How Many H.S. boys will go sub-4 this year? Could it be double digits?

5

Gary will do it at Penn with a 3:59, Singleton at 4:02. Gary will run sub 4 once more during the season, 3:58/7. Singleton will run 4:01 by the end of the season.

Of the Newbury boys, Colin will run 3:56, and the three juniors will all run right at 4 flat, with none breaking it. After Leo's sickness, and with them pursuing the CIF route i suspect we'll see 4 flats from L&L and 4:01 from Aaron. I hope I'm wrong though, I love these guys and having two, letalone four sub 4 guys from one school would be amazing. Chris Caudillo will run 4:02.

Rheinhardt Harrison will continue to run fast 800s, crazy workouts, and near sub 4s, however will shy away from competing against highschoolers and will ultimately only end up breaking 4 once, with a 3:58.

Zane Bergen and Gavin Sherry will both break 4 at Nike nationals, with James Donahue just behind at 4 flat.

Marco Langon will run 4:03, along with Conner burns, who will not beat his indoor time. The slough of other east coasy 4:0high guys will all get down to 4:05/6. Riley Hough will run a dissapointing 4:07 at nationals.

Jonathan Commentor: proffessional psychic. Telling the future since 2011, heard it here first baby.

I’ve watched and followed most everyone in your post. Your predictions look good. However, not sure if Nike will be strong enough to see a sub 4. Brooks could end up with the the best field.

Is there still a Prefontaine Classic this year? If so, at least 1 guaranteed sub-4 (Martin).

You mean “how many high schoolers wearing Nike spring shoes will go sub 4 this year?

The sky’s the limit

The idea that 10+ HS boys will go sub 4 in the mile in 2022 alone is one of the dumbest things I have ever seen on letsrun, and that is a really low bar to dip under. I think we get 2 or 3, which should still be celebrated as a tremendous year and far from a disappointment.

Most realistic statements I've seen on Letdrun all day

Why wouldn’t they all do this at NBNO??

13 total HSers have gone sub 4:00 in the actual MILE.

en.wikipedia.org

List of American high school students who have run a four-minute mile

This is a list of American high school students who have run a four-minute mile since the feat was first accomplished in 1964. The first person to run the mile (1,760 yards, or 1,609.344 metres) in under four minutes was Roge...

Link:en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_American...

In only ONE year has there been more than 2.

I am going with no more than 2 and one already has this year (Colin, indoors).

Alan

1 sub 4 - 15%
2 sub 4 - 30%

3 sub 4 - 30%
4 sub 4 - 15%
5 sub 4 - 6%
6 sub 4 - 3%
7 sub 4 - <1%
8 or 9 sub 4 - <0.01%
10 or more sub 4 - astronomically low odds.

When was there more than two? I thought it was: 1964/65, 66, 67, 01, 11, 15, 15, 16, 16, 17, 20, 21, 22?

Thats only two year with more than one.

If your prediction is true, the NP guys running 3:56, 4:00, 4:00 and 4:01 would be a phenomenal achievement.

True. But how many years have we entered May with this many guys having run 4:03 this year? Maybe they all peaked in March but normal progression gets us 4-5 guys which sounds insane when you write it down....

It wouldn’t surprise me to see six guys break the barrier which in and of itself is ridiculous. 10+ will not happen but to even see three break 4 is outstanding.

If you consider how many are close, the shoes being at least a psychological, if not physical advantage, the multiplicity of opportunities in contrast to previous decades, and what happened in the NCAA indoors in the mile (17 sub 3:56 and 50 ran 3:58.08 or better), it's quite a good possibility that there will be five or more, and certainly an unprecedented number. One team has a great shot at 4 alone with Colin Sahlman at 3:58 already, Aaron Sahlman's sub 1:49 800 and 8:01 3k in winter, plus Leo Young already at 4 flat and his brother not far off at 4:04 and with a 7:57 3k).

Looks like Alan was counting total sub-4 performances per year, not distinct individuals. 2016 had a total of 3 high school sub-4 performances by 2 people: Hunter x 2 + Slagowski

None. No one will ever run under 4 minutes EVER again

Whatever happened to Slagowski? Looks like he quit running in 2018 after some terrible performances.

Anyway, to answer the OP, no there will not be double digits. There won't be more than one hands worth either. I say the number is 3, meaning two more this season.