I think that the main reason because Kenya is going to lose its supremacy is a false sense of democracy (the same of US, Australia and of all the Countries using dry trials).
Of course, Countries having a lot of talents have to guarantee opportunities also for newcomers. May be normal that an unknown US sprinter, or an unknown middle distance runner of Kenya, can improve so much in one season that he can have the opportunity to be selected and, why not, to win a medal. See last year Timothy Kiptanui, for example, or this year Daniel Kipchirchir Komen,
But I think that, when you have athletes that always were able to reach top results in top events, you must guarantee them that they must be sure about their selection. This was the main reason for the change of citizenship of Stephen Cherono : not money, but to be sure that he could run ALWAYS in WCh, Olympics (also if last year he didn't have the release) and every type of competition having a title. Top athletes know very well that, winning these competitions, you can have a lot of money from sponsors, Companies, organizers, IAAF. But you cannot win if you are not there.
When you have Michael Johnson, Bubka, Gebrselassie, Bekele, Shaheen, Maurice Greene of 4 years ago, Carl Lewis, Allen Johnson, Jonathan Edwards, Marion Jones, Paula Radcliffe, it's simply ridicolous to ask them to pass thru trials for qualifying themselves.
The case of Bungei in 2003 was clear : he was the winner of ALL the competitions till Kenyan trials, and during the last 3 years NEVER he lost one race from another Kenyan.
Being sick during the week of Trials, he was cut from WCh.
Do you think that he had the some opportunity of a newcomer ? Can you cancel 3 years of supremacy because you have a small problem for one week (but it's the wrong week) ? This is the first point.
The second point is a technical point.
Kenya is the only Country in the World that doesn-t respect the job of personal coaches and managers. An example : Brother Colm is following from the beginning of their career (I hads only a short period in 2003 with Augustine as coach) talentes like Isaac Songok and Augustine Choge. They were able to improve continuously, becoming the best Kenyans, always selected. The same for Eliud Kipchoge. When they win trials, is because their training is good, and it means that their coach and their manager are working very well for developing those athletes. After this, the Kenyan system is to put all together during the last 5-6 weeks, going to a National coach that nobody knows, that never spoke with the personal coaches, that doesn't know anything about the technical plans of the athletes, and that wants tu use a "plan of group" that is the most ridicolous choice before a top event. So, the normal solution is that the athletes go out of shape.
Kenyan say that they have to work like a team. But what does it means ? What is the team that can face the Ethiopians running 12:57 the last 5 km of 10000m in Paris, when the best PB of kenyan runners is 13:03 / 13:09 / 13:13 ? It's a problem of team, or is it a problem of personal value ?
They are speaking about tacticts, but nobody knows the other runners, because nobody has experience. All the coaches live always in Kenya. So, their tactical proposal are completely out of any reality. In Paris, the tactic of 3000 steeple for Kenyans was "You have to lock Stephen Cherono, then you decide who can win". After this, Ezekiel Kemboi said "we awaited a tactical race, and were surprised for the fast start of Shaheen". So, the tactical choice is for the stronger, not for the weaker : this one has only to follow and to await.
In Kenya, nobody is happy about this situation, but nobody has the balls for clearly speaking.
In Ethiopia the situation is very different. The National coaches are the coaches of the athletes from their beginning, so there is continuity in the training plan. The same is with my Qatari athletes : all them are always with me or with my collaborators, and never change their guide. I decide whom I put in the team, and every one has very precise targets far from the competition.
Till when Kenya doesn't modify this system, guaranteeing the full assistance to the best athletes, they go to lose their chance step by step.
But, for doing this, Kenya Federation must have more respect and knowledge for the coaches, understanding that the technical knowledge is something of important.
And, at the moment, it seems that the Officials think that a good coach is only an optional.