Ran 14:00 for 5000m 10 years ago. Can I run 2:32 for Marathon by end of 2023?

You cannot. Anyone who can would not be asking.

yea, definitely possible

1) You ran "about 14:00" in college? Who says something like that? There is no "about." You ran a time. What was it?

2) Your 20 pounds of extra weight is likely 5 pounds of muscle IF you have actually been lifting (but the "about 14:00" comment has me wondering) and 15 pounds of fat. Don't kid yourself.

3) So, you want to predict a marathon based on a 5,000 PR (that we don't even really know what it is) from 10 years ago and what appears to have been a long run back then of 16 miles? Have you ever run further than 16 miles? You know you've got 10.2 more miles to go after that, right?

4) Your 10-mile tempo runs from 10 years ago mean nothing. You are older. You are fatter. You don't really have any experience with running a race even close to the marathon distance (or so it seems), and you are making some pretty big assumptions on your ability to handle both the training and the race itself.

5) Knowing that the marathon is usually at least a disappointment if not a disaster the first time out, that you weren't specific with your 5,000 time from 10 years ago and you are older and fatter without much running recently, I'm going to say no, you have no chance to run that time in 2023 for the marathon.

Good luck though.

Maybe he wants to stay anonymous. Does it matter if it was 13:58 or 14:04 or 14:06?

Maybe, maybe not. What does a time of 2:32 represent to you? Setting an arbitrary time goal based on very limited information seems counterproductive.

First, I would enter a 5k race to see what kind of engine you currently are working with. Then, increase the frequency of your runs to start dropping weight and building a better base. After a few months, race a 10K or half, which will give you a much better idea of what is possible this year.

I ran 15:19 in college and ran 2:36 marathon at age 28 on 35MPW.

I ran 15:19 in college and ran 2:36 marathon at age 28 on 35MPW.

Ignore flagpole.

OP, if you put on 5 lb of muscle and 10pounds of fat, but stayed aerobically healthy, 232 is pretty conservative (given a decent course/weather).

In fact, I'd structure your year like this

12 weeks: get in shape to train

next 12 Weeks: get in shape to run a decent half marathon

Next 2-4 weeks: Recover

Next 12-16 weeks: marathon cycle.

maybe that means your average mileage per phase goes like this, 45/60/40/70. If you lose half the weight, I'd put your HM at 111 and your marathon at 230:00

"About 14:00" is fast...even if it was 1415-1420.

It's very possible. Hard to know & would guess that you had a little more speed than endurance in college? The tempos in the 5:20s & long runs at 6-flat are solid. A well trained 14-flat 5k runner should have a sub-5:00 pace threshold. If a 14:00 5k runner sticks it out after college they have sub-2:15 marathon potential. A lot of college programs aren't necessarily doing a ton of threshold stuff so it usually takes a good runner a few years of distance training to match their short & long distance PRs.

Talent doesn't go away. Having some consistency helps. If you get back into it there's no reason you can't get there in a couple years. Is there a reason you've picked out 2:32? Train hard and maybe mid-2:30s happens. Stick with it & sub-2:30 & winning a local marathon will happen.

I have a friend that ran 13:40 for 5000 and broke 2:30 on 30 miles per week. Admittedly he knows this wasn't the best Marathon training and could have done way better on an actual Marathon training plan but it shows what is capable with that talent.

One of the worst posts I've read on this site and I've been reading this since 2002.

Keira D’Amato never broke 15:00, then had two kids, then she ran 2:19.

Of course you can run 2:32 or much faster.

Wrong to ignore my correct comments.

Not all 5,000 meter guys (from 10 years ago no less) can do a decent marathon. The guy did long runs of 16 miles 10 years ago, and now you want him to bump it up to 70 MPW by fall? Good luck!

OP, you go train for the marathon in November or December and run it. Prove me wrong. Use me as motivation if you like. I'm rooting for you!

the potential is still there, yes, if that's what you're asking.

i suspect if you were extremely motivated and had the financing you could dream about a time ten minutes faster.

it really comes down to how many sacrifices are you willing to make in order to create as close to perfect of an ideal internal/external environment.

Really Jan? You said the same about Phil and he ran a horrible marathon.

It's unlikely, but if you're motivated, disciplined and respond well enough to a patient and methodical build-up - it could be possible.

I do think you're underestimating the marathon a little though. It's not simply a matter of punching some numbers into a race equivalent calculator. Some people possess the necessary abilities to match their performances at the shorter distances and some do not.

For reference, my threshold pace is currently around 5:55/mile, and I'd be happy if I snuck under 2:50 in the marathon.

There's a lot that can go wrong in marathon, but one thing most posters are missing is how fast 1400 is (even 1415, assuming that's the slowest "about 1400") is; and how that will translate.

If the OP really is running 30 miles/week and is in good shape, a 9 month buildup to 70ish miles and a low 230s marathon goal is completely reasonable.

It would be nice to have a little more info (like a current race), but i'd still bet on the the OP.

Yes, it is doable. I consider myself an expert at getting out of shape and back into shape. I took a year off running from mid 2020 to mid 2021, then got very motivated and ran a 2:17 marathon at CIM. You need to do a 4 month stepping-stone cycle before you can seriously attempt low 2:30s training. For the first cycle you need to just build back consistency and get in a weekly routine. Build up to 50-60 miles per week with two workouts. One workout in the middle of the week and another incorporated into your long run. Run a half marathon at the end of this cycle and aim for a sub 1:15 (2:37 full equivalent). Then once you’ve done that, bump up your mileage to 70-80 and you’re golden.