current status of the war seems to be:
RU was simply beaten in the North. They had to do a wild retreat into Belarus and RU, leaving lots behind and getting ambushed all the way.
In the South Mariopol is still not in RU hands, so there is no land bridge.
On the south shore, UKR anti-ship activity has kept the russians from amphibious landings or easy resupply of the south.
So the east.
RU is moving all its dead-tired, defeated men with their broken equipment to the East to make a last stand. There are no replacements. RU clearly does not trust any other soldiers. so the question is what kind of morale these battle-weary soldiers have, and if their equipment still works.
On the UKR side, they too are exhausted and stressed out and low on equipment. but they are defending their homeland and have the indigenous on their side and NATO is resupplying them.
The question is now what...if RU digs in...hard to see how UKR could mount an offensive to eject RU from UKR. So most likely, there will be two Ukraines...an East Ukraine puppet state and a free West Ukraine. Like the two germanies and two the two koreas.