So you're saying HG goes 13:36 on the WS course 6 months from now? I don't think so. There's a lot of hyperbolic arguing going on here. Yes, with proper preparation and if his frail superstructure held up to the stress of the not-entirely-smooth trail, and he was successful with his fueling/hydration/electrolytes he could win against SJ in his prime. But not by 2 hours. See, if you said 15 minutes, that would still be a magnificent victory, a "crushing" victory, and a reasonable argument, vs. the downright ignorant assertion that he could waltz to 13:36. I will say in a snow year he'd probably be less likely to posthole which could be an advantage during the first 30 miles or so, assuming he didn't freeze to death for lack of body fat.
To whoever said there hasn't been anything like an African presence in ultras, I suggest reviewing the history of the Tarahumara at Leadville and Angeles Crest.[/quote]
Do you really think Jurek would be within 15 minutes of Geb? He's got Jurek beat by 32 minutes on marathon PR's alone. Geb is not frail; he is light, strong and efficient, with means he'll have to do much less work than almost anyone else that chooses to do a 100 mile race. I really don't understand why people keep thinking that because Geb runs sub 2:04 on a flat course that it means he can't run on trails, there's a good chance he handles trails better than most of the best.
Maybe not all top marathoners could succeed at beating Jurek in a 100 mile race, he is a VERY GOOD ultra runner, but Geb is more efficient and has greater range than any runner ever; and you don't accomplish this by being weak and stupid. Considering that a number of top ultrarunners currently won ultras their fist time out, I find it odd that you would think the best runner the world has seen so far could not handle the challenge.
13:36 is ~8:10 pace; the average winners of Comrades (56 miles) typically go 5:30 pace; Geb could likely push that down a bit. On a hilly course, which I have raced enough to understand, Geb would slow down from 8 minutes, but do you really think he's dropping to 10:30 pace; WS is not a 100 mile version of Pikes Peak?
I'll settle on Geb only going 13:30-14:00 if he finishes and has an outstanding physical race, maybe 1 hr if he runs into a little trouble but finishes. One hour faster than Jurek's CR I think is realistic; actually I'd even say Carpenter(a few years back), if he focused on WS like he has other courses, could come close to a time like that.
Look, Jurek is a solid all-around runner and an awesome ultra-runner (I'm no Jurek hater), but just because an average good runner excels at longer races doesn't mean they have magic genes that separate them from eveyone else, including the best runners in the world. They put the work and time in to make the long race happen. Seeing that Geb likely already trains 150+ miles per week; I can't imagine he'd have to change too much to prep for a 100 mile race, even a hill one.
Lastly, I may be wrong, but Jurek seems like a fairly modest guy and I can't imagine he actually thinks he could beat Geb, or be that close to Geb, if Geb had time to prep for a successful race.