Probability of a Young Young HS / NCAA individual championship in the same year?

I'd give it a probability of:

https://cutewallpaper.org/21/wwe-shane-mcmahon-theme/Wwe-vince-mcmahon-theme-download.jpg

I think that the results are not truly independent of one another. If Nico pulls off the upset and wins NCAAs the chance of Leo or Lex winning goes up to nearly 100%.

Better yet, Colin Sahlman has committed to NAU, imagine the complete dominance of NCAA cross if all the Sahlmans and Youngs go to NAU at once.

LOL is there a probability less than zero? No chance in hell.

I wonder if there will be a NP to NAU pipeline like Stanford to BTC

NP to NAU is very likely and the Young's winning HS Nationals and NCAA's in the same year is also likely.

If I was a college coach there would be no way in hell I would want 4 kids from the same high school on a team together, no matter how fast they are. Lots of room for internal conflict there

OC4 wrote:

LOL is there a probability less than zero? No chance in hell.

Zero kelvin?

Just out of curiosity which of the two scenarios makes you think there is no chance?

Nico got 4th as a true freshman and top 10 in the Oly trials 5k. His younger brother Leo ran the national record for high school cross country for 3 miles in 13:38 and his other brother Lex ran 8:42 for 3200 last spring as a sophomore.

There is about a 5% chance for Nico and a 25% chance for one of his brothers this year. That puts odds at almost 1-100 of both.

Well if they don't go to Foot Locker, they by default are forfeiting the HS title, right?

Okay. 5% for Nico and 0% for his brothers which makes it 0.

OG is the way to go wrote:

Well if they don't go to Foot Locker, they by default are forfeiting the HS title, right?

No the National championship is in Huntsville Alabama this year.

Dude even if they're some of the best runners in the nation? I think you'd have to make an exception there lol

Nico isn’t even the fastest in his team this year so I’d say about 0. Next year is a different story as the Lex and Leo have about a 95 percent chance of winning whatever national meet there is next year and there is no reason to believe Nico won’t continue progressing as he won’t turn 20 for another 8 months

I don't think Nico will win and I don't his brothers will, either. Didn't Sahlman beat them at Woodward?

Lots of weird unordinary and possibly brotherly stuff could go down this year in the stat books that mean little for serious high school track fans.

-Could multiple kids from the same high school team break 4:00 in this spring? I'm not giving up on this one yet. Of which we could see the first set of high school brothers break 4 in the same year. Or two sets from the same team? Far fetched or not...these guys are well coached and it could come down to Brosnan pushing the right buttons at the right time to make this happen. I'm going to ignore any improvement curves from past athletes. Or what anyone types on Letsrun. This one simply needs to play out

-Could multiple kids from the same high school team could go under 8 in the 3000m indoors in the same race. I haven't heard if Brosnan will have them on a similar schedule of Nico's senior year, but it could be interesting or nothing if they do not race indoors at all. If they do, could this be the first set of high school brothers to break 8 in the same year? I do not see how Aaron Sahlman could not have also broken 9 at Arcadia last year as well had he been in that race so I would love to see this all of these guys give it a shot this winter. Or what about 5 guys under 8:10?

-Could Newbury Park have 6 guys break 9 in the same race/year? I think this one is possible. And with two sets of brothers within that group? Big improvements out of the their 6-8 guys could make this happen.

No more debates on who is the best team ever. Just how much faster can they get.....

Tonight we are Young wrote:

OC4 wrote:

LOL is there a probability less than zero? No chance in hell.

Zero kelvin?

Just out of curiosity which of the two scenarios makes you think there is no chance?

Nico got 4th as a true freshman and top 10 in the Oly trials 5k. His younger brother Leo ran the national record for high school cross country for 3 miles in 13:38 and his other brother Lex ran 8:42 for 3200 last spring as a sophomore.

Nico has not shown the form this year to remotely suggest he will be able to beat all 3 of the combination of Mantz/Wildschutt/Kiprop even if he tried. He has yet to win a race this year and finished 25 seconds off of Mantz in Pre Nats . Could he beat any one of them? Possibly, if one of them blows up trying to keep up with the other two for the individual title. Secondly, even if he is in form, it is highly likely he will pack run with NAU rather than risking blowing up to give NAU the best shot at winning the team title. It is well documented that NAU will focus on putting team success over individual success. So this scenario in my mind is essentially zero probability.

The Youngs have a higher, but still small probability. They too are also not the best runner on their team. If Colin Sahlman is in form, neither of the Youngs will beat him.

Edit - "Kiprop" will be battling up top as well, but I meant "Kiptoo".

Everyone Nico lost to last year is back. Plus a bunch of guys have improved more than he has.

The problem with being really fit and well trained in high school is that guys who weren't will catch up to you in college.

He will be lucky if he places as high this year as be did last year. There's just so much talent returning.

Odds of him winning are maybe 1 in 100. He would need Kiptoo, Mantz and Kiptoo to have bad days, plus he would need to beat out a bunch of guys who are every bit as good as him.