Finally -- Clarity in Women's 5k for US Olympic Trials

Valby will do what she will do but will any follow her if she is going at 15:00 pace? I can't imagine Schweizer or ESP doing anything more than kicking to get in top 6 tonight.

I saw your post in the other thread that it will be 85 degrees.

If that is the case yes I think Valby will go out and run 15 to sub 15 and no, no one will follow her. Why? It is what she likes to do, and she is immune to the heat.

The other top runners - ESP, Schweizer will run their own race and pick it up towards the end. I think Valby is winning this heat. If she cranks out a hot pace in the heat she may also get in everyones heads a little.

It may very well play out as you suggest, which is why it is quite possible all of the little q’s could actually come from the 2nd heat instead of the first. Hopefully, this makes it a little more clearer for those that are having trouble understanding how the heat running last has a huge benefit of critical information not afforded to the earlier heats.

Unless Tuohy and maybe a couple of others that don't have the standard try to get it so they can be good going into the final.

I don't think Tuohy and Morgan would be entered and declared if they didn't know they could run under 15:00. They are both recovering from injury and have a valid excuse to not be there. If they chose to enter they most likely have good reason to believe they can run 14:52 or better.

I agree except I don't think tonight is the night to run 14:52, especially from the front.

Agreed. However; those that don’t have the standard are just going to have to tough it out and run FAST. No sense showing up for the Trials and potentially placing top-3 if they can’t go to Paris.

I expect both heats to be very fast.

There is no advantage. If 10 runners in heat one go under 15:20, what are you doing in heat 2 if your PR is 15:15? Are you going to lead and sacrifice yourself? How about if the 1st heat is slow and 10th is 16:00? What are you doing differently in heat 2? Please lay out some scenarios. I have been a D1 coach for 27 years so I have a bit of experience in dealing with the outcomes. The historical data suggests that there is no difference. Qualifiers come equally from both heats or from all 3 or 4 for shorter events. Those are just facts. But I am curious to hear your logic of what various individuals should do in different scenarios. I have had in depth discussions with other coaches who normally start in your camp but change their mind after examining the data and when laying out a strategy for their own runners.

I feel sorry for your athletes if you actually are a D1 coach, because you seem to come off as a my-way-or-the-highway type of guy, even if your myopic thinking goes against common sense.

Before you consider ‘scenarios’, you must firstly embrace the fact that in this race, or any WA affiliated race, athletes are purposely seeded, as best as possible, in order to try and make the caliber of the heats equivalent.

I challenge you to research and then try and understand why WA went away from awarding little q’s. Only after doing that will you have something interesting to say on the matter.

well Whitni is the Valby heat which also has Buchalski and Nichols which may be an advantage. Who would be the one to drive the pace in heat 2? Smith and/or Donahu?

Looking to discuss is the opposite of close mindedness. I have asked for your opinion backed by rationale. Yet you refuse to provide it. My team was national last fall. How about yours? Guessing that you do not coach but you have for some reason chosen to be angered by my desire to engage in a calm discussion. That is what I enjoy doing.

The rules were changed because they want all heats to have the same number of qualifiers. One heat typically goes faster thereby eliminating some who had run faster prior to the meet. However, it is not the last heat that has a higher number, there is no correlation to heat number. I suggest that you research it and you will discover this.

I was very interested to hear your logic and for you to provide some scenarios and rationale but you don't seem to have any logic to back your opinion. It feels like an individual has a better chance being in a later heat, but it does not play out that way. Feelings aren't always backed by facts.

Heat 2? Tuohy.

Isn't the weather forecast for cooler weather in upcoming days? For those without standard, why not try to get the standard in the final?

Well if she could pull that off it would be quite the feat imho. But not the easy way to do it. I've always thought athletes in this situation should form "pacts" to help each other out, and may the best win in the last 1000.

as we speak, yes a little cooler (but not much) Monday.

Maybe KT will step up. Otherwise, post-race talk on how she had the fastest closing 400m might wear a little thin, no?

You are missing the point, which is provided by Mercer at the end of this article:

citiusmag.com

World Athletics Gets Rid Of Time Qualifiers At World Championship Heats, Semis - CITIUS Mag

Starting at this year’s World Championships, the 1500m, steeplechase, and 5000m will no longer have time qualifiers advance in heats and semis.

Link:citiusmag.com/articles/world-athletics...

*Merber

You don’t necessarily need a standard to be in the team. Many have good enough WA rankings including Valby