Which is more likely? Trump wins the GOP nomination or he goes 3rd party?

As you are a registered Democrat I assume you would be pleased to have Trump run 3rd party to almost ensure a Democrat winning in 2024?

Trump will win the nomination.

Here's one for ya - say he loses the Rep. Primary.

Who would he blame with claims of a fraudulent election in that case? LOL.

He would blame the RINOs for cheating him. Some might wonder if Rojo is a DINO…Democrat in Name Only.

Criminal indictments are the wild card. But some smart GOP people see this playing out like 2016. Namely, everyone writing Trump off then one by one Trump squashing mediocre republicans with his name calling while they try to take the high road. The media loving the ratings again and giving Trump 24/7 free coverage. Then big money seeing their choices get squashed then they go back to Trump.

hard to believe it happens again but who knows.

Trump runs because that is the only way he can stay out of prison. He will do whatever he can to push the lawsuits further back.
But soon or later his time will run out.

He is a heavy favorite to win the nomination. So, you know, that would be the most likely outcome. He's incredibly popular among the Republican voters. Yes, he's terrible for the party and its prospects. But leadership doesn't vote, as we saw in 2016. He can lose to DeSantis, but I would bet against it at this point.

I can't imagine that he will win the GOP nomination *or* go third party. The second would involve an enormous amount of work, and he doesn't "do" work; and I don't think he would risk himself in the GOP primaries, precisely because his ego couldn't handle it.

As others on this board have suggested, I think he'll make noise until the primaries actually approach, then not participate. By then he should have raked in considerable $$$ from his faithful, which he will try to keep for himself (or at least for personal purposes like paying lawyers).

So: I think his chance to win the nomination OR run as a third-party candidate is less than 5%.

Trump has declared that he will not hire a campaign manager. It seems he will manage that himself with two political advisors (go-fers). Will them bring him coffee on command?

"There is no one working for him with the title of campaign manager." "Instead, two veteran political strategists will effectively split the duties of one." (New York Times)

You'd think that if Herschel Walker has figured out that Trump's whole bit is a scam the remaining audience can't be that big.

1) I do not think Trump will win the nomination.

2) Beyond that, he is so unpredictable that I have no idea what he will do. IF there's a way for him to rip off Trumpers, he will do whatever that way is.

3) He's such an egomaniac in need of attention that he will likely be involved in some way if he's allowed to be.

4) Whatever he does, he will do it because he believes it will benefit him. He has no allegiance to the Republican Party, to civility, to normalcy.

You are underestimating Trump. He has a deep hold over red-state morons who truly believe he is fighting for their best interests. I don't see DeSantis taking those morons away from Trump. DeSantis may win the Florida primary, but Trump will clean up in states like Ohio, Kentucky, Arkansas, etc. To put it another way, DeSantis is a little too Trumpy for moderate Republicans, but not Trumpy enough for the true believers.

Trump was a lot less likely to get the Republican nomination 8 years ago than he is now.

They had 20 candidates and he was just a sideshow as they were choosing among Jeb, Rubio, Kasich and Cruz.

He was recently able to lead a mob to attack the Capitol and still had members of Congress in there support his coup attempt that night.

His candidates may not have produced a red wave in the midterms but he did get a ton of them to win their primaries, which is what we are talking about here.

DGAF trolljo

Is '3rd party' slang for prison? If so, then YES that's for him.

The '3' looks like a sideways butt. Just saying.

Doubt he mounts a third party challenge because that would involve losing once in the primary and then being a non factor in the general

I actually think it’s a great question. If Trump smells that he’s losing the GOP & big money GOP donors, then it would be just like him to go scorched earth. So I would assign a high probability to it.

However, Michelle Obama is going to run and get elected in 24, no matter who the GOP runs. She’s the ultimate charlatan of all, but it doesn’t matter because the MSM, The View, Oprah, etc all love her.

I simply cannot believe this is what we have to choose from, even though I typically throw my vote away every four years anyhow. But, if Michelle O is it, I will have to vote against her.

The walls are closing in! (this time for real)

you underestimate red state morons. they know that NO candidate is fighting for their best interests, BUT at least he will be a bully for their anger. Do not underestimate how much that means to most people.