"Pandemic of the unvaccinated" CONFIRMED

troll_69 wrote:

DanM wrote:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10017431/Professor-Chris-Whitty-warns-unjabbed-youngsters-infected.html

Funnily enough, there is strong evidence that Alpha, and Delta, have been successively more virulent and transmissible than antecedent strains. Just because viruses tend to get weaker with mutations, is no guarantee that they will, and certainly not the strongest basis from which to make policy.

You obviously don't know what virulent means.

The Clown Show wrote:

Times running out

What times?

Why does the Clown Show always say "tick, tick, tick" when he is cheering on the total gutting of the Bill of Rights?

formerly present wrote:

So you're saying not everyone dies from Covid-19? Yeah, I'm pretty sure everyone already knew and admitted that, but thanks for the reminder.

Now if that fact could only bring back the ~~700k American Covid dead...

.

699k who would have been dead by now had Covid never been created and released by Big Pharma.

Thanks for the explanation of R naught. I understand now how one disease (flu) could virtually disappear while another grows exponentially (COVID). This might explain the long term trend in my state, but it doesn't explain the recent steep downturn in cases.

Note: This is the CDC Covid data tracker for TN. I made the following assumptions. Correct any that are wrong.

Respiratory illnesses are seasonal, rising in flu season (Sep-Feb) and then declining.

If R_0 is much larger for Delta, how do you explain the steep decline in cases in TN in Sept? Vaccinations have declined. We're going into flu season. Last year, Covid increased exponentially as flu season started. This year, it did the same, but then it mysteriously started to decline.

This flies in the face of the R_0 explanation. It's flu season AND kids have started back to school. Even with masks, kids will be at higher risk. You can't just say R_0 is the cause of one rise and ignore it when there is a decline.

Some of the assumptions here are wrong. What are they? (This is my first attempt at posing from imgur. I apologize if it doesn't work.)

https://imgur.com/a/Dsfx7fm

I hate that we can't edit posts here! By "Vaccinations have declined" I meant that the vaccination rate in TN has declined. In the past month, only 200k have been vaccinated. That's only 3%. Vaccinations didn't prevent the rise in August so they aren't the cause of the decline in September.

So... R_0 doesn't explain this. If the R_0 premise doesn't work here, then it brings the whole R_0 premise of Covid vs flu into question. Something else is going on. What is it?

The Unkle wrote:

Why does the Clown Show always say "tick, tick, tick" when he is cheering on the total gutting of the Bill of Rights?

I like giving ya'll a reminder about that clock that is running down on your ideas of freedom and rights. Brightens my day knowing it's only a matter of times.

The Unkle wrote:

Why does the Clown Show always say "tick, tick, tick" when he is cheering on the total gutting of the Bill of Rights?

Who, exactly, is gutting the Bill of Rights? And what, exactly, has been done (thus far) to change anything with the Bill or rights? Examples, not hypothetical conspiracies, please.

The existing case law leans HEAVILY in favor of the governments requirement and need to protect its citizens, not your frail and biased interpretations of personal liberty, freedom to do what you want and say what you want at all times. Not a draconian, end-of-times move, just a necessary measure to protect the population and the Republic at large.

But back to your statement: Is it the great boogeyman, also known as the ageing, moderate Democrat Biden??? Is it the senile TV MD, Anthony Fauci??? Is it the slimy, grinning billionare gAtEs??? Is it GEORGE MF SOROS??? IS IT BIGGGG PHARMA????? Pray Tell, wise old troll.

The Clown Show wrote:

The Unkle wrote:

Why does the Clown Show always say "tick, tick, tick" when he is cheering on the total gutting of the Bill of Rights?

I like giving ya'll a reminder about that clock that is running down on your ideas of freedom and rights. Brightens my day knowing it's only a matter of times.

I am tired of waiting. Will you hurry up with that clock?

Brightens my day knowing you come here everyday writing "tick tick tick" like a moron.

R_0 just describes how transmissible a virus is (roughly) innately. There are tons of variables that affect how well a virus -actually- spreads.

~50% of TN is vaccinated. Likely ~40-50% of the population also has contracted COVID. Herd immunity can greatly lessen transmission - look at the cases in the USA before Delta - many places were effectively at no transmission. Then Delta - with much higher R_0 came along and broke through pre-existing herd immunity (i.e. R_t went above 1 because it was more transmissible).

People change their behaviors as the virus rises and falls, in the middle of a massive peak many people take more precautions than when there are very low cases.

So, there are a lot of variables that can explain the rise and then fall. It's some combination of

1) tons of new infection on top of more vaccinations and previous case-load = back to more herd immunity that successfully controls Delta's increased R_0

2) changed behaviors at the margin that limit spread during the big spike

Seasonality describes many viruses and is a combination of weather effects on the immune system and personal behaviors and some other things. Delta is so transmissible that it doesn't really care about weather and people's behavior -- it spreads happily in any conditions it seems.

TL;DR. There probably wasn't that much 'headroom' left when you combine cases+vaccinations pre-Delta. Delta gobbled up the remaining non-immune people super fast and is now hitting herd immunity resistance.

Probably some effect from changed behaviors as well.

"I can't afford to lose anyone," says Ted LeNeave, CEO of Accura HealthCare, which operates 34 nursing homes and assisted living facilities in Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska and South Dakota. Because of staffing shortages, they've had to limit admissions, turning down patients coming from hospitals.

With about 1,000 of his employees — 38% of his workforce — unvaccinated, LeNeave is calling on the federal government to provide a testing option for health care workers. He's proposed that those who remain unvaccinated would undergo regular testing and wear full PPE, arguing that it's a safer alternative to losing a lot of workers.

"I just don't see how I can lay off a thousand people," says LeNeave. "I'd have no one to take care of the patients, and there's nowhere to send the patients."

https://www.npr.org/2021/09/23/1039228806/nurses-are-in-short-supply-employers-worry-vaccine-mandate-could-make-it-worse

FYI, folks: the term is spelled "R nought" and not "R naught." Both are pronounced the same, but a zero (as in R0) is a nought and not a naught. An amazing number of sources are getting this wrong.

Naught is the same as Nought. It's old English. As is Nowt.

oh pIease wrote:

troll_69 wrote:

Funnily enough, there is strong evidence that Alpha, and Delta, have been successively more virulent and transmissible than antecedent strains. Just because viruses tend to get weaker with mutations, is no guarantee that they will, and certainly not the strongest basis from which to make policy.

You obviously don't know what virulent means.

I would really appreciate an explanation then. As far as I'm aware, virulence in epidemiology refers to the ability of an infectious agent to produce disease. By that definition, Alpha and Delta have been more virulent strains than their predecessors.

DanM wrote:

"I can't afford to lose anyone," says Ted LeNeave, CEO of Accura HealthCare, which operates 34 nursing homes and assisted living facilities in Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska and South Dakota. Because of staffing shortages, they've had to limit admissions, turning down patients coming from hospitals.

With about 1,000 of his employees — 38% of his workforce — unvaccinated, LeNeave is calling on the federal government to provide a testing option for health care workers. He's proposed that those who remain unvaccinated would undergo regular testing and wear full PPE, arguing that it's a safer alternative to losing a lot of workers.

"I just don't see how I can lay off a thousand people," says LeNeave. "I'd have no one to take care of the patients, and there's nowhere to send the patients."

https://www.npr.org/2021/09/23/1039228806/nurses-are-in-short-supply-employers-worry-vaccine-mandate-could-make-it-worse

Vaccine pushers like Harambe are killing old and disabled people.

Chilling!

troll_69 wrote:

oh pIease wrote:

You obviously don't know what virulent means.

I would really appreciate an explanation then. As far as I'm aware, virulence in epidemiology refers to the ability of an infectious agent to produce disease. By that definition, Alpha and Delta have been more virulent strains than their predecessors.

Virulent means extremely severe or harmful in its effects. Delta variant here in the UK is considered more contagious but less virulent.

As viruses mutate, they usually become more infectious, but less harmful.

Dew wrote:

Vaccine pushers like Harambe are killing old and disabled people.

Chilling!

An empty chair is less dangerous for the elderly than an antivaxxer.

oh pIease wrote:

Virulent means extremely severe or harmful in its effects. Delta variant here in the UK is considered more contagious but less virulent.

As viruses mutate, they usually become more infectious, but less harmful.

Sometimes, sometimes not. Not worth betting either way.