Analysis from the guy who knows more 1500m than all of us combined. He thinks it’s going to be a 3:32 race and has Jakob winning gold, Hocker for silver, and Kipsang for bronze.
Analysis from the guy who knows more 1500m than all of us combined. He thinks it’s going to be a 3:32 race and has Jakob winning gold, Hocker for silver, and Kipsang for bronze.
LRC Note. We've merged a couple of 1500 threads together into 1. Willis' preview comes a few posts down.
https://thinkingtrack.wordpress.com/2021/08/07/mens-olympic-1500m-finals-megapreview/
got a TIER LIST, a PREVIEW, POWER RANKINGS, SEASON RESUMEs, all the works
and a BOLDDDD prediction at the bottom
Thank you for posting. This is well written and researched. It is indeed a bold prediction section.
This post was removed.
Great analysis, and race prediction sounds spot on. Thanks for the link.
Gentlemen,
If Kenya goes 1-2 in whatever order, do not be surprised!
We look good, very good.
As we get ready for the race, we let Nick Willis break it down for you.
https://youtu.be/3bq2uNkT6zg?t=395
In the end, Willis sees there being 5 contenders. First 2 from 2nd heat Abel Kipsang and Jakob Ingebrigtsen, and the first three from the 1st heat - Jake Wightman, Cole Hocker and Timothy Cheruiyot.
He adds in Stewart McSweyn as a bonus pick as someone who can medal if Tim C makes is a 3:27race.
In the end, he picks
1. Ingebrigtsen
2. Hocker
3. Kipsang.
jabouko wrote:
https://thinkingtrack.wordpress.com/2021/08/07/mens-olympic-1500m-finals-megapreview/got a TIER LIST, a PREVIEW, POWER RANKINGS, SEASON RESUMEs, all the works
and a BOLDDDD prediction at the bottom
Great review...my prediction
Cheryiot
Wightman
Jakaob
Abel
Hoare
McSewyn
This is awesome
appreciate it gents
Im pretty sure we all agree that this will be 3:28-3:32 or so, with the main contenders all there through 1200m: Tim, Jakob, McSweyn, Kerr, Hoare, Kipsang, and Hocker closing that gap
its really who you pick to die vs. kick hard - impossible to know regardless of previous form, and thats why they run the race!
PS. I merged another thread with this thread.
Here is a super cool Ingebrigtsen v Cheruiyot article that I think might benefit this thread:
https://www.vg.no/sport/friidrett/i/eP2qrK/timothy-cheruiyot
interesting, they discussed tactics before the 2019 final.
this time, jakob is on tim's level to execute a pace race from the gun - if mcsweyn doesn't want the lead, i feel like the top two will get moving the second lap.
That was an interesting perspective. He goes into detail on different scenarios, and says McSweyn could be in the medals in a 3:30 race.
Here is a quick 10 minute pre-race video show we did from outside the stadium. During the broadcast, we were swarmed by a Japanese fan.
Yakob and Potato Skin Tim are clearly S-tier. One of these two will win gold ~80% of the time.
A. Kipsang the 32nd is the dark horse so to speak
Josh 'fucboy' Kerr, McSweyn The Crane, Hole Cocker and Jake Whiteman all form a secondary tier that can compete for medals.
Yakob - Very serious about training, and has shown to be in excellent shape pre-sickness. Don't think there's too much of a lag effect now, but I expect that getting sick takes him from 3:27-hi to 3:28-lo, which probably puts him right below Cheruiyot.
The Potato Man - Simply the most dominant male runner in any event this olympic cycle. Ran 3:28.28 in Monaco, disagree that he looked strained in the semi's. Had Jakob not gotten sick, I'd have said Jakob slightly edges out Cheruiyot. But now I have to give the slight pull to TPM. Not sure whether he'll lead hot potato from the gun since he's not as dominant as in years past. But he definitely won't leave it with 200 to go.
JfK - A talented middle-distance guy. Had a bit of a scare in the heats, but surprised me in the semi by running 3:32.18 in lane 2 most of the way. Definitely a contender for bronze in a non time-trial race.
McSweyn The Crane - As Willis said, he will make sure the pace is hot, and hope that Cheruiyot goes out hard. Didn't look great in the semi's, but still a bronze contender.
Hole Cocker - Looks to be in around 3:30 effective fitness from his races so far this season. Definitely America's hope. Has his shot at glory in a tactical race.
A. Kipsang the 32nd - The dark horse. I expect him to be in around the same effective fitness as the bronze contenders, but he has the highest variance by far of the group in both fitness and race strategy.
I am not convinced that Hocker is going to have the same kick in a 3:30-3:31 race. Look at what happened to Centro. The ability to kick is to be in a predominately aerobic state when it comes time to go. If the pace is fast those with the greatest aerobic capacity will come out on top. If it is a 3:36 race yes Hocker has a real chance. 3:30-3:31 not a chance I am afraid. I could be wrong.
LMFAO what a joke.
Hocker won't make top 5.
jabouko wrote:
https://thinkingtrack.wordpress.com/2021/08/07/mens-olympic-1500m-finals-megapreview/got a TIER LIST, a PREVIEW, POWER RANKINGS, SEASON RESUMEs, all the works
and a BOLDDDD prediction at the bottom
Wow, very nice work my friend!
Your predictions honestly don’t strike me as too bold—which goes to show how insanely far Hocker has come in the last year.
coahc wrote:
I am not convinced that Hocker is going to have the same kick in a 3:30-3:31 race. Look at what happened to Centro. The ability to kick is to be in a predominately aerobic state when it comes time to go. If the pace is fast those with the greatest aerobic capacity will come out on top. If it is a 3:36 race yes Hocker has a real chance. 3:30-3:31 not a chance I am afraid. I could be wrong.
Exactly.
People forget that they were in a 3:36-3:37 race until the kick.
In a 3:30-3:32 race PRE-KICK it's over, he's done.
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