He was only capable of 4:05 his junior year, possibly because of injury or focusing on longer distances (8:47 3200), so a 4:01 mile opener is pretty solid, even if it isn't a sub-4. I expect that he'll bring that time down with more racing.
he was probably capable of a sub 4 early in his junior outdoor season. He ran a 4:06 in a sub 4 attempt... with 20mph winds. I don't know what part of the country you live in but in my experience running in winds like that can put a good 10, maybe even more seconds on a mile. Didn't get anymore chances his junior year because of injuries, like you said.
He will break 4 this spring, he’s due. The other HS runner “stuck” around the low 4:00s is Gavin Sherry who has not had a chance yet to run in a collegiate or pro race (or runners better than him even). I think he’s got a great shot at sub 4
Coach Schwartz posted RH’s time on his Instagram, so it looks like he is still training him. he also noted that RH had Covid a few weeks back and lost some training time.
Sahlman, Harrison, Sherry, Lex Young feel pretty likely and that’s 4. Connor Burns just ran 4:02.96, you have Leo Young too, younger Sahlman, Riley Hough, Zane Bergen et al. I don’t know the HS scene at well but it seems like if you set and O/U it’d be at 3.5 considering there’re usually some close misses.