1. Athing Mu - Women’s 800 - 75% - The only American middle or long distance runner who can be considered the outright favorite. 1:54.x gun to tape would honestly not be shocking.
2. Emma Coburn - Women’s Steeplechase - 55% - She’ll get a tough race from Chepkoech, Kiyeng, and Yavi, but should be considered among the medal contenders as much as anyone, having won gold in ‘17, silver in ‘19, bronze in ‘16, and having set PBs at 800, 1500, and 5k in the last 2 seasons.
3. Raevyn Rogers - Women’s 800 - 50% - Sliding in fairly low-key but I like her medal chances. She was the silver medalist in Doha, and at this year’s trials she lowered her PB to 1:57.66. She ran a 4:29 mile PB a few days ago, indicating great fitness. I wouldn’t be surprised by 1:56.xx for 2nd or 3rd.
4. Elle Purrier-St. Pierre - Women’s 1500 - 35% - She’s been on an impressive tear since late-2019, steamrolling her way to American indoor records in the mile and 2-mile before running 3:58 from the front to win the Trials. She may catch some lucky breaks with Hassan and Tsegay not entered (nor Houlihan), and if she can latch on to Muir she’s got a chance at a lesser medal (Kipyegon being the presumptive winner).
5. Ajee Wilson - Women’s 800 - 35% - She was the gold medal favorite heading into Doha 2019, where she placed 3rd, and is still technically ranked #1 in the world by World Athletics. But she had to scramble to qualify for the U.S. team behind two women I predict will continue to beat her, and there’s no shortage of ~1:57 women to contend with for the other medal at the moment.
6. Clayton Murphy - Men’s 800 - 25% - It’s hard to figure what we’ll see from Murphy in Tokyo, given his inconsistent nature (over the past 4-5 years, really), but we know when he’s at his best he can medal, and he was at his best as recently as 4 weeks ago. His European appearances since were rather lackluster, but perhaps it’s all part of his master plan?
7. Bryce Hoppel - Men’s 800 - 21% - 4 to 5 months ago I liked predicting Hoppel would upset Brazier for the gold medal. After running 1:43.2 for 2nd in Monaco ‘20 and then 1:44.37/2:16.27 (NR) indoors, he looked like a smart bet to improve on his 4th place from Doha. However, he’s stalled out at 1:44.x this outdoor season, which meant he had to work very hard for 3rd at the Trials, and he was only 11th and 5th in his two recent DL races.
8. Matt Centrowitz - Men’s 1500 - 20% - He looks to be back in 3:30-32 shape, he can kick almost as well as Hocker (wink), and he’s recognized as a master tactician who always gets to the right spot (hence the Olympic gold on his nightstand). Unfortunately for him, it’s strongly suspected that the Olympic final will be a fast race, minimizing the impact of his positioning and closing speed.
9. Galen Rupp - Men’s Marathon - 18% - Is 35 year old Rupp one of the 3 fastest marathoners in the world? Of course not. But fortunately for Rupp, Kenya and Ethiopia can only bring 3 athletes apiece, and the Olympic marathon is typically a war of attrition; despite his critics, Rupp’s proven himself to be one tough MFer, and an excellent performer in the heat. He’s the only athlete on this list who’s won medals at each of the last two Olympics.
10. Cole Hocker - Men’s 1500 - 16% - Without a doubt, Hocker has shown Olympic medal level closing speed in his recent NCAA and USOT wins. I’m giving Centro the nod due to a) international experience, b) expert positioning, and c) the luxury of being able to focus exclusively on peaking at the Olympics, which the NCAA champ did not have. That said, it’s within the realm of possibility that Hocker pulls off a Centro ‘11/Murphy ‘16/Hoppel ‘19, and caps his dream season with a 3rd or 4th place finish and perhaps a 4-5 second PB.
11. Hillary Bor - Men’s Steeplechase - 15% - Placed 7th in the event in Rio and 8th in Doha and is having a fairly promising season, winning a slow (8:30) DL race in Gateshead and earning his second U.S. steeple title. The steeplechase field seems a bit weak this year (after El Bakkali), but 5th-6th for Bor sounds do-able, a medal feels like a bit of a stretch.
12. Courtney Frerichs - Women’s Steeplechase - 10% - She took silver behind Coburn at the 2017 WCs, and was 6th in the event in Doha. She ran well at the Trials, putting at least some pressure on Coburn, but it’s hard to see her having the turn of speed when the real racing starts in Tokyo. 6th place again, I’d wager.
13. Isaiah Jewett - Men’s 800 - 10% - His showing in Tokyo will be one of the most intriguing of the list, in as far as it relates to the future of the event in this country. 2 months ago, the 24 year old college senior was a 1:45 guy—now, he’s a 1:43.85 man who established the entire tone of the U.S. final. Was that a stepping stone to 1:42.xx or the performance of his life? I guess we’ll get some idea in Tokyo.
14. Paul Chelimo - Men’s 5k - 7% - He medaled in this event in Rio (silver) and the London WCs (bronze), and looked strong winning the U.S. title this year. He was 7th in Doha, clocking 13:04 to the winner’s 12:58, and I expect Tokyo will be run in a similar fashion, if not faster. Against a field full of sub-12:50 runners, 6th-10th seems far more probable than a medal.
15. Emily Sisson - Women’s 10k - 5% - I think Sisson is on the level of the best we’ve ever had in the event, alongside Huddle and Flanagan, but her current competition makes medaling a seemingly impossible ask. The two low-29 WR-setters are the obvious favorites, but then you have the great Hellen Obiri, Gezahegne of Bahrain who’s flying under the radar as an awesome drug cheat, four others from Kenya or Ethiopia, not to mention Klosterhalfen and McColgan.
16. Molly Seidel - Women’s Marathon - 5% - I give her the nod as our best (slim) women’s marathon medal hope. After placing 2nd in her debut marathon at the Trials, she lowered her PB to 2:25:13 in placing 6th in London last year. This year she’s won two half marathons in 68-69 minutes and lowered her 10,000 PB to 32:02. Given the nature of the Olympic marathon, I suppose it’s conceivable that enough runners blow up that she winds up in 3rd.
17. Grant Fisher - Men’s 5k - 4% - I respect Fisher’s consistency and steady improvement (vs. the unpredictable and more injury-prone Woody Kincaid). I believe he’s capable of cracking 13:00 this season, and he’s developed a respectable last lap kick. But there are so many guys we know are capable of 12:50 or better, or of closing in 52-53 off a slow pace, that his chances of missing the final are decidedly higher than his medal odds. 7th-10th would be a very nice showing.
18. Yared Nuguse - Men’s 1500 - 3% - I think he has a 40-50% chance of making the final, compared with ~65% for Hocker and ~75% for Centro. He may well possess the tools to win a medal someday, but probably not in the next 3 weeks.
19. Karissa Schweizer - Women’s 5k - 3% - I’m not convinced she’s a 14:26 runner anymore, and even if she is, that doesn’t count for much in this ridiculously stacked field which includes 3 women who ran 14:15 at the Ethiopian Trials, plus arguably the two favorites in Hassan and Obiri. She should make the final but will be way out of medal contention.
20. Karissa Schweizer - Women’s 10k - 3% - She was well-beaten by Sisson at the Trials, and Sisson frankly has no chance of medaling either. The only reason to think Schweizer will turn the tables and beat Sisson in Tokyo is the significance of her 14:26, but since we’re here, it’s possible that Schweizer has felt the need to lay off what got her to 14:26 since approximately last December.
21. Benard Keter - Men’s Steeplechase - 3% - Bor seems like our only chance whatsoever for a medal in this event, though I do think we can put 3 in the final. Keter ran an 8:18 PB for 8th in Monaco 2 weeks ago.
22. Mason Ferlic - Men’s Steeplechase - 3% - He’s having a fantastic season but probably lacks the talent of an Olympic medalist. The field is fairly shoddy, so he could place 6th-8th if he runs a great race.
23. Woody Kincaid - Men’s 5k - 2% - I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt and say he has at least a 51% chance of making the 15 man final. I’ll be rather surprised should he place top-8.
24. Elise Cranny - Women’s 5k - 2% - I believe she will make the final. 1. Hassan 2. Tsegay 3. Cranny 4. Obiri? Please.
25. Grant Fisher - Men’s 10k - 2% - I’m not as down on our men’s 10k team as some posters, and feel we could go 8-11-13 or so on a good day—Fisher is my pick for that #8. 8th isn’t too far from 3rd in some events, but with the teams Uganda, Kenya and Ethiopia are sending for the men’s 10k, it could be 200m+ in this one.
26. Woody Kincaid - Men’s 10k - 2% - Yes, he outkicked Fisher in this event at the Trials, but Fisher has better consistency and a marginally better PB (27:11 to 27:12). Who knows, Kincaid’s obviously surprised us before.
27. Sally Kipyego - Women’s Marathon - 2% - She’s won Olympic silver before, nine years ago over 10,000m. However at age 35, and with lackluster results since finishing 3rd at the Trials, I expect simply making the team will prove the last hoorah of her career.
28. Cory McGee - Women’s 1500 - 1% - She ran marvelously at the Trials to earn a clear 2nd place in a 4:00.67 PB, but laid a bit of an egg in Monaco, finishing 11th in 4:04.20, behind Maclean. Making the final would be a good goal/result for her.
29. Heather Maclean - Women’s 1500 - 1% - She barely qualified for the USOT final on a questionable appeal, so an Olympic medal seems highly unlikely. Given her 800m background and upward trajectory, she does have a chance to make the final, but top 6 would be utterly shocking.
30. Rachel Schneider - Women’s 5k - 1% - Schneider, who turned 30 two days ago, has quietly, gradually developed into an Olympian with a great range of PBs (4:02-14:52-31:09). But this event is stacked and Schneider will do well to make the final.
31. Joe Klecker - Men’s 10k - 1% - “And with less than 100m to go Kiplimo breaks away from his compatriot...watch the clock, the Olympic record is going to be OBLITERATED—26:28, 29, 26:30 for Jacob Kiplimo of Uganda with his countryman Cheptegei just a few strides behind...now look at the battle for third, Kejelcha and Barega stride for stride—BUT WAIT, HERE COMES JOE KLECKER. JOE KLECKER WINS THE BRONZE IN 26:35.” Yeah, probably not.
32. Aliphine Tuliamuk - Women’s Marathon - 1% - She might have gotten the nod among our female marathoners, having won the Trials, had she not gone and gotten pregnant (seriously though, all respect for her life decisions). Giving birth 6.5 months before the Olympic marathon does nothing for your medal chances though.
33. Alicia Monson - Women’s 10k - 1% - She’s sort of the female Joe Klecker (recent college grad who had a strong but not spectacular NCAA career, who’s improving as a pro and just qualified for their first team by finishing a distinct 3rd in the 10k), but Klecker might be capable of running within 60 seconds of the 10k WR, while Monson certainly cannot.
34. Valerie Constien - Women’s Steeplechase - 1% - She was 6th in the steeple at NCAAs as a senior two years ago. She PR’d by 7 seconds to place 3rd at the Trials and make the team. Good for her.
35. Jake Riley - Men’s Marathon - 1% - I suppose if the top half of the field was led badly off course and they decided not to rerun the race or anything, Riley could sneak in for 3rd.
36. Abdi Abdirahman - Men’s Marathon - 1% - The man is literally 61 years old.
Thoughts? Criticism?