Yes. The way it is set up - the athletes who unlock the olympic spots are not the ones who are Olympians, they earned access to those olympic spots for the country. The trials will determine who gets to fill the spots and be olympians
It's likely that there will be 3 US men in the rankings by the end of the window, BUT let's not forget that there'll be athletes who have not yet run a marathon and who could get auto Q, and athletes who've only run one qualifying race (and therefore don't have a ranking), but who'll be racing one (including those who'll only need to run a fast half) sometime in the next however many months are left. (Ireland, for example, had 5 marathoners in Tokyo, and 6 in Rio, but don't have a single one, male or female, in or near the rankings at this point. Expect that to change.)
Very likely the US will qualify 3 by the final deadline(may 5) but also very likely the trials will be run with the all of the top 3 not know for certain they are going. Fauble will most likely be out of the top 64 by Jan.30. So that leaves only 2 guaranteed spots to the top 3 finishers at the trials provided they have run 2:11:30 (note: Fauble has not). The 3rd selection would have to wait until May 5 to be guaranteed their spot. At that point they will qualify under 2 scenerios 1) there is an additional American in the top 80 (on points or 2:08:10) and they have run 2:11:30 (hence they replace that athlete) 2) they themselves are in the top 80. The question for USATF in setting their criteria would be; if Mantz or Young are 3rd do they get to keep the guaranteed spot they've secured by running auto standard before Jan.30 or can another 2:11:30 athlete finishing 1st or 2nd take that spot and force them to sit on the fence until May 5?
Uh no. It started Nov. 1st, 2022. There are races factored into the ranking spots on there included from before that. Why? I do not know. You can read it yourself.
Very likely the US will qualify 3 by the final deadline(may 5) but also very likely the trials will be run with the all of the top 3 not know for certain they are going. Fauble will most likely be out of the top 64 by Jan.30. So that leaves only 2 guaranteed spots to the top 3 finishers at the trials provided they have run 2:11:30 (note: Fauble has not). The 3rd selection would have to wait until May 5 to be guaranteed their spot. At that point they will qualify under 2 scenerios 1) there is an additional American in the top 80 (on points or 2:08:10) and they have run 2:11:30 (hence they replace that athlete) 2) they themselves are in the top 80. The question for USATF in setting their criteria would be; if Mantz or Young are 3rd do they get to keep the guaranteed spot they've secured by running auto standard before Jan.30 or can another 2:11:30 athlete finishing 1st or 2nd take that spot and force them to sit on the fence until May 5?
The only races before Nov.1,2022 that are included are the last version of Area Championships (e.g. European Champs in '22). This is correct per the ranking rules.