Early ny state xc predictions?

Saratoga will win both the boys and girls Class A.
Burnt Hills will win the boys Class B.
St Anthony’s will win the boys CHSAA championship

Other Class A boys teams to watch

Auburn

Fairport (this team is gonna be mostly seniors)

Corning (lost 5 seniors from a top-half NXN-finishing team, but returns 4 sub-10 guys. If they find a 5th it will make things interesting. 2024 looks great for this team though)

Saratoga and St Anthony's boys seem the best, but Auburn will be better than anybody expects. They were very young last year, with two freshmen in their scoring group. Fairport could be in the mix. FM looks to be even weaker than last year.

Individually, it's wide open. McGinn was the best underclassman last year, but he seems to have plateaued... a number of other returners have far surpassed his track performances, anyway.

For the girls, Saratoga is an easy call. FM has very little behind Sullivan, but the rest of the state is weak enough to keep them in the mix. Auburn might push them in Section 3. Bethlehem returns a lot of scorers. Nobody else really stands out.

Another issue that McGinn will face is that he will lose his training partners Otis and Martinez, so he will need to adjust to training by himself, unless some other top NY guy transfers in.
And yes, his team is going to be even weaker. They won’t make it to states. They lost to Auburn at sections last year and Auburn didn’t graduate anyone.

North Rockland boys team is stepping up. Probably won’t make it to NXN this year but we may see it there in the future.

Tuohy - 9 - 9:27
Chery - 9 - 9:28
Curry - 11 - 10:02
D Piccone - 10 - 10:02
T Piccone - 9 - 10:30
Affoumani - 10 - 4:39

Here is what FM boys team returns
McGinn - 9:19 - 12
Ditre - 10:12 - 11
Beecher - 4:42 - 10
Patrick - 5:13 - 12
MacBlane - 5:14 - 10

Girls team
Sullivan - 4:47 1500 - 11
Khalifeh - 4:48 1500 - 12
Beecher - 5:15 1500 - 12
Pandori-Howell - 5:21 1500 - 9
McDonald - 2:28 800 - 10
Walters - 11:23 3000 - 11
Ryan - 19:06 5k - 10
Knutsen - 5:40i 1500 - 12

Bethlehem Central returns 4 of their top 5 from NXN and another girl who ran a 19:28 XC 5k / 5:11 1500.

That is likely not a top-20 team in the state. Maybe not top-30.

So out of 11 8th-grade boys (one of whom seemed to be pretty talented) in 2021, they only got one to run XC in 2022. That doesn't bode well.

It looks like they could have a very small boys team this year, too.

And the one that continued the sport was not even the top guy who won that modified race by over 30 seconds (Winnowicz).
The one that continued the sport is MacBlane. He was FM’s fifth 8th grader in that race, and was behind two 7th graders.

And yes, it won’t be surprising if the boys team’s even smaller than last year, unless lots of freshmen and new guys come in.
Half of last year’s team was seniors.

PSAL Top Returning teams that could contend:

Brooklyn Tech HS =

Elijah Gentry SR - 9:34 steeple 7th outdoor states / 4:22 mile / 165 speed rating

Travis Wolfe Thompson SR - 2:31 1k 5th indoor states / 1:54 / 4:26 / 172 speed rating

Alexander Jones SO - 4:29 mile / 9:53 / 2:01 / 134 speed rating

Raymond Walls SR - 1:59 / 4:34 / 151 speed rating

Max Haidt SR - 4:31 / 154 speed rating

Hunter College HS =

Shane Murphy SR - 9:03 2nd indoor states / 4:16 1600 / 6th at feds 179 speed rating

Henry Koike Siera SR - 4:17 6th indoor states/ 9:24 2mi / 1:58 / 9th at feds 179 speed rating

Isaac Cohen SR - 4:21 / 1:59 / 153 speed rating

Oliver Flor JR - 10:09 steeple / 2:03 / 145 speed rating

Pierce Seigel SO - 10:14 / 4:48 / 6:39 2k steeple / 146 speed rating

Looks like they allowed an 8th grader in the section 3 duals. 5:32 in the 1600. Nothing special but lots of time to improve

ny.milesplit.com

Section 3 Duals 2023 - FM-Bville-Henn

MileSplits official FM-Bville-Henn formatted results for the 2023 Section 3 Duals in NY.

Link:ny.milesplit.com/meets/547167-section-...

Saratoga girls are going to continue to dominate for years to come still.

My daughter ran a road race against their 7th and 8th graders a couple weeks ago. They had 7 of the top 8 spots in the girls 11-14 age group. First six of them were all sub 20:00. I think the fastest one was about 18:50.

That's what just showed up for that road race. Who knows what else they have that may have run varsity track this season.

Arlington is a dark horse, but I agree with above posters.

Excited to see how Tuohy's soph year will go. Running a 16:38 on Bowdon as a freshman is insane.

Saint Anthony's Returners

Morelli 4:20/9:15

McLaughlin 1:57/4:19

Wigutow 4:29/9:29

MacPherson 4:24/9:39

Kennedy 4:35/10:05

Melloy 4:39/9:59

Curley 4:53/10:17

Monroe Woodbury
Jibb - 12 - 9:41 3200
Catherwood - 11 - 9:44 3200
Golio - 11 - 9:50 3200
Ryan - 11 - 10:24 3200
Haag - 10 - 4:54 1600
Saldana - 12 - 4:55 1600
Mansuco - 10 - 4:58 1600
Ranganathan - 10 - 4:58 1600
Belmont - 10 - 2:04 800
Costello - 11 - 4:58 1600
This team might be a little down next year, but it will be a team to watch out for the following years

They do have a solid top 3 for this year (Jibb, Catherwood, and Golio). Golio dropped more than 5 minutes in a 5K from 2021 to 2022. We may see others on the team do something like that

Burnt Hills was pretty weak last year, but class B overall was terrible. Do they keep the streak alive for another year?

Burnt Hills should be able to win Class B this year. They dominated it last year and lost only 2 seniors. But I don’t think they will qualify for NXN.