Our intern thinks so.
However, she also might not medal.
The women's steeple should be full of drama. There are 5 legitimate gold medal contenders in our mind, including 3 women in the field who have won global titles but none have ever won Olympic gold. This should be a great one.
No. We have 4 women that could hop I. The steeple and beat her. She’s incredibly overrated
The preview does not take the conditions into account at all and just assumes that it will get very fast. While the 3k steeple might be a borderline case, I doubt that with hot and humid conditions Kiyeng or Chepkoech will volunteer for a 2:57 first k. Chepkoech 2019 (and Jebet 2016) were good enough to risk hard frontrunning but it is too tight this time with more than 5 being able to run 9:05 or faster and apparently noone being in 8:50 shape to run away from the field.
Therefore I doubt that this race will go under 9 min, certainly not into low 8:50s. This makes it even more open and probably improves Coburn's chances. I don't think the youngsters like Yavi are such a threat in a more tactical race.
Yes, 9 US titles and 3 global medals is incredibly overrated. Go away. If others could hop in the steeple and beat her then they should try it.
NAUSUX wrote:
No. We have 4 women that could hop I. The steeple and beat her. She’s incredibly overrated
Huh? Who can “hop in” and beat Coburn?
She’s a world champion, for goodness sake. These “hop in” folks would have done so were they able.
She has a shot, I'll say 20%. It's likely to be very conservative early, then I think kiyeng will go for broke around 1200-1600m. As we saw in Monaco, whoever has the best final water jump will win.
desert Eagle wrote:
NAUSUX wrote:
No. We have 4 women that could hop I. The steeple and beat her. She’s incredibly overrated
Huh? Who can “hop in” and beat Coburn?
She’s a world champion, for goodness sake. These “hop in” folks would have done so were they able.
Yes, this is a totally moot point. If it was so easy, there would have been plenty of incentive to try the steeple with the deeper fields in 1500/5k.
rojo wrote:
Our intern thinks so.
However, she also might not medal.
https://www.letsrun.com/news/2021/07/2020-olympic-womens-steeplechase-preview-in-a-race-with-5-legitimate-gold-medal-contenders-can-emma-coburn-bring-home-the-gold-to-the-usa/The women's steeple should be full of drama. There are 5 legitimate gold medal contenders in our mind, including 3 women in the field who have won global titles but none have ever won Olympic gold. This should be a great one.
I prefer competition over "drama". Are you anticipating that 2 of the runners will take a spill, injure themselves and limp to the finish with an audience of a dozen people cheering them on?
No because she doesn't have the closing speed at the international level. She's able to keep pace. But a fast finish is a must.
Prediction: she pulls a Simone biles.
She is going to medal. The pace will suit her and yes she can close fast enough to get on the podium.
As long as she doesn't test positive for COVID, she has a realistic chance. There is nobody that far ahead of her and Chepkoech is nowhere near her previous level (speculating that supplementation she may have been on when she ran those times is now being tested for).
Of course, there is always the chance that an unknown Russian, Chinese or eastern bloc athlete comes out of nowhere and wins.
hobbyjogger1 wrote:
No because she doesn't have the closing speed at the international level. She's able to keep pace. But a fast finish is a must.
Coburn had the best finish 2017. 2015 she lost a possible medal on the last lap, 2016 she was beaten for silver on the last lap (coming from behind) , 2019 she had the best finish of the rest after Chepkoech had run away with an insanely fast first kilometer.
I don't think anyone has obviously a better finish. The main difference in 2018-19 was that Chepkoech could run away with a crazy pace and who dared to keep up risked a lot and who could not keep up was to far away from the action at the end.
But this time Chepkoech is not in that shape and it will be hot and humid. Kiyeng is the favorite, I think, but she lost both 2017 and 19.
I think 8:56 could win it, fast last 600m. Equals about an 8:04 for men talent wise. That might win the men's race.
Yes she medals, doubtful but possible- gold
She has the talent to medal and get on the podium. The question is will she win gold? No