The second autoqualifier from NXR Southeast won’t finish very high at NXN this year
I'm going to guess that it's that way for the MW, HL, and NY as well. 2nd place team for each of these regions will finish in the bottom 1/3. SW, South, NW, CA will end up being the best regions in that order by average position of auto qualifying teams. I think the SE #2 will finish behind most of the at-large bids, as well.
I mean to say that Newbury Park averaged 15:21 last year as a standard for one of the best teams of all time. A 15:21 is a 15:36 at Bowdoin.
woah. Only 15 seconds slower on dry course??? Is that real? A 16:15 average at Bowdoin Park is only 16:00 at dry nxn?? Why is this thread acting like under 16:30 on this course is something great??? What is this???
If it's only 15 seconds slower, than the northeast is out classed. The 2 southwest at-larges will be around 15:40, 15:55 at NXN. Northwest 1 at-large 16:00. California probably same as Northwest. South at-large 16:05 probably
The second autoqualifier from NXR Southeast won’t finish very high at NXN this year
I'm going to guess that it's that way for the MW, HL, and NY as well. 2nd place team for each of these regions will finish in the bottom 1/3. SW, South, NW, CA will end up being the best regions in that order by average position of auto qualifying teams. I think the SE #2 will finish behind most of the at-large bids, as well.
Wouldn’t be surprising if both NY boys teams finish in the bottom 1/3.
The second autoqualifier from NXR Southeast won’t finish very high at NXN this year
I'm going to guess that it's that way for the MW, HL, and NY as well. 2nd place team for each of these regions will finish in the bottom 1/3. SW, South, NW, CA will end up being the best regions in that order by average position of auto qualifying teams. I think the SE #2 will finish behind most of the at-large bids, as well.
The Midwest teams aren't bad. Out of the regions that have had their race so far it's just the two HL teams and the second SE team that look like they'll struggle.
The SW, NW, CA and MW are nearly always the four toughest regions and the South teams look good enough to compete with them this year as well.
Speaking of the Heartland region, Stevens Point actually has the potential to be in the top 10.
Wayzata will probably struggle, but if their 5th runner (Dietrick) can do what he did at NXN last year or close the gap on their #5, they can do something special.
But the Heartland girls teams will definitely struggle and finish in the bottom portion
On the eve of the 2023 CIF-State Cross Country Championships (California), Jason Eichelberger and Rich Gonzalez of PrepCalTrack discuss each of the 10 races ...
Speaking of the Heartland region, Stevens Point actually has the potential to be in the top 10.
Wayzata will probably struggle, but if their 5th runner (Dietrick) can do what he did at NXN last year or close the gap on their #5, they can do something special.
But the Heartland girls teams will definitely struggle and finish in the bottom portion
That's probably fair. I think the vast majority of teams that make NXN have the potential to be in or at least near the top half of the field. I just don't think the Heartland teams are necessarily going to be favorites to be in the top 15 even after the field is complete.
This is roughly how I'm seeing things right now before we include the California, Northeast and New York teams (all in alphabetical order within the tiers):
Top Ten Favorites (6): Belen Jesuit FL, Coeur d'Alene ID, Crater OR, Downers Grove North IL, Franklin OR (NW#3), Riverton UT (SW#3)
Mid-Pack Challengers (7): Bentonville AR, Niwot CO (SW#4), Orem UT (SW#5) Plainsfield North IL, Plainsfield South IL (MW#3), Rocky Mountain ID (NW#4), Stevens Point WI, Wayzata MN
with Austin Vandegrift TX (SO#3) and Carmel IN (MW#4) and the SW#6/7 teams just off that grouping. Yes, only the top 4 teams from each region are eligible for At-Large bids, but just wanted to show just how deep the Southwest is this year just like most years.
I think it's a reasonable assumption that some of the teams from today's races will displace the "Mid Pack Challengers" group and join the "Top Ten Favorites" group. That means that for Stevens Point (or Wayzata) to crack the Top Ten, they'd have to not only beat all the other teams in their grouping (which will be made easier by not all of those teams getting At-Large bids) but also some of the teams in the group ahead of them. That's certainly possible if the teams ahead of them have a bad day and if Stevens Point or Wayzata have a good day, but if the teams run similarly to how they have been over the last month I don't think they'd be favored to do so.
Evan Noonan repeats as D3 Individual Champion leading Dana hills to a state team title with fastest individual and team time of the day. 14:35 for Noonan and 76:19 for Dana. San Clemente with second fastest team time at 76:28.
At large prediction: Riverton, Franklin, Oakdale, and either Great Oak or Ridgeline. I think Niwot is better than Great Oak, Franklin and Oakdale, but I doubt Southwest gets two in.
At large prediction: Riverton, Franklin, Oakdale, and either Great Oak or Ridgeline. I think Niwot is better than Great Oak, Franklin and Oakdale, but I doubt Southwest gets two in.
Evan Noonan repeats as D3 Individual Champion leading Dana hills to a state team title with fastest individual and team time of the day. 14:35 for Noonan and 76:19 for Dana. San Clemente with second fastest team time at 76:28.
The merge will be very interesting... Dana Hills, time-wise, benefits from having Noonan. It could be very close with San Clemente. It doesn't really matter though, as both will advance to NXN.
At large prediction: Riverton, Franklin, Oakdale, and either Great Oak or Ridgeline. I think Niwot is better than Great Oak, Franklin and Oakdale, but I doubt Southwest gets two in.
Yeah, I agree with that prediction. The last spot could go to Great Oak, Ridgeline, Niwot or Rocky Mountain or maybe Plainsfield South but I think Great Oak will get the nod.
On the girls side I think it's between Mountain Vista CO, Lone Peak UT, Trabuco Hills CA, York IL and Barrington IL. I think Mountain Vista and York are safe bets, and probably Trabuco Hills and Lone Peak getting the other two spots.
At large prediction: Riverton, Franklin, Oakdale, and either Great Oak or Ridgeline. I think Niwot is better than Great Oak, Franklin and Oakdale, but I doubt Southwest gets two in.
Ridgefield not Ridgeline!
You must be kidding, Ridgefield's top 5 ran 15:53, 16:26, 16:29, 17:02 and 17:05
At large prediction: Riverton, Franklin, Oakdale, and either Great Oak or Ridgeline. I think Niwot is better than Great Oak, Franklin and Oakdale, but I doubt Southwest gets two in.
Right now, Great Oak is ahead of Oakdale in a merge. This could flip when it’s re-scored with the top 20 teams. We’ll see
At large prediction: Riverton, Franklin, Oakdale, and either Great Oak or Ridgeline. I think Niwot is better than Great Oak, Franklin and Oakdale, but I doubt Southwest gets two in.
Yeah, I agree with that prediction. The last spot could go to Great Oak, Ridgeline, Niwot or Rocky Mountain or maybe Plainsfield South but I think Great Oak will get the nod.
On the girls side I think it's between Mountain Vista CO, Lone Peak UT, Trabuco Hills CA, York IL and Barrington IL. I think Mountain Vista and York are safe bets, and probably Trabuco Hills and Lone Peak getting the other two spots.
oh wow, forgot about the JSerra Catholic girls down in D4. That bumps Buchanan down to an easy At-Large leaving either Trabuco Hills or Lone Peak out.
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