new yerkeroo wrote:
silvery gold wrote:
Don't make this political. We've been through the cycle already and it will repeat: warm, southern states fair worse in the summer because everyone stays indoors to escape the heat and bask in the A/C; cold, northern states fair worse in the winter where everyone hunkers down indoors and deploys the heat.
that was pre-vaccine.
NYC has vaccinated around 85% of adults and is now working on the kids.
No one knows, but how can that not change the old patterns? Why would you expect that high vax levels won't change last winter's patterns? THey had no vaccine in the last winter.
Certainly, the current worst covid hotspots are also low-vaccination places, which suggest vaccinations are working in blue areas. But lots of cross currents.
It could very well be that the winter mirrors the summer up north, but there is no indication that will happen. We saw a very significant difference this summer in hospitalization rates, and while some of that is surely due to more vaccine hesitancy in southern states as a whole, I also think the difference in vaccination rates is largely overstated and unlikely to explain the significant case outcome difference.
Many of the southern states have around 50% of the entire population fully vaccinated, whereas most northern states have around 60%. Texas is at 52.6%, and Illinois is at 54.2%, but cases were five times as high (per capita) in Texas. The difference is TX is miserable in the summer and while it's reasonably pleasant in IL.