 Marco Franco (10) - 171 Christian Gump (11) - 169 Carson Lynch (11) - 160 Ruben Sanchez(10) - 154 Nicolas Ovalle (11) - 154 Jack McMurrin (10) - 151 - One of the top 3 California teams to watch out for next year, this team already has their top 5 above 169+. I believe this will be the favorite team coming from California next year. They may be looking for redemption next year, after their 17th place finish at NXN. #2 - Jesuit SJ Isaac Abbott (10) - 177 Matthew Ogilvie (9) - 171 Chase Cressman (11) - 170 Drake Hoferer (10) - 170 Navin Kadel (11) - 162 Brady Blum (11) - 156 Robert Fuentes (11) - 153 Rafael Jopson (9) - 152 Kyle Jackary (10) - 150 Lucas Alberts (9) - 149 Trevor Felix (11) - 149 - Jesuit has the legendary coach, the talent, the depth, everything! This is the one of the three best california team to watch next year. They will be insane! #3 Buchanan Luke S (11) - 180 Jansen G (10) - 176 Max J(11) - 170 Michael P(10) - 170 Deaglan G(11) 167 Andrew Ray(9) - 161 Antonio Benitez(11) - 155 Amani R(10) - 151 Matthew C(10) - 151 Dylan Rea (9) - 151 Jose Rico (9) - 150 - One of the top 3 California teams to watch next year. I believe this team has the best 9th-10th graders. These young runners could potentially make huge jumps next year. Their talent potential is insane. Watch out for Buchanan! #4 - ML King Maximo Zavaleta(10) - 187 Brad Quezado (10) - 177 Brayden Lunetta (11) - 173 Alex Wesołowski (11) - 168 Logan Carlson (10) - 167 Frank Stewart (10) - 156 Zachary Halama (11) - 155 John Sosa(9) - 150 - A new team that has insane talent expect the team to be averaging 175+ at the very start of the season next year. They have 8 solid runners, after that it’s a drop off. #5 - Arnold Beckman Mason Nguyen (11) - 178 Anthony Barrera (11) - 174 Aaron Feaster (11) - 171 Christian Weber (10) - 170 Nolan Barajas (10) - 156 Ryan Barris (9) - 154 - Arnold Beckman is expected to be one of the top California teams for the next season. They have a solid 1-4, all having run above 170+ speed rating. They need a 5th runner to step up, and they will be set for the upcoming season. It is expected that young runners Nolan and Ryan could have a big improvement the next season to be that 5th runner. Expect this team to be averaging in the 175+ at the start of the season. #6 Mira Costa Isaac Faynsod (11) - 177 Carson Ehman (10) - 171 Ian Hansen (11) - 165 Krish Desai (10) - 165 Carson Ehman (10) - 159 Max Mironowicz (10) - 159 JT Kaplan (10) - 155 Ryan Burger (10) - 154 Jack Barrera (11) - 151 - One of the best California squads for next year. The team already has 4 really good runners and tons of talented sophomores. This team can be huge next year. Very dangerous team next year. #7 Trabuco Hills Dylan Jubak (11) - 179 Carsten Williams (11) - 178 Ziyad Adballah (11) - 176 James Kuhn (11) - 152 Lucan Clemons (9) - 152 - Trabuco had insane depth last year and was one of the most talented California teams going into the 2023 season. They had the similar talent levels as ventura did. However, unlike Ventura, Trabuco Hills managed to pull through in the end, coming 5th in the merge, despite their lackluster early season. Losing a huge stack of seniors, Trabuco hills still has one of the best 1-2-3 in California. Hopefully their 4-5 can move up, making them a better team than they were last year, a 77:50 at the California State meet. #8 Woodbridge Aidan Antonio (9) - 177 Aiden Zavala (10) - 176 Inban Kathiravan (10) - 172 Iniyan Kathiravan (10) - 158 Thomas Yohn (9) - 156 - Woodbridge has never been good until recently. Hopefully this fine group of young freshman and sophomores can put together something special. They already have 3 runners above 170s+. This team doesn’t have much depth past their 5th. #9 Tesoro Griffin Kushen (11) - 187 Ryan McNamara (11) - 168 Chase Manning (10) - 164 Mateo Allen-Aguirree(11) - 162 Parker Wolfe (11) - 161 Gabriel Raco (10) - 151 Ezra Bryden (11) - 150 -Tesora has 1 very good runner and insane depth. If they can get 4 more runners consistently above 170+ next year, they can be a powerhouse. #10 Redondo Union Adam Divinity (11) - 183 Alexander Barbarie (11) - 168 Matthew Walter (11) - 162 Joshua Thomas (11) - 159 Kristopher Jarmillo (11) - 159 - The California team with 1 solid runner and 4 more decent runners around 160+. Redondo Union has lots of depths below 155. This team has more depth than Tesora does. #11 Glendora Dylan Flores (11) - 182 Mathias Oliveros (11) - 175 Diago Garcia (11) - 169 Kevin Sandoval (11) - 168 Andrew Carlson (11) - 149 Jeremiah Shahbaz(11) - 144 Eamon Wright(11) - 143 - Glendora is in a similar position as Oaks Christian. Their 1-4 is very fast! All of them have technically gone above 168+, with a solid number 1, Dylan Flores, expected be one of the better runners in the country next year. Hopefully they can find that 5th man that can mix it up with them. #12 Matilda Torres Benjamin Fernandez (10) - 178 Hunter Hannah (10) - 176 Noah Felix (11) - 165 Alfonso Del Toro (10) - 158 Buffalo Soito (11) - 151 Angel Ramirez (10) - 147 - Matilda Torres very young team that has a strong 1-2 punch of sophomores. Lacks depth but has a solid 6 assuming they improve. Most of the team has been running since middle school. #13 Oaks Christian Christian Yoder (11) - 178 Cooper McNee (11) - 178 Josh Mitchell (11) - 167 Vin Krueger (11) - 166 - Oaks Christian has a very strong top 4 runners but they need to find that 5th runner. #14 Palisades Charter Blake Sigworth (10) - 178 Zachary Cohen (10) - 174 Owen Lewicky (11) - 174 Andrew Razo (10) - 155 Ben Barnett (11) - 139 Roland Beckling (10) - 133 - One of the biggest surprises this year. Palisades was 6th in the merge, having come out of nowhere. Many people think this team will do big things next year because most of their squad is young. However, this team lost 2 crucial scorers. This is a very small team and has no depth or talent past their top 4. Hopefully ,they can find a 5th next year and be big
How did Jesuit CA end up in D2? They were D1 last year and during Strangio’s year
Because they lost their section meet the year before and were moved down to D2, which is their actual school size. They were moved up to D1 because they had dominated for many years.
How did Jesuit CA end up in D2? They were D1 last year and during Strangio’s year
Because they lost their section meet the year before and were moved down to D2, which is their actual school size. They were moved up to D1 because they had dominated for many years.
They’re all guys so it’s the equivalent of 2,000 students.
Yeah I'm not even sure who still has a competitive team. I don't know enough about non SS teams to be able to tell any hidden bosses lurking or if someone has injured runners returning, so please correct me if I'm wrong
Also some of these teams are only realistically 5-6 deep with their 6-7 runners most likely being a non factor even if they return.
San Clemente gets absolutely demolished losing 5/7 of their team.
Dana Hills loses 4/7 but keeps their low stick.
GO loses 4/7 but also regains a low stick from injury.
Oakdale loses 4/7.
Trabuco hills loses 4/7.
Palisades only loses 2/7. They keep 3 very solid scorers.
Just going to list notable teams I see from here on down the list.
Clovis East loses 4/7 but return 3 scorers.
Arnold O Beckman only loses 3/7 and they seem like a very deep team with the best 7th runner this year.
Jesuit loses 2/7
St. Francis D4 loses 2/7 but their current #6/#7 runners don't seem competitive.
Anything else beyond is too uncertain or teams don't have good times.
I would say top teams next year will be GO (Can never count them out), Palisades, Arnold, Jesuit just based off of current rosters at the state meet.
Teams like Dana could have stud underclassmen waiting to run, but they probably would have run them at the state meet if they were that good
I wonder if any of those teams can reload next year.
Dana Hills returns 2 scorers (one of them is a national contender). needs 3 more guys to step up
Trabuco returns a dangerous top 3. They just need 2 more guys to step up for this team to do better than this year
San Clemente loses 5. They will be down next year but will also be very young and have good coaching. Maybe the year after that they will be competitive again
I made a write up the best California teams next year. The teams performed really badly up a nxn so despite the teams next year being more talented than (2023 and most certainly 2022), they may not be seen that way by the nxn committee.
Speed ratings have been slightly changed on specific courses (3 mile races in California, the speed ratings are too low depending on the course). These are California speed ratings, and may not be the same as speed ratings from other regions. (I had to speed rate races myself that weren't speed rated) Below is the highest performance speed rating for each runner in the 2023 xc season.
#1 - Great Oak Westin Brown (11) - 188 Jacob Brown (11) - 183 Jack Paradise (11) - 176 Marco Franco (10) - 171 Christian Gump (11) - 169 Carson Lynch (11) - 160 Ruben Sanchez(10) - 154 Nicolas Ovalle (11) - 154 Jack McMurrin (10) - 151 - One of the top 3 California teams to watch out for next year, this team already has their top 5 above 169+. I believe this will be the favorite team coming from California next year. They may be looking for redemption next year, after their 17th place finish at NXN. #2 - Jesuit SJ Isaac Abbott (10) - 177 Matthew Ogilvie (9) - 171 Chase Cressman (11) - 170 Drake Hoferer (10) - 170 Navin Kadel (11) - 162 Brady Blum (11) - 156 Robert Fuentes (11) - 153 Rafael Jopson (9) - 152 Kyle Jackary (10) - 150 Lucas Alberts (9) - 149 Trevor Felix (11) - 149 - Jesuit has the legendary coach, the talent, the depth, everything! This is the one of the three best california team to watch next year. They will be insane! #3 Buchanan Luke S (11) - 180 Jansen G (10) - 176 Max J(11) - 170 Michael P(10) - 170 Deaglan G(11) 167 Andrew Ray(9) - 161 Antonio Benitez(11) - 155 Amani R(10) - 151 Matthew C(10) - 151 Dylan Rea (9) - 151 Jose Rico (9) - 150 - One of the top 3 California teams to watch next year. I believe this team has the best 9th-10th graders. These young runners could potentially make huge jumps next year. Their talent potential is insane. Watch out for Buchanan! #4 - ML King Maximo Zavaleta(10) - 187 Brad Quezado (10) - 177 Brayden Lunetta (11) - 173 Alex Wesołowski (11) - 168 Logan Carlson (10) - 167 Frank Stewart (10) - 156 Zachary Halama (11) - 155 John Sosa(9) - 150 - A new team that has insane talent expect the team to be averaging 175+ at the very start of the season next year. They have 8 solid runners, after that it’s a drop off. #5 - Arnold Beckman Mason Nguyen (11) - 178 Anthony Barrera (11) - 174 Aaron Feaster (11) - 171 Christian Weber (10) - 170 Nolan Barajas (10) - 156 Ryan Barris (9) - 154 - Arnold Beckman is expected to be one of the top California teams for the next season. They have a solid 1-4, all having run above 170+ speed rating. They need a 5th runner to step up, and they will be set for the upcoming season. It is expected that young runners Nolan and Ryan could have a big improvement the next season to be that 5th runner. Expect this team to be averaging in the 175+ at the start of the season. #6 Mira Costa Isaac Faynsod (11) - 177 Carson Ehman (10) - 171 Ian Hansen (11) - 165 Krish Desai (10) - 165 Carson Ehman (10) - 159 Max Mironowicz (10) - 159 JT Kaplan (10) - 155 Ryan Burger (10) - 154 Jack Barrera (11) - 151 - One of the best California squads for next year. The team already has 4 really good runners and tons of talented sophomores. This team can be huge next year. Very dangerous team next year. #7 Trabuco Hills Dylan Jubak (11) - 179 Carsten Williams (11) - 178 Ziyad Adballah (11) - 176 James Kuhn (11) - 152 Lucan Clemons (9) - 152 - Trabuco had insane depth last year and was one of the most talented California teams going into the 2023 season. They had the similar talent levels as ventura did. However, unlike Ventura, Trabuco Hills managed to pull through in the end, coming 5th in the merge, despite their lackluster early season. Losing a huge stack of seniors, Trabuco hills still has one of the best 1-2-3 in California. Hopefully their 4-5 can move up, making them a better team than they were last year, a 77:50 at the California State meet. #8 Woodbridge Aidan Antonio (9) - 177 Aiden Zavala (10) - 176 Inban Kathiravan (10) - 172 Iniyan Kathiravan (10) - 158 Thomas Yohn (9) - 156 - Woodbridge has never been good until recently. Hopefully this fine group of young freshman and sophomores can put together something special. They already have 3 runners above 170s+. This team doesn’t have much depth past their 5th. #9 Tesoro Griffin Kushen (11) - 187 Ryan McNamara (11) - 168 Chase Manning (10) - 164 Mateo Allen-Aguirree(11) - 162 Parker Wolfe (11) - 161 Gabriel Raco (10) - 151 Ezra Bryden (11) - 150 -Tesora has 1 very good runner and insane depth. If they can get 4 more runners consistently above 170+ next year, they can be a powerhouse. #10 Redondo Union Adam Divinity (11) - 183 Alexander Barbarie (11) - 168 Matthew Walter (11) - 162 Joshua Thomas (11) - 159 Kristopher Jarmillo (11) - 159 - The California team with 1 solid runner and 4 more decent runners around 160+. Redondo Union has lots of depths below 155. This team has more depth than Tesora does. #11 Glendora Dylan Flores (11) - 182 Mathias Oliveros (11) - 175 Diago Garcia (11) - 169 Kevin Sandoval (11) - 168 Andrew Carlson (11) - 149 Jeremiah Shahbaz(11) - 144 Eamon Wright(11) - 143 - Glendora is in a similar position as Oaks Christian. Their 1-4 is very fast! All of them have technically gone above 168+, with a solid number 1, Dylan Flores, expected be one of the better runners in the country next year. Hopefully they can find that 5th man that can mix it up with them. #12 Matilda Torres Benjamin Fernandez (10) - 178 Hunter Hannah (10) - 176 Noah Felix (11) - 165 Alfonso Del Toro (10) - 158 Buffalo Soito (11) - 151 Angel Ramirez (10) - 147 - Matilda Torres very young team that has a strong 1-2 punch of sophomores. Lacks depth but has a solid 6 assuming they improve. Most of the team has been running since middle school. #13 Oaks Christian Christian Yoder (11) - 178 Cooper McNee (11) - 178 Josh Mitchell (11) - 167 Vin Krueger (11) - 166 - Oaks Christian has a very strong top 4 runners but they need to find that 5th runner. #14 Palisades Charter Blake Sigworth (10) - 178 Zachary Cohen (10) - 174 Owen Lewicky (11) - 174 Andrew Razo (10) - 155 Ben Barnett (11) - 139 Roland Beckling (10) - 133 - One of the biggest surprises this year. Palisades was 6th in the merge, having come out of nowhere. Many people think this team will do big things next year because most of their squad is young. However, this team lost 2 crucial scorers. This is a very small team and has no depth or talent past their top 4. Hopefully ,they can find a 5th next year and be big
I think Clovis East should be mentioned too. They took 11th in the merge at the state meet and bring back their #2-4, and also they have a sophomore who didn’t run at the state meet but ran a 16:45 at Clovis and was their #3 guy there. Now they just need a 5th runner like many other teams in this list do
Another team to watch out for is Bellarmine. They were one of the best teams in CA when Peattie and the Toppers were there. This year this team consisted of mostly juniors
MLK high going to be in contention with a lot of returners and having the low stick in Zavaleta will be helpful as they should be another team to watch.
I like what Jesuit has as they have one stud freshman and two that cycled in and out of their varsity lineup so if they can progress they will have some nice depth plus the guys they already got.
I would say top teams next year will be GO (Can never count them out), Palisades, Arnold, Jesuit just based off of current rosters at the state meet.
Teams like Dana could have stud underclassmen waiting to run, but they probably would have run them at the state meet if they were that good
palisades will actually be worse than last year. Yes they are the only team from top 10 last year to graduate only 2 guys, but both of them were scorers and the gap behind 5 last year was huge. And one of their returning scorers doesn’t run track
Based on Great Oak’s time trial, they have a strong top 3 but their 4&5 will actually need work.