Prediction: Eliud Kipchoge won't win a medal at the Olympics

While I'm less confident about this then I was before his last couple races. The fact that the each country is only allowed 3 competitors in the marathon combined with Eliud's general consistency, and the incompetence/corruption in picking a team for most East African nations leads me to assume he'll at least finish top 3.

I don't particularly like how each 5k was slower than last (after the 10k split), but then again, I don't think he was specifically going out to run super fast.

There are two issues with this, 1) slowing down is just never good. 2) Kipchoge has traditionally always tried to run fast.

So why did he push it this time? Not as fit as he would like? Loss of confidence after London? Something else?

If I had to bet, I'd still bet on Kipchoge, but it would not surprise me to see him in 5th place or something like that. Going to be hot there even if they keep it up in Sapporo.

(I meant to ask "Why DIDN'T he push it this time?")

Personally I don't agree.

I thought he would just do a test run, to reassure himself, and that's what he did.

Kipchoge is very consistent with his plan before the race, and doesn't get caught in feelings. He just executed his plan.

That said, you might be right. And on this hand this makes the Olympics more exciting.

I also thought about the slowing 5K splits, but they were spot on the 2:05 pace they asked from the pacers. Maybe after it became evident that he would win there was no reason to push further, since surely if you go out at 2:05 pace you are fine with that time as long as that gives you the win. Especially 3 months before the olympics, there's not too much time to rest and do a full buildup if you take weeks to recover after an all out effort.

And he looked solid when running those faster 5K splits for sure. But I also think his stride has changed a bit from his best days, it was visible both in London and later stages of the race today (or maybe it's because he was running slower).

If it's true that he's slowing down, what a shame that he never got into a record-compliant race that had competent pacers to take him through half-way or into a fight with Bekele. Breaking 2 in my mind should have been done in a record-compliant manner -- he's the greatest marathon talent of the generation, and in my view we never really knew how much he could do.

Kipchoge looked very comfortable at the end of the race, but it would have been nice if he has thrown in at least one fast 5K towards the end to put some fear into the hearts of his competitors and silence the skeptics. Was this issue that he couldn't, or that the turn around to Sapporo is quick for his normal spring/fall schedule and he decided to put on the breaks a little. I hope the answer is the latter, but. I am afraid it is the former. For sure this result is not conclusive and will lead a lot of heated discussion as we wait for August.

Agreed. Not a great time assuming he wore super shoes.

Okay let me know for sure because I'm looking at betting 100k on these things:

Galen Rupp to medal

Japanese man to win or medal

I assume Kipchoge will be the odds on big favorite but betting him is a zero sum game since he's a bit off form and no longer a sure thing.

STEVE THE ADDICT^^^^^^"""""""" wrote:

Okay let me know for sure because I'm looking at betting 100k on these things:

Galen Rupp to medal

Japanese man to win or medal

I assume Kipchoge will be the odds on big favorite but betting him is a zero sum game since he's a bit off form and no longer a sure thing.

I know you're trolling with the 100k to bet, but that aside, all three of those items seem reasonable on their own. Rupp has already medaled in a hot Olympic marathon, the Japanese are really on fire lately and will be motivated, and of course Kipchoge is the marathon GOAT.

Most likely thing is Kipchoge winning, then even odds between Rupp and the Japanese getting a medal.

Rupp won't medal, Kenya and Ethiopia will share the medals and a young gun will take the gold.

Charlesvdw wrote:

Rupp won't medal, Kenya and Ethiopia will share the medals and a young gun will take the gold.

The olympics are generally less meaningful to the runners from poverty stricken nations. I'm sure Kipchoge is motivated for a gold because he's got his blue cheese already but if the other Africans are not millionaires, it is generally in their best interest to dope for a pay day at a major marathon instead of running the Olympics. Also to the person who said I'm lying about betting that much, Hey buddy, I wipe my ass with 100k.

The guy is in his 40s cut him some slack. He's still killing it as a masters runner. I laugh at anyone who thinks he's still in his 30s. He may lose in the Olympics to someone 20 years younger. It's possible.

SD Dude Bro wrote:

The guy is in his 40s cut him some slack. He's still killing it as a masters runner. I laugh at anyone who thinks he's still in his 30s. He may lose in the Olympics to someone 20 years younger. It's possible.

I'm not hating on the guy at all. I have the utmost respect for his longevity and accomplishments. I'm just saying it would be more sensible not to bet him to win because 1)he is the favorite so he will not have good odds value wise and 2) he may be past his prime due to age

He might not be a 2:01 guy anymore but he's still consistent. If it's hot in Sapporo that will disadvantage the Japanese and it will be Kipchoge vs. the other mostly inconsistent East Africans. I still see him placing top 3.

Has and T&F athlete medaled at the Olympics 17+ years apart? Honest question.

John Wesley Harding wrote:

Has and T&F athlete medaled at the Olympics 17+ years apart? Honest question.

*any

John Wesley Harding wrote:

John Wesley Harding wrote:

Has and T&F athlete medaled at the Olympics 17+ years apart? Honest question.

*any

close....

Maria Mutola:

1988 African Championships Annaba, Algeria 2nd 800 m 2:06.55

Summer Olympics Seoul, South Korea 21st (h) 800 m 2:04.36

1990 African Championships Cairo, Egypt 1st 800 m 2:13.54

1st 1500 m 4:25.27

1991 World Championships Tokyo, Japan 4th 800 m 1:57.63

All-Africa Games Cairo, Egypt 1st 800 m 2:04.02

1992 Summer Olympics Barcelona, Spain 5th 800 m 1:57.49

9th 1500 m 4:02.60

1993 World Indoor Championships Toronto, Canada 1st 800 m 1:57.55

African Championships Durban, South Africa 1st 800 m 1:56.36 (CR)

World Championships Stuttgart, Germany 1st 800 m 1:55.43

IAAF Grand Prix Final London, United Kingdom 1st 800 m 1:57.35

1995 World Indoor Championships Barcelona, Spain 1st 800 m 1:57.62

World Championships Gothenburg, Sweden — (sf) 800 m DQ

All-Africa Games Harare, Zimbabwe 1st 800 m 1:56.99

IAAF Grand Prix Final Fontvieille, Monaco 1st 800 m 1:55.72

1996 Summer Olympics Atlanta, United States 3rd 800 m 1:58.71

1997 World Indoor Championships Paris, France 1st 800 m 1:58.96

World Championships Athens, Greece 3rd 800 m 1:57.59

IAAF Grand Prix Final Fukuoka City, Japan 2nd 800 m 1:56.93

1998 African Championships Dakar, Senegal 1st 800 m 1:57.95

Commonwealth Games Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia 1st 800 m 1:57.60

1999 World Indoor Championships Maebashi, Japan 2nd 800 m 1:57.17

World Championships Seville, Spain 2nd 800 m 1:56.72

All-Africa Games Johannesburg, South Africa 1st 800 m 1:59.73

IAAF Grand Prix Final Munich, Germany 1st 800 m 1:59.10

2000 Summer Olympics Sydney, Australia 1st 800 m 1:56.15

2001 World Indoor Championships Lisbon, Portugal 1st 800 m 1:59.74

World Championships Edmonton, Canada 1st 800 m 1:57.17

IAAF Grand Prix Final Melbourne, Australia 1st 800 m 1:59.78

2002 African Championships Radès, Tunisia 1st 800 m 2:03.11

Commonwealth Games Manchester, United Kingdom 1st 800 m 1:57.35

2003 World Indoor Championships Birmingham, United Kingdom 1st 800 m 1:58.94

World Championships Paris, France 1st 800 m 1:59.89

IAAF World Athletics Final Fontvieille, Monaco 1st 800 m 1:59.59

2004 World Indoor Championships Budapest, Hungary 1st 800 m 1:58.50

Summer Olympics Athens, Greece 4th 800 m 1:56.51

2005 World Championships Helsinki, Finland 4th 800 m 1:59.71

2006 World Indoor Championships Moscow, Russia 1st 800 m 1:58.90

Commonwealth Games Melbourne, Australia 3rd 800 m 1:58.77

African Championships Bambous, Mauritius 2nd 800 m 2:01.08

2007 World Championships Osaka, Tokyo — (f) 800 m DNF

2008 World Indoor Championships Valencia, Spain 3rd 800 m 2:02.97

African Championships Addis Ababa, Ethiopia 2nd 800 m 2:00.47

Summer Olympics Beijing, China 5th 800 m 1:57.68

She was 5th in 92 and 08 at 800... thats pretty damn incredible but not medal.

Also Merlene Ottey comes to mind, let me check

YEP

Merlene Ottey won Bronze in 1980 over 200m and Bronze in 2000 for 100m

and a silver in the 4x1 to boot.

incredible longevity