2023 HIGH SCHOOL - TEAM PROJECTIONS

Wayzata is in Minnesota, not Wisconsin

Apologies, I knew that I must have just gotten overwhelmed with all of the teams.

i fixed it

How do you have Canyon on there? They won’t even be in the top 2 in TX.

I think Stevens Point WI should be up there as well. They qualified last year and return all of their scorers.
They return:
9:08, 9:12, 9:17, 9:27, and another 4:27 1600 guy who has a 15:46 XC 5k PR.

Herriman should be on there too.
They did lose 4 guys and are coached by Doug Soles so they are in contention to win NXN.
They return 9:14, 9:16, 9:19, 3 more guys between 4:25 and 4:30, and also a 9:28 transfer from NJ.

Kind of surprised not to see any California teams on in the boys rankings. There always seems to be one or two that finishes in the top 10. I think that right now, Ventura is the best of them all.
They return 8:51 (his last name is FastHorse), 9:01, 9:24, 9:27, and 9:35. All of them are seniors.
The only problem is, they got a new coach so we don’t know how this will affect the team.
Last year there were 3 CA teams that finished in the top 7 at nationals.

Carmel only took 5th at NXR and lost Mathison and their #6. They did have a varsity guy missing at NXR (Leedke) but he graduated. Plus, who knows if they will even be #1 in Indiana. Noblesville could challenge them for a state title.

Jesuit LA lost 3 of their varsity guys and based on RunningLane, they haven’t shown that they are able to perform well at a national level. Plus, who knows if they will even do NXR given how close it is to their state meet.

I think I would include Cuthbertson in the top 10. 8th last year at NXN and returning the following 1600 (converted) meter times: 4:39 / 4:41 / 4:49 / 5:07 / 5:24. I know the 1600 is not always a great predictor for xc but worth considering.

Cuthbertson actually is in the top 10 in the TullyRunners rankings

In their division of Texas, they no question will be. They return a Top 10 team in the nation based off of returning times, which played a heavy factor in this list.

California has been controlled by Newbury Park ever since 2018. There are no California teams that will compete for NXN, simple, if you think differently then u do not understand how Team Projections work. There is also no California runners (Including Fasthorse) that will be Top 7 NXN runners.

Carmel raced poorly at NXR, I cannot argue that. But how can you make that seem like they are a bad team? They beat Hinsdale Central and Plainfield South earlier in the season, and they were 1 and 2 at NXR Midwest. Sure they lose Mathison, but they return runners 2-5 and #7. Their 2 runner last year could win NXR Midwest and it wouldn’t be a major surprise.

You cannot always look at last year’s performance to judge Jesuit. Sure they might not do NXR, but this isn’t just an NXN preview, it’s just the overall season. Jesuit was no question the #2 team in the nation last year until postseason came along. They return most runners from that historic team.

No question would be an honorable mention for me, multiple teams that could’ve taken 7-10 spots

Another thing. Did you say that Herriman could compete for NXN simply because they’re coached by Doug Soles?

Sure he was a phenomenal coach at Great Oak, but he was given outstanding 100+ member teams to work with. He doesn’t have this at Herriman.

There returning class might not even make it to NXN let alone compe

TullyRunners rankings (boys and girls team rankings) are up now

Downers Grove North is only 17th here

I think they're gonna surprise everyone and be in the top 5 at NXN. We'll see!

I just say that b/c last year, TullyRunners predicted HCHS at #28 and they actually came in at #8. Also, TullyRunners didn't predict Plainfield or DGN would even make the NXN meet? And they both did. Those are two schools from Illinois.

I just don't think TullyRunners is that accurate.

The thing is, Meylan doesn’t take track times into account much. Based on those rankings, it looks like it’s going to be a big 4-5 gap. But they return 4 varsity guys and another guy who ran a 9:33 3200 who will be a difference maker.
17th is too low for Downers Grove North.

NW came in about how I expected from what I’ve seen, but we’re talking about HS kids who are still developing so of course there will be hits and misses. For example, Rocky Mountain will probably outperform their prediction because the team is massive with a good recent record of runner development, but you can’t really predict a better result without knowing which of 20 guys who might explode actually do it. And there are a lot of teams with strong rankings that are one stress fracture from no longer looking like a national caliber team.

tullyrunners does about the best that can be done with the information available at the time, IMO.

In last year’s preseason TR rankings, Hinsdale Central was 25th and Plainfield South was 30th (the last spot in the TullyRunners national rankings)
DGN really surprised people last year. They lost their 1-2-3 from 2021 and then made NXN and performed well there.

TullyRunners actually has the best national rankings out there.

Preseason rankings are never really accurate. No one knows what other teams did over the summer, or what was changed in the training

Tully isn’t a incredible good source.

DGN returns nearly everyone from their NXN Qualifying Team and has two guys go 4:07 and 4:12 last year.

Also have the #2 Sophomore Class in Illinois only behind Plainfield North

Palatine IL has a really good sophomore class too

Rocky Mountain was not in any national or regional preseason rankings last year. But they ended up third at NXR Northwest (the hard region). What helped them do so well is the fact that they got a transfer from Texas who scored for them

Based on this page, JSerra Catholic got 3 new transfers:
Chiara Bonomi - from Cathedral Catholic
Chloe Elbaz - from Xavier College Prep
Sophie Polay - from Santa Margarita

And they are ranked 6th because of that

Ventura boys team is #5 on TR rankings. Thoughts on that?

I’m a big Illinois guy, and I have it going like this ⬇️ ⬇️

1. Plainfield North (Significantly Ahead)

2. Downers Grove North (More successful on the track than in cross)

3. Arlington Heights Hersey

4. Edwardsville

5. Palatine

My biggest problem with Palatine is that they are heavily carried by Alex Krieg, which in the long run won’t be a successful way to win