After today, the US 10k record 26:44.36 (Rupp) is in jeopardy. The question is how fast will Grant F run the 10k before he hangs up his spikes?
My prediction: 26:32.00
I think that your prediction of 26:32.00 is somewhat optimistic, but with all due respect to Fisher, I think he is capable of running between 26:45.00-26:58.00 in optimal conditions.
He's shown that he's great at focusing on 10k, so we know he is not really a 5k specialist. That indicates to me that his 12:53 could already lead to 26:4x during an outdoor season in which he gets the opportunity to race a fast time.
Add to that that he is only 24 and already has this kind of fitness, and it's reasonable to guess that he will run 26:3x in the next few years, especially with several excellent training partners.
He's shown that he's great at focusing on 10k, so we know he is not really a 5k specialist. That indicates to me that his 12:53 could already lead to 26:4x during an outdoor season in which he gets the opportunity to race a fast time.
Add to that that he is only 24 and already has this kind of fitness, and it's reasonable to guess that he will run 26:3x in the next few years, especially with several excellent training partners.
We don't know that he is not really a 5k specialist. he has run 10,000m on the track three times in his career. He placed higher in the Olympics in the 10 but the 10/5 double is not easy, the 10 was first and he was likely tired for the 5 and he was also injured for the 5. He tweaked his calf after the 10.