Boston 2022 Cutoff Prediction Thread

Until we know the field size I think it's too early to even attempt to predict.

Way too early to guess.

As someone already mentioned, field size is a massive variable.

But another is whether the October 2021 race even happens. If it doesn't, they'll continue to let those people attempt to register for the next live one (I assume?). And those people are still working with BQ's from as early as mid/late fall 2018. Plus, more and more of them are getting "better" BQs by getting older -- your BQ is determined by your age on race day, so probably 10-15% of people are getting an extra five minutes added to their BQ margin each year.

If the October 2021 race happens, I'd think April 2022 gets much more normal. Fewer races in the qualifying window than usual, probably less international interest out of Covid fear/uncertainty, probably less repeaters than usual because lots of the October 2021 racers will have been trying to do this race since spring 2020 and will just be burned out / glad to be done with it. If it's a full field, I'd guess no cutoff. Even at a reduced field, I'd guess a much less rigorous cutoff than this year.

Sucks for people trying to race and time for a BQ, but all the more reason to just target the fastest time you think you can achieve, and let the chips fall where they may as to whether it's good enough for Boston.

Yeah depends if October happens & then what kind of day it is for running. Hot/humid/rain/cold/windy and a lot of people with BQs might not have them at the end of the day. Ideal conditions and a lot of people hit their marks for 2022. Who knows what we'll get midday in October.

Anyone want to hazard a guess now that Berlin/London/Chicago/Boston are out of the way?

hopefulunicorn wrote:

Anyone want to hazard a guess now that Berlin/London/Chicago/Boston are out of the way?

No. We don’t know the field size. I know you guys like to speculate, but it’s really pointless. And us real runners don’t care because we’ll get in anyway.

There were just under 15,400 people that finished Boston today, so I’d suspect there were far fewer people who BQ’d there than is typical.

Regardless of field size, I think it'll be about a minute.

With some marathons still cancelling this past year (thus limiting opportunities to qualify), with people still hesitant to travel and race during COVID, with the next BM only six months after the last one and registration opening off the heels of so many other postponed/scheduled marathons in 2021... I think registration may remain a bit tepid at least for this next year, even factoring in deferrals who jump in.

Breakfast In Bed wrote:

Regardless of field size, I think it'll be about a minute.

With some marathons still cancelling this past year (thus limiting opportunities to qualify), with people still hesitant to travel and race during COVID, with the next BM only six months after the last one and registration opening off the heels of so many other postponed/scheduled marathons in 2021... I think registration may remain a bit tepid at least for this next year, even factoring in deferrals who jump in.

Disagree. I think Abbotts WMM or whatever it's called has done a spectacular job dealing with covid this go-around. They processed Chicago with 35,000 runners in relatively short order (took me 30min to get into the expo but that's comparable or shorter to the 2x I've run NYC without Covid). They checked everyone's vaccine status/neg tests very quickly, lines kept moving.

They certainly put other cities to shame in how polished their operation is. I'd wager that BOS, LON, and BER were the same.

I'd expect more people to be vaccinated by the spring and unless we get wave 5 with new variant that makes everything useless again I can see everyone just going on with their lives.

I like the optimism here! I ran my BQ in September 2019. Didn't get into yesterday's race, but maybe have a shot for 2022. It looks like a lot of Marathons have been cancelled, so who knows how deep the BQ field will be. Field size **should** be full, but if anyone's gonna be more cautious than they need to be it's gonna be Boston. I think if there're no clusters of COVID positives coming out of the race, they have to point to that and note that big road races are not a large threat.

they're taking times back to Sept 2019, so that's a pretty large window. That would include Chicago and NY in '19.

I could see no cut off if they are willing to allow a full field

Normal field size = Normal cutoff

Small field size = Big cutoff

It all depends on the field size.

cyanide wrote:

Disagree. I think Abbotts WMM or whatever it's called has done a spectacular job dealing with covid this go-around. They processed Chicago with 35,000 runners in relatively short order (took me 30min to get into the expo but that's comparable or shorter to the 2x I've run NYC without Covid). They checked everyone's vaccine status/neg tests very quickly, lines kept moving.

They certainly put other cities to shame in how polished their operation is. I'd wager that BOS, LON, and BER were the same.

I picked up my number for London on Sat around mid day and it was an absolute cluster f. All told it took me about 2.5 and all inside the convention center with very few people wearing masks. I'm vacinated and frankly not normally particuarly concerned about contracting COVID. In that circumstance though I really didnt want and to have to extend my trip by a week or whatever quarantining/isolating at my expense in some Covid Cabana due to exposure or a positive test.

*2.5 hours

No mask no vaccine idiot mean small field size big cutoff for all

GivingItMyAll wrote:

they're taking times back to Sept 2019, so that's a pretty large window. That would include Chicago and NY in '19.

Chicago was fast in '19. Don't remember how NYC was.

Thinking the cutoff could be lower for 2023 after tough weather at most of the majors this fall.

But I think Boston is just getting faster in general. Seem to be more people running good marathons & going to the distance younger. I ran two minutes faster this year and got a number ~100 spots higher than a few years ago.

Sat pm was always going to be crazy busy,I went Friday lunch time and it was very easy.

Berlin,Valencia and Frankfurt also had fast races at the end of 2019 with large numbers.

Saturday is always busy. I went on Thursday and there wasn't even a queue, I just strolled up to the desk for the bag drop and for the bib printing. Processed in less than 10 minutes.

Agree but didn't Chicago 2019 and NYC 2019 (which was indeed fast) runners who qualified likely already burn their spot for the 2021 Boston marathon? I.e. they can't use their 2019 chicago marathon time twice...