My money is on Gary Martin. Colin Sahlman has ran faster but I think the Newbury Park Supertraining will only go so far. I'm not convinced on Rheinhardt Harrison - he's been kind of stagnating. Connor Burnsey sub 4 was a fluke so I don't know what will become of him.
The Newbury Park "supertraining" definitely slowed Nico down in college. Why do Americans think running 60mpw in HS will burn you out? Jakob has been running 80-100 mpw since he was 11 and he is whooping our best on the world stage now.
I think Martin and Sahlman will both go on to have good pro careers. Both seem to have a good head on their shoulders and are going to programs with good coaching.
The Newbury Park "supertraining" definitely slowed Nico down in college. Why do Americans think running 60mpw in HS will burn you out? Jakob has been running 80-100 mpw since he was 11 and he is whooping our best on the world stage now.
I think Martin and Sahlman will both go on to have good pro careers. Both seem to have a good head on their shoulders and are going to programs with good coaching.
First off, Newbury Park runs more like 70 miles per week. I watched three Newbury Park runners on Strava who ran 70 miles per week religiously, despite what they say.
It's not necessarily the miles they run, but they run VERY hard workouts. So, while it doesn't mean they can't improve quite a bit, there is a greater chance they're closer to their ceiling than someone like Gary Martin who's training is not as intense at this point in his career. There are a million variables, but from that perspective, Martin has more upside.
There are many cases of hard training high schoolers who have improved in college (see Ritz, Solinsky, Nico and many others), but there are also many cases of those who trained very hard who didn't pan out.
While Nico has improved nicely in college, he absolutely dominated in high school and several from his graduating class have significantly closed the gap on him since high school and it's not out of the question that several will pass him in the next year or two.
It's impossible to know who will be better in the future, but from strictly who is performing better now while training less, Martin is clearly a safer pick to improve more in college.
The Newbury Park "supertraining" definitely slowed Nico down in college. Why do Americans think running 60mpw in HS will burn you out? Jakob has been running 80-100 mpw since he was 11 and he is whooping our best on the world stage now.
I think Martin and Sahlman will both go on to have good pro careers. Both seem to have a good head on their shoulders and are going to programs with good coaching.
First off, Newbury Park runs more like 70 miles per week. I watched three Newbury Park runners on Strava who ran 70 miles per week religiously, despite what they say.
It's not necessarily the miles they run, but they run VERY hard workouts. So, while it doesn't mean they can't improve quite a bit, there is a greater chance they're closer to their ceiling than someone like Gary Martin who's training is not as intense at this point in his career. There are a million variables, but from that perspective, Martin has more upside.
There are many cases of hard training high schoolers who have improved in college (see Ritz, Solinsky, Nico and many others), but there are also many cases of those who trained very hard who didn't pan out.
While Nico has improved nicely in college, he absolutely dominated in high school and several from his graduating class have significantly closed the gap on him since high school and it's not out of the question that several will pass him in the next year or two.
It's impossible to know who will be better in the future, but from strictly who is performing better now while training less, Martin is clearly a safer pick to improve more in college.
Hard to say but there is another factor that hasn't been discussed. Colin Sahlman is rail thin and it's possible that with additional physical maturation and training he fills out a bit and in doing so adds to his capabilities. We shall see...
Nico absolutely dominated high school starting at the end of is junior year. As a college sophomore, he absolutely dominated the competition except for 2 guys who under normal circumstances wouldn't be competing, and he's run 13:11. There's still no one in his graduating class that was even close to threatening him in the 5k the other day.
There are also plenty of people who did well on low mileage in HS but their bodies couldn't hold up to the higher intensity of college running. I think all the guys who broke 4 this year are gonna be competitive in college, but predicting beyond there is basically a crapshoot.
Which NP runners do you follow on Strava? Brosnan is very secretive about his runners' training and all of them either have no Strava or have an account that is open to less than 10 people, all teammates I guess. I've only found one person from NPHS who had a public Strava account, and he ran more like 45-55 mpw rather than the 70 you're talking about.
All of them have lots of upside. Gary's probably the most talented, but that doesnt necessarily mean he will improve more than the others.
Burnsey will probably be the fastest by the end of his senior year of these 4 guys. Colin and Martin were 4:03/4 guys last year, theyve improved roughly 7/8 seconds. He was a 4:10 guy last year, which means hes made a 12 second improvement over a year. If he takes the same amount of time off junior to senior year as Martin and Sahlman hes on course to break Webbs record, something he's said he has his eye on.
Rheinhardt was a 4:01 guy as a sophomore, hes improved roughly a second per year. Hes the least likely to go pro imo. However the talent it takes to be a 4:01 sophomore is pretty spectacular. So maybe I'm wrong.
I think Colin is the most likely to have a pro career. He has by far the best range of all these guys. He's the best in the country 5k through mile, and he's top 5 in the 8. Ultimately though what's going to give him pro potential is his monstrous kick. It's a shame Aaron doesn't have quite the same work ethic, he could be even better than his brother next year.
All of them have lots of upside. Gary's probably the most talented, but that doesnt necessarily mean he will improve more than the others.
Burnsey will probably be the fastest by the end of his senior year of these 4 guys. Colin and Martin were 4:03/4 guys last year, theyve improved roughly 7/8 seconds. He was a 4:10 guy last year, which means hes made a 12 second improvement over a year. If he takes the same amount of time off junior to senior year as Martin and Sahlman hes on course to break Webbs record, something he's said he has his eye on.
Rheinhardt was a 4:01 guy as a sophomore, hes improved roughly a second per year. Hes the least likely to go pro imo. However the talent it takes to be a 4:01 sophomore is pretty spectacular. So maybe I'm wrong.
It's a shame Aaron doesn't have quite the same work ethic, he could be even better than his brother next year.
How can you confidently say Aaron doesn't have the same work ethic as Colin??
I think Colin Sahlman will be the most safe bet to make an Olympic team as a pro. He has monster closing speed and will be really dangerous in tactical races.
Correction: low 60s at most, but still far from running "70 miles per week religiously"
I don't care if you believe me, but the three I found were VERY consistent at 70 mpw. Two of them graduated last year and one the year prior. Maybe they were outliers, but it would be quite a coincidence if the only three I could find were the only three doing 70 mpw. I couldn't see the specific runs, so don't know the details.
By the way, I'm not judging, saying it's good or bad, but it's a data point.
Nico absolutely dominated high school starting at the end of is junior year. As a college sophomore, he absolutely dominated the competition except for 2 guys who under normal circumstances wouldn't be competing, and he's run 13:11. There's still no one in his graduating class that was even close to threatening him in the 5k the other day.
There are also plenty of people who did well on low mileage in HS but their bodies couldn't hold up to the higher intensity of college running. I think all the guys who broke 4 this year are gonna be competitive in college, but predicting beyond there is basically a crapshoot.
How did he absolutely dominate the college competition? He was very good, but there were certainly people that were close to him that he was much better than in high school. He was untouchable his senior year, but has won a grand total of 2 races in his collegiate XC, indoor and outdoor track. How can you dominate when you don't even win. Again, he's really good, but not even close to as dominant as he was in high school.
Cole Sprout is much closer to him now than he was in high school where he lost by 18 seconds to Nico at NXN. People like Ky Robinson and Charles Hicks were not nearly as good as Nico in High School, but are very close to him now. Even look at people like Acer Iverson from Harvard, who was no where close to Nico in high school, but has closed the gap considerably. It would not be a total shock for him to caught and passed by several collegiate competitors that are behind him now.
How did he absolutely dominate the college competition? He was very good, but there were certainly people that were close to him that he was much better than in high school. He was untouchable his senior year, but has won a grand total of 2 races in his collegiate XC, indoor and outdoor track. How can you dominate when you don't even win. Again, he's really good, but not even close to as dominant as he was in high school.
Cole Sprout is much closer to him now than he was in high school where he lost by 18 seconds to Nico at NXN. People like Ky Robinson and Charles Hicks were not nearly as good as Nico in High School, but are very close to him now. Even look at people like Acer Iverson from Harvard, who was no where close to Nico in high school, but has closed the gap considerably. It would not be a total shock for him to caught and passed by several collegiate competitors that are behind him now.
The people who are undoubtedly better than him: Nur (one of the top pro prospects in the NCAA right now), Hacker (7th year senior), Beadlescomb (6th year senior).
People he has beaten handily: Mantz, Ky Robinson (13:20 PR), Cole Sprout (13:24 PR).
I'm comfortable to say he's dominating when the only regular collegiate athlete that's beating him is his teammate and one of the top pro prospects in the country. Nico has already surpassed almost everyone that graduated 1/2/3/4 years before him. It's possible that a few people can pass him, but I don't think anyone that he was beating in HS has thrown down a performance worth 13:11 or would win an NCAA title in a year without covid eligibility.
Let me put it this way: An XC title next year for Nico wouldn't be a shock to anyone here. An XC title for Sprout or Robinson would be a big surprise, unless they start throwing down crazy performances next season. I'm wishing the best for everyone, but if you watch the race, Nico is just a level up from everyone save the 6th and 7th year seniors.
I feel kinda bad for dragging the thread off topic so to give a bolder prediction: All 4 will make a global team, and Burns and Sahlman will go pro before they win an NCAA title.
How did he absolutely dominate the college competition? He was very good, but there were certainly people that were close to him that he was much better than in high school. He was untouchable his senior year, but has won a grand total of 2 races in his collegiate XC, indoor and outdoor track. How can you dominate when you don't even win. Again, he's really good, but not even close to as dominant as he was in high school.
Cole Sprout is much closer to him now than he was in high school where he lost by 18 seconds to Nico at NXN. People like Ky Robinson and Charles Hicks were not nearly as good as Nico in High School, but are very close to him now. Even look at people like Acer Iverson from Harvard, who was no where close to Nico in high school, but has closed the gap considerably. It would not be a total shock for him to caught and passed by several collegiate competitors that are behind him now.
The people who are undoubtedly better than him: Nur (one of the top pro prospects in the NCAA right now), Hacker (7th year senior), Beadlescomb (6th year senior).
People he has beaten handily: Mantz, Ky Robinson (13:20 PR), Cole Sprout (13:24 PR).
I'm comfortable to say he's dominating when the only regular collegiate athlete that's beating him is his teammate and one of the top pro prospects in the country. Nico has already surpassed almost everyone that graduated 1/2/3/4 years before him. It's possible that a few people can pass him, but I don't think anyone that he was beating in HS has thrown down a performance worth 13:11 or would win an NCAA title in a year without covid eligibility.
Let me put it this way: An XC title next year for Nico wouldn't be a shock to anyone here. An XC title for Sprout or Robinson would be a big surprise, unless they start throwing down crazy performances next season. I'm wishing the best for everyone, but if you watch the race, Nico is just a level up from everyone save the 6th and 7th year seniors.
You are a homer. Mantz, Robinson and Hicks have also beaten him handily. He is very good, but is not dominating the college competition.
Which NP runners do you follow on Strava? Brosnan is very secretive about his runners' training and all of them either have no Strava or have an account that is open to less than 10 people, all teammates I guess. I've only found one person from NPHS who had a public Strava account, and he ran more like 45-55 mpw rather than the 70 you're talking about.
There were quite many NP guys under pseudonyms with public stravas but veey shortly after some of the profiles got posted on letsrun they all went private.
So I was looking around and I found the training log of one of Newbury Park's top guys from last year. I'm not going to name names but it's not too hard to find. Mileage: high 50s to low 60s. Regular runs are around 6-8 mil...
The Newbury Park "supertraining" definitely slowed Nico down in college. Why do Americans think running 60mpw in HS will burn you out? Jakob has been running 80-100 mpw since he was 11 and he is whooping our best on the world stage now.
I think Martin and Sahlman will both go on to have good pro careers. Both seem to have a good head on their shoulders and are going to programs with good coaching.
First off, Newbury Park runs more like 70 miles per week. I watched three Newbury Park runners on Strava who ran 70 miles per week religiously, despite what they say.
It's not necessarily the miles they run, but they run VERY hard workouts. So, while it doesn't mean they can't improve quite a bit, there is a greater chance they're closer to their ceiling than someone like Gary Martin who's training is not as intense at this point in his career. There are a million variables, but from that perspective, Martin has more upside.
There are many cases of hard training high schoolers who have improved in college (see Ritz, Solinsky, Nico and many others), but there are also many cases of those who trained very hard who didn't pan out.
While Nico has improved nicely in college, he absolutely dominated in high school and several from his graduating class have significantly closed the gap on him since high school and it's not out of the question that several will pass him in the next year or two.
It's impossible to know who will be better in the future, but from strictly who is performing better now while training less, Martin is clearly a safer pick to improve more in college.
They never run 70 miles per week. Besides the fact they are not on strava.
First off, Newbury Park runs more like 70 miles per week. I watched three Newbury Park runners on Strava who ran 70 miles per week religiously, despite what they say.
It's not necessarily the miles they run, but they run VERY hard workouts. So, while it doesn't mean they can't improve quite a bit, there is a greater chance they're closer to their ceiling than someone like Gary Martin who's training is not as intense at this point in his career. There are a million variables, but from that perspective, Martin has more upside.
There are many cases of hard training high schoolers who have improved in college (see Ritz, Solinsky, Nico and many others), but there are also many cases of those who trained very hard who didn't pan out.
While Nico has improved nicely in college, he absolutely dominated in high school and several from his graduating class have significantly closed the gap on him since high school and it's not out of the question that several will pass him in the next year or two.
It's impossible to know who will be better in the future, but from strictly who is performing better now while training less, Martin is clearly a safer pick to improve more in college.
They never run 70 miles per week. Besides the fact they are not on strava.
Nice try though
It’s very strange that you would make such a definitive statement in response to someone who is claiming to have evidence to the contrary. How are you so certain that the 3 runners who apparently posted their mileage on Strava are wrong or not accurate?