Ranking every state for xc 2023 based on 3200 meter times

High School Running Distance

1 year ago 05/23/2023 7:22pm EDT

I thought it would be need to put together this data sheet. The first number is the average 3200 meter time of the top 5 returning runners in the state. The second number is the number of participants in the state for the 3200 meters outdoors. Times include both indoor and outdoor times. Conservative altitude conversions were used as well. Some states such as Hawaii did not have enough data for compiling a result.

CA: 8:49 (7632)
UT 8:56 (902)
CO 8:56(936)
FL 9:00(1872)
IN 9:01(1178)
MI 9:01(2550)
TX 9:01(4141)
NC 9:02 (899)
WA 9:03 (1793)
PA 9:03 (1505)
VA 9:05 (982)
NY 9:05 (1217)
OR 9:05 (1188)
IL 9:07(2403)
TN 9:08 (405)
OH 9:08(492)
WV 9:10 (286)
ID 9:11(607)
MN 9:11 (1536)
WI 9:11 (1200)
CT 9:13(619)
NJ 9:13 (1134)
IO 9:14(719)
GE 9:15(1551)
SC 9:16 (675)
KY 9:17 (498)
AL: 9:17(588)
KA 9:17(665)
MO 9:17 (844)
NE 9:19(724)
AR 9:21(368)
AZ 9:21(952)
NV 9:25 (329)
MT 9:29(434)
MD 9:27 (777)
LA 9:30(386)
SD 9:33 (351)
ND 9:37(246)
WY 939 (186)
MS 9:39 (379)
DE 9:43(80)
DC 9:43 (85)
NH 9:48 (142)
NM 9:51 (272)
AK: 9:55(170)
ME 9:55(250)

1 year ago 05/23/2023 7:23pm EDT

re: trailrunner86

someone should do some math based on the population of each state to find the best runners per capita

1 year ago 05/23/2023 7:34pm EDT

re: postpost

postpost wrote:
someone should do some math based on the population of each state to find the best runners per capita

That would be nice. The easy part is the math, the hard is the data. Is it population of the state or population of HS students in the state? And what do we use for the running time? Are we looking at number of sub 10 3200m runners per 1,000 HS runners, HS students, overall population, or something else? Where would one find this data without double counting or omitting athletes?

1 year ago 05/23/2023 10:47pm EDT

re: trailrunner86

Idaho is actually Heemeyer at 8:59, Athay at 9:12, Lucas at 9:12, Ringert at 9:13 and Cervi-Skinner at 9:13 for 9:09 average.

Athay is from 2021, but he’s still a returner.

1 year ago 05/23/2023 11:25pm EDT

re: trailrunner86

trailrunner86 wrote:
I thought it would be need to put together this data sheet. The first number is the average 3200 meter time of the top 5 returning runners in the state. The second number is the number of participants in the state for the 3200 meters outdoors. Times include both indoor and outdoor times. Conservative altitude conversions were used as well. Some states such as Hawaii did not have enough data for compiling a result.
CA: 8:49 (7632)
UT 8:56 (902)
CO 8:56(936)
FL 9:00(1872)
IN 9:01(1178)
MI 9:01(2550)
TX 9:01(4141)
NC 9:02 (899)
WA 9:03 (1793)
PA 9:03 (1505)
VA 9:05 (982)
NY 9:05 (1217)
OR 9:05 (1188)
IL 9:07(2403)
TN 9:08 (405)
OH 9:08(492)
WV 9:10 (286)
ID 9:11(607)
MN 9:11 (1536)
WI 9:11 (1200)
CT 9:13(619)
NJ 9:13 (1134)
IO 9:14(719)
GE 9:15(1551)
SC 9:16 (675)
KY 9:17 (498)
AL: 9:17(588)
KA 9:17(665)
MO 9:17 (844)
NE 9:19(724)
AR 9:21(368)
AZ 9:21(952)
NV 9:25 (329)
MT 9:29(434)
MD 9:27 (777)
LA 9:30(386)
SD 9:33 (351)
ND 9:37(246)
WY 939 (186)
MS 9:39 (379)
DE 9:43(80)
DC 9:43 (85)
NH 9:48 (142)
NM 9:51 (272)
AK: 9:55(170)
ME 9:55(250)

Did you convert all the times for CO and UT to sea level?

1 year ago 05/23/2023 11:35pm EDT

re: it is time

yes, for state and byu invitational i -12 seconds. for colorado's state meet -20 seconds.

1 year ago 05/23/2023 11:53pm EDT

re: trailrunner86

trailrunner86 wrote:
I thought it would be need to put together this data sheet. The first number is the average 3200 meter time of the top 5 returning runners in the state. The second number is the number of participants in the state for the 3200 meters outdoors. Times include both indoor and outdoor times. Conservative altitude conversions were used as well. Some states such as Hawaii did not have enough data for compiling a result.
CA: 8:49 (7632)
UT 8:56 (902)
CO 8:56(936)
FL 9:00(1872)
IN 9:01(1178)
MI 9:01(2550)
TX 9:01(4141)
NC 9:02 (899)
WA 9:03 (1793)
PA 9:03 (1505)
VA 9:05 (982)
NY 9:05 (1217)
OR 9:05 (1188)
IL 9:07(2403)
TN 9:08 (405)
OH 9:08(492)
WV 9:10 (286)
ID 9:11(607)
MN 9:11 (1536)
WI 9:11 (1200)
CT 9:13(619)
NJ 9:13 (1134)
IO 9:14(719)
GE 9:15(1551)
SC 9:16 (675)
KY 9:17 (498)
AL: 9:17(588)
KA 9:17(665)
MO 9:17 (844)
NE 9:19(724)
AR 9:21(368)
AZ 9:21(952)
NV 9:25 (329)
MT 9:29(434)
MD 9:27 (777)
LA 9:30(386)
SD 9:33 (351)
ND 9:37(246)
WY 939 (186)
MS 9:39 (379)
DE 9:43(80)
DC 9:43 (85)
NH 9:48 (142)
NM 9:51 (272)
AK: 9:55(170)
ME 9:55(250)

I am pleased that Minnesota is 19th, not bad for a cold-weather state!

1 year ago 05/24/2023 12:14am EDT

re: 1320

pleasantly surprised with NC being 8th. Won't have a national level talent like Rocky Hansen next year (unless someone takes a huge step up) but the depth should be really solid with a few front runners used in this ranking and a bunch of sub 9:20 guys again.

9 months ago 10/16/2023 11:38pm EDT

re: bumblebee

bump.

which states are performing as expected? which states are underperforming?

9 months ago 10/16/2023 11:47pm EDT

re: which states live up to hype

With only 405 performances, Tennessee has to be over performing..

9 months ago 10/16/2023 11:49pm EDT

re: DougC

DougC wrote:
With only 405 performances, Tennessee has to be over performing..

For this cross country season, not last track season.

9 months ago 10/17/2023 12:14am EDT

re: which states live up to hype

which states live up to hype wrote:
bump.
which states are performing as expected? which states are underperforming?

I can only speak really for NC, but the state is performing about as i expected nobody at Rocky Hansen's level from last year but a few really solid runners. Just maybe not the names i expected. Dawson Reeves was the heir apparent in my mind running behind Rocky Hansen last year for Christ School and having PR's of 1:52/4:08/8:57 (800/1600/3200). It felt like he would be right there around the top of NC but he's been a bit slow out of the gates this season based on (my own) expectations. Not bad by any stretch 9th at The Eye Opener in SC but ~45 seconds behind the winner, 11th at Adidas Challenge in NC but ~35 seconds behind the winner. Looking at his milesplit maybe he's just a better track guy than an XC guy.

The standouts in NC have been Noah Valyo, Luke Liming and Tyler Surface, none of whom were top 5 based on 3200 times last year for this thread. Valyo in particular has leveled up, winning the season opener for most in NC at Friday Night Lights by 15 seconds over 2nd place, 3rd at Adidas Challenge in 14:48. 10 seconds behind winner, and impressively won Great American in 14:42 beating a really solid field including the Belen Jesuit guys.

9 months ago 10/17/2023 12:17am EDT

re: bumblebee

bumblebee wrote:
which states live up to hype wrote:
bump.
which states are performing as expected? which states are underperforming?
I can only speak really for NC, but the state is performing about as i expected nobody at Rocky Hansen's level from last year but a few really solid runners. Just maybe not the names i expected. Dawson Reeves was the heir apparent in my mind running behind Rocky Hansen last year for Christ School and having PR's of 1:52/4:08/8:57 (800/1600/3200). It felt like he would be right there around the top of NC but he's been a bit slow out of the gates this season based on (my own) expectations. Not bad by any stretch 9th at The Eye Opener in SC but ~45 seconds behind the winner, 11th at Adidas Challenge in NC but ~35 seconds behind the winner. Looking at his milesplit maybe he's just a better track guy than an XC guy.
The standouts in NC have been Noah Valyo, Luke Liming and Tyler Surface, none of whom were top 5 based on 3200 times last year for this thread. Valyo in particular has leveled up, winning the season opener for most in NC at Friday Night Lights by 15 seconds over 2nd place, 3rd at Adidas Challenge in 14:48. 10 seconds behind winner, and impressively won Great American in 14:42 beating a really solid field including the Belen Jesuit guys.

that is one heck of a level up! Very impressive for North Caroline. Excited to see what these can do at the national level / track season.

9 months ago 10/17/2023 10:57am EDT

re: trailrunner86

Cool data. Are there any states where it is obvious all their results aren’t there? Maybe Massachusetts?

Maybe not worth the effort, but to be thorough you could upload the 3k and 2 mile times and convert them and also check Milesplit to look for times athletic.net missed. I’m actually surprised Milesplit and/or Athletic.net don’t already let you click a button and have it run the conversions and rank them all together.

All of that leads to my thought that a per capita analysis might be tough to make accurate.

9 months ago 10/17/2023 10:59am EDT

re: knees_on_borrowed_time

Yes Massachusetts is a state where I missed some times. I am sure there are others. I don't have milesplit account

9 months ago 10/17/2023 11:09am EDT

re: trailrunner86

This is a wonderful post OP - I graduated high school nearly 20 years ago in CT and remember Gavin Coombs being a legend in the state for putting up a 9:1x 3200m. Seeing that it has become such a common feat even in the rising classes really shows how far performances have come over the last few years.

9 months ago 10/17/2023 11:56am EDT

re: trailrunner86

trailrunner86 wrote:
I thought it would be need to put together this data sheet. The first number is the average 3200 meter time of the top 5 returning runners in the state. The second number is the number of participants in the state for the 3200 meters outdoors. Times include both indoor and outdoor times. Conservative altitude conversions were used as well. Some states such as Hawaii did not have enough data for compiling a result.
CA: 8:49 (7632)
UT 8:56 (902)
CO 8:56(936)
FL 9:00(1872)
IN 9:01(1178)
MI 9:01(2550)
TX 9:01(4141)
NC 9:02 (899)
WA 9:03 (1793)
PA 9:03 (1505)
VA 9:05 (982)
NY 9:05 (1217)
OR 9:05 (1188)
IL 9:07(2403)
TN 9:08 (405)
OH 9:08(492)
WV 9:10 (286)
ID 9:11(607)
MN 9:11 (1536)
WI 9:11 (1200)
CT 9:13(619)
NJ 9:13 (1134)
IO 9:14(719)
GE 9:15(1551)
SC 9:16 (675)
KY 9:17 (498)
AL: 9:17(588)
KA 9:17(665)
MO 9:17 (844)
NE 9:19(724)
AR 9:21(368)
AZ 9:21(952)
NV 9:25 (329)
MT 9:29(434)
MD 9:27 (777)
LA 9:30(386)
SD 9:33 (351)
ND 9:37(246)
WY 939 (186)
MS 9:39 (379)
DE 9:43(80)
DC 9:43 (85)
NH 9:48 (142)
NM 9:51 (272)
AK: 9:55(170)
ME 9:55(250)

3200 meter times on the track to rank cross-country? I had a team that finished top 5 in the NY State Federation Meet and only 2 of them had a 3200 meter time that they ran seriously.

The others were jog throughs in dual meets.

Speed ratings is the only valid method and maybe someone with the motivation should ask Bill Meylan from Tully Runners how it works and expand its use.

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