With Kenya and Ethiopia seemingly unlikely to implement a trial race (although Ethiopia had a 35k trial last Olympics) it's interesting to consider who might be selected for the teams, arguably the best two teams in the marathoning world. Below I ranked who I thought was should be selected. Who would you pick?
Men
Kenya
1. Eliud Kipchoge
2. Kelvin Kiptum
3. Evans Chebet
4. Benson Kipruto
5. Geoffrey Kamworor
6. Alexander Mutiso - to race Valencia
7. Vincent Kipkemoi
8. Joshua Belet
9. Amos Kipruto
10. Bernard Koech
+ Wildcard - Kibiwott Kandie to race Valencia
If Chebet won NYC this autumn it would seem clearcut but his withdrawal (knee injury?) slightly changes things but I think he still deserves it as of now. Albert Korir or Edward Cheserek could win NYC and enter the list. Samwel Mailu races Frankfurt this weekend and some top guys could also enter the top-10 in Valencia with a big performance.
Ethiopia
1. Leul Gebresilasie - to race Valencia
2. Chalu Deso - to race Valencia
3. Tamirat Tola - to race NYC
4. Tadese Takele
5. Sissay Lemma - to race Valencia
6. Shura Kitata - to race NYC
7. Birhanu Legese
8. Andualem Belay
9. Mosinet Geremew
10. Tsegaye Getachew
+ Wildcard - Kenenisa Bekele - maybe racing Valencia?? After not being selected the past 2 Olympics will he get a spot here, you never know with Kenenisa
This was a bit difficult considering how some of the top guys from ~2019 have struggled/ been inconsistent in recent years. I have a few in there (Geremew, Kitata, Legese) as well as some new emerging forces like Takele and Belay. In the end I thought the top 3 are the most consistent. Could change considering many are planning on still racing this year including Jemal Yimer and Amedework Walelegn in NYC.
Women
Kenya
1. Peres Jepchirchir - to race NYC
2. Hellen Obiri - to race NYC
3. Ruth Chepngetich
4. Joyciline Jepkosgei
5. Brigid Kosgei - to race NYC
6. Sharon Lokedi - to race NYC
7. Sheila Chepkirui
8. Rosemary Wanjiru
9. Dorcas Tuitoek
10. Judith Korir
+ Wildcard - Jackline Chelal - won Seville in 2:20:29 after very few WA race results and no birthdate listed - to race Valencia. A lot could change in NYC, however, I feel at the moment the top three would create a team with good speed, experience and tactical race success.
Ethiopia
1. Amane Beriso
2. Tigst Assefa
3. Gotytom Gebresilasie
4. Alemu Megertu
5. Letesenbet Gidey - to race NYC
6. Yelemzerf Yahualaw
7. Meseret Belete
8. Tsehay Gemechu - to race Valencia
9. Genzebe Dibaba
10. Almaz Ayana - to race Valencia
Wildcard on the list but Gidey if she decides she wants to race the Olympic marathon however it seems she will only do track there?
Apologies for any errors like missing someone. Kenya seems likely to select their team at the end of the year while Ethiopia perhaps likely to wait until the spring season is through. We'll see how this plays out, any thoughts?
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