Watching him is infuriating. He has the talent to go sub-2:18. Pulling off a 2:16 or 2:17 would elevate him into a much higher-tier of runners. He'd be the loveable overly-positive goof who actually puts out very solid, even borderline-elite times.
But instead the bozo spends countless hours running 100+ MPW at 8:30/mile pace, no speedwork, poor nutrition, not enough rest.... He could straight-up skip 20 of his very easy miles each week. Cut out the zone-0 runs and ride a bike with your kids instead. Replace another 20 easy miles with intervals, tempo runs, and even marathon pace work. He'd have 5-6 extra hours each week to sleep, and he'd probably sleep much better.
It's like the guy took a training plan for a 100-miler ultra and uses it for road marathons. And funny enough he sucks at ultras.
He has the talent, the frame, the body, the experience.... and he insists on doing more work that makes him a worse runner. It's not like he's cutting corners and saving a bunch of time and accepting a 2:23 PR as a tradeoff.
It's infuriating to see him p*ss it away. Congrats on being a one-trick PP pony. And that gravy train is almost certainly going to end soon as well.
My prediction is 2:28.