What will it take to go sub 2:15 marathon?

With a 39:20 for 10k, I think you have not the talent to run a 2:15 Marathon.

But I wouldn't mind being wrong.

You need to train hard but not too hard to get injured and work you way up the distances and speed.

Good luck.

I agree

Beyond hard work, good genetics is a prerequisite. Unfortunately, you probably don't have that unless you've never run before (but then you wouldn't have 10k and 5k PRs...). The people who could possibly run a 2:15 marathon run better than an 18:30 5k without training.

Yeah, unfortunately, you need a good combo of talent + hard work to get to 2:15 or faster. There are the kids that run 16 minutes in their first 5k race ever with zero training & then there are the kids/adults that need years of training to get down to the same time. & even the kids that run fast right away in HS still might not develop because they don't want to work or burn out or just don't get there.

I sort of thought the same thing when I was your age. It doesn't look like a lot of time to get to the pro-ish level but it could take years to get to a spot in this sport that doesn't really put you close to 2:15 at all. My ceiling is ~16-flat for 5k to 2:30s for the marathon. I train hard. I've run 100 mile weeks. I love this sport & I love training so it doesn't bother me if I invest a lot of time to run reasonably well.

I would set small goals. Let's break 18:00 for 5k. Let's break 17:00 for 5k. You don't need to chip away at your 10k. Your 10k will drop when you have a faster 5k & more endurance. I rushed to the longer distances & might have had a little bit higher of a potential at the marathon if I spent time from the 800-5k in my teens to early 20s. I would run the mile to 5k for a bit. You get sub-4:40, maybe not even sub-4:30, types who can run 2:18 with crazy endurance. To run 2:18, you'll need at least sub-4:40 & 14:40s for 5k. 1:06-07 for the half. & a lot of endurance. For 2:15, faster.

Hi, I've only been consistently running with a structured plan for about a year, and have only joined xc this season. Before XC, my PRs were 19:45(Feb) & 41:37(April) for 5k and 10k.

I think you'd have to be a lot faster than 4:40 to run 14:40, which is 4:45 pace. Probably 4:30 or better. If you had crazy endurance vs. speed, possibly low-mid 4:30s.

But I agree with NERunner, OP. Have some intermediate goals. Sometimes we have a great first season or two, and since times seem to improve almost effortlessly, we assume that it'll be just as easy to go from 17:15 to 16:00 as 19:45 to 18:30. The truth is that after you've run for two years and hit 18-19, you'll make progress but it'll be more steady. Don't kill the dream, but be realistic and have a plan in between.

Unfortunately at that level genetics and luck (e.g. avoiding injury) will play a pretty large role in determining whether you are successful. The only way to find out if you've got it in you is to give it a go. Good luck!

i agree

Wannabieolympicteen1010 wrote:

Hi guys, I was just wondering what will it take for me to run sub 2:15 in the marathon to qualify for the Olympic standard, (ik it's officially 2:19 but we all know the standard is going to be faster in the next 2-6 years). I'm currently 17 y.o, and my PB is 39:20 for 10k, and 18:30 for 5K. I'm planning to run half marathons, 10ks, 5ks for the next 2-6 years during college before running my first marathon. I just need guidance on training and a general timespan of where should I be by 2032.

To run sub-2:15, you're going to have to train like a professional runner. That means, over the next few years, build up to a weekly mileage of at least 100 miles per week, likely 120-140, and keep doing so, for 10 years. Approximately 20% of that mileage will need to be quality work (intervals, tempo runs, half- and marathon-pace work) with 80% being easy, aerobic pace runs. Run some races (5K-marathon) along the way to gauge the progress of your fitness.

Follow pro's on strava. See what they do. Also, buy a training book. Pete Pfitzinger's Advanced Marathoning, is one of many, and has training plans from low mileage beginner plans, up through elite plans, with 100+ mile weeks.

If you can do that, without major interruptions from injury or other life events, you'll certainly get a lot faster. You'll probably find your limits. Will that be 2:15? Faster than 2:15? 2:30 or slower?

There's only one way to find out.

The running calculator numbers

You need

14:00 5k

29:10k

1:04 Half

2:15 Marathon

Go run 140 slow miles a week on high altitude and very technical mountain trails using short little baby step strides. Don't drink any water during your training runs and wear a new pair of shoes for each run. Feel free to mix brands at will. Be sure to film it all and from interesting camera angles. Stop running every 10 minutes or so to set up your camera on a rock or tree branch. Then run several striders past the camera to get the right shot. Reposition the camera so that you get footage of yourself moving away from the camera. Don't forget to also have an old school selfie stick on hand! Buy a drone. Also, act very excited at all times by making loud exclamations like, "Ohhhhhhhh baby!" and "Slather my muffin!!!"

Why? This is called building the aerobic engine and it's what Arthur Lydiard invented. It's super steasy and should guarantee that you make the Trials in 2032.

Wannabieolympicteen1010 wrote:

Hi guys, I was just wondering what will it take for me to run sub 2:15 in the marathon to qualify for the Olympic standard, (ik it's officially 2:19 but we all know the standard is going to be faster in the next 2-6 years). I'm currently 17 y.o, and my PB is 39:20 for 10k, and 18:30 for 5K. I'm planning to run half marathons, 10ks, 5ks for the next 2-6 years during college before running my first marathon. I just need guidance on training and a general timespan of where should I be by 2032.

You're never going to run 2:15. Just enjoy running and focus on improvement.

when I was 17 I ran 9:52 for 3200m. After years off I started training again at 26. Ran 2:50 marathon. at 29 I got more serious and hit my first 100 mile week. at 30 I ran 2:29. I kept training 80-110 per week but only years later I made it to 2:28 and also stalled at 1:09 half marathons. Even with increased training I could no longer recover while working full time. I am reaching my genetic limit. Even with full time running, 120 MPW, I might be able to improve to 2:24.

All that is to say is that talent and genetics is such a huge factor when talking sub 2:20 marathoning. Hard work alone doesn't do it.

Yep -- I know some (barely) sub-4:40 types who have hit the OTQ. It's rare but trying to be optimistic here. Agree with what you said. Have intermediate goals. Don't put pressure or think anything other than sub-2:15 as failure. Have fun with it. Running is about being better than your previous self or just doing it because you love it.

Not to high-jack the thread, but curious what everyone thinks?

How many runners on Planet Earth are capable of a 2:15?

I mean, I know it's a decent number, but even among the ranks of talented runners, it's got to be very small.

Maybe 2:20 marathoner would be equivalent to being a starter in the NFL? 2:15 would be a Pro Bowler.

(BTW - to the OP - keep at your dreams. Be realistic, but there's only one way to find out for sure)

For sure, running 120-140 mpw for ten years is not the only way to find out.

Make short term goals. you’re gonna have to be a 30 flat 10k guy at the minimum to run 2:15 so work on going sub 39 than 38 and so on. Run a lot. Read training literature written by experts not just random internet people.

Can you actually run 2:15? Probably not, most people can’t but honestly don’t worry about that. Worry about getting faster over the next 3-6 months. It’s not really worth focusing on anything farther out than that

Keep in mind that pro runners like Sage Canaday, who devoted years if not decades to full time marathon training, didn't get injured much, and had some talent, were barely able to break 2:17. It's really, really tough.