Boston 2022 Cutoff Prediction Thread

very happy

Congrats everyone! Feels good that no one gets shut out over cutoff. I like that if you hit the mark, you get in.

cyanide wrote:

Wow, see us all there!

So 24,000 applicants and 6,000 charity/corporate? that's a lot of C&C: 20% ?!

for many years, the corporate, municipal, and club entries out-numbered the charities

not sure, but think the charity groups make up more than 50% of the non-qualifiers now

BAA needs to do the right thing and now open it up to anyone who was registered for the 2020 race. But they botched their 2020 approach so they won't.

Chrisfilm wrote:

BAA needs to do the right thing and now open it up to anyone who was registered for the 2020 race. But they botched their 2020 approach so they won't.

wih a 4-year-old qualifying time? Why?

Between 2019 and 2021, you've had plenty of time and races to qualify again.

Chrisfilm wrote:

BAA needs to do the right thing and now open it up to anyone who was registered for the 2020 race. But they botched their 2020 approach so they won't.

But then you'd have people using qualifying times that are 3 1/2 years old... that's a bit much.

If you're in decent shape and serious about marathoning you've probably found a race to run in the last couple years.

There's some in-between thing they could do like allowing people to qualify with an April-August 2019 marathon? I don't know, it's probably too late.

I wonder how many people would apply but decided not to based on fearing the time cutoff?

I mean that would be odd... bc at worst you'd be rejected anyway.

So 30k people applied for the 2019 race, 23k accepted and a field size of 30k. 4:52 cutoff was the biggest at the time.

The following year with the tougher standards, 27k people applied and 24k were accepted with the slightly bigger field size (31.5k). 1:39 was the cut.

A return to the now standard 30k field size, only 24k people applied, roughly the same as the number accepted for the 2019 and 2020 races (2021 is a total outlier). No cutoff.

Curious to see the international registration numbers compared to years past, but still a smaller number of applicants than I thought there would be.

BAA must look like a bunch of idiots as saint Dr Faucci announced today that hospitalization is rising among fully vaccinated in US and immediately booster is required.

I wonder if BAA will "follow the science" and require boosters or maybe 2 ? or will they stick to the meaningless policy.

Hypocrisy at the highest level.

that makes no sense wrote:

Chrisfilm wrote:

BAA needs to do the right thing and now open it up to anyone who was registered for the 2020 race. But they botched their 2020 approach so they won't.

wih a 4-year-old qualifying time? Why?

Between 2019 and 2021, you've had plenty of time and races to qualify again.

Not really. The races I was looking at in spring of 2021 all got pushed to fall or virtual. And between a combination of a hot summer and other personal conflicts I wasn't able to get a good training session in for the fall races. Sure, technically 'my fault' but I also did actually qualify, get accepted, and didn't get to run. And I can certainly get myself in shape by next spring. Also didn't the other majors all allow a deferral to any of the next 3 years' races? So it's not like this would be unprecedented.

bliheris wrote:

BAA must look like a bunch of idiots as saint Dr Faucci announced today that hospitalization is rising among fully vaccinated in US and immediately booster is required.

I wonder if BAA will "follow the science" and require boosters or maybe 2 ? or will they stick to the meaningless policy.

Hypocrisy at the highest level.

Don't really see any hypocrisy whatsoever.

Statistically it's something like this:

Unvaccinated --> 10 x more likely to be hospitalized than Fully Vaxxed -->2-5x more likely to be hospitalized than Fully Vaxxed and Boosted.

The difference between mild cases will narrow after 6-8 months for unvaxxed vs. vaxxed, with the booster making a larger difference.

So, the only thing hypocritical would be if they changed course at this juncture for a very statistically defensible policy.

Chrisfilm wrote:

that makes no sense wrote:

wih a 4-year-old qualifying time? Why?

Between 2019 and 2021, you've had plenty of time and races to qualify again.

Not really. The races I was looking at in spring of 2021 all got pushed to fall or virtual. And between a combination of a hot summer and other personal conflicts I wasn't able to get a good training session in for the fall races. Sure, technically 'my fault' but I also did actually qualify, get accepted, and didn't get to run. And I can certainly get myself in shape by next spring. Also didn't the other majors all allow a deferral to any of the next 3 years' races? So it's not like this would be unprecedented.

Those are all "you" things, that happen to everyone. 24,000 people managed to deal with the same circumstances and qualified within the time period. All the major races that provide qualifiers happened, and the races that normally wouldn't qualify for Boston the following year (Berlin, Chicago, NYC) all happened, so it's equivalent to them having 2020 entrants.

If we're still complaining that they didn't give out deferrals in 2020, that ship sailed a long time ago.

THOUGHTSLEADER wrote:

bliheris wrote:

BAA must look like a bunch of idiots as saint Dr Faucci announced today that hospitalization is rising among fully vaccinated in US and immediately booster is required.

I wonder if BAA will "follow the science" and require boosters or maybe 2 ? or will they stick to the meaningless policy.

Hypocrisy at the highest level.

Don't really see any hypocrisy whatsoever.

Statistically it's something like this:

Unvaccinated --> 10 x more likely to be hospitalized than Fully Vaxxed -->2-5x more likely to be hospitalized than Fully Vaxxed and Boosted.

The difference between mild cases will narrow after 6-8 months for unvaxxed vs. vaxxed, with the booster making a larger difference.

So, the only thing hypocritical would be if they changed course at this juncture for a very statistically defensible policy.

PLUS:

once kids are vaccinated and the majority of the vaccinated community has boosters, there's going to be even a wider discrepancy in cases, hospitalizations and deaths betwen the vaccinated and non-vaccinated. I expect the anti-vaxxers understand this, which is why they're trying to discredit both boosters and campaigns to vaccinate children.

The main point is that you shouldn't have to be accepted into Boston twice to run it once. This would be a non-issue if they filled to capacity and had to turn people away like usual but since they came in under, does it really hurt to reach out to those few who were in this weird limbo period of about 6 months that had already been accepted (not just qualified, actually registered and accepted) to offer them a chance?

THOUGHTSLEADER wrote:

bliheris wrote:

BAA must look like a bunch of idiots as saint Dr Faucci announced today that hospitalization is rising among fully vaccinated in US and immediately booster is required.

I wonder if BAA will "follow the science" and require boosters or maybe 2 ? or will they stick to the meaningless policy.

Hypocrisy at the highest level.

Don't really see any hypocrisy whatsoever.

Statistically it's something like this:

Unvaccinated --> 10 x more likely to be hospitalized than Fully Vaxxed -->2-5x more likely to be hospitalized than Fully Vaxxed and Boosted.

The difference between mild cases will narrow after 6-8 months for unvaxxed vs. vaxxed, with the booster making a larger difference.

So, the only thing hypocritical would be if they changed course at this juncture for a very statistically defensible policy.

Can you tell me statistically who has greater chance of hospitalization from vid people with natural immunity unvaxed vs vaxed with induced immunity ?

BAA did purely political decision with not whatsoever ground for it.

This year with testing or vax option it was not a problem whatsoever.

Not only they divided and sanitary segregated runners but also hurt an image and prestige of the race. The 0 cut off is only a proof.

Still I congratulate all the qualified runners and wish the good luck.

bliheris wrote:

Can you tell me statistically who has greater chance of hospitalization from vid people with natural immunity unvaxed vs vaxed with induced immunity ?

BAA did purely political decision with not whatsoever ground for it.

This year with testing or vax option it was not a problem whatsoever.

Not only they divided and sanitary segregated runners but also hurt an image and prestige of the race. The 0 cut off is only a proof.

Still I congratulate all the qualified runners and wish the good luck.

You're bringing up semantic points. They might be good for scientific theory but they are not good for practical, real-world solutions. The way to verify this sort of thing is an anti-body test, which can be pricey, hard-to-find and inaccurate. Trusting every person who claims they don't need the vaxx because they have natural immunity is faulty. The stats back up that getting the vaxx will only bolster their protection.

There is little reason to believe that a significant portion of the potential field was weeded out by the vaxx requirement. Maybe a handful. The number of runners who would demand the unvaxxed have a neg. test OR antibody positive test would be a larger number, thus moving the BAA to waste time and resources catering to a couple hundred runners. Makes no business sense, and isn't political but rather comes down to dollars and cents.

The entire case is so absurd.

Fully vaccinated can get covid and spread it to others period.

Exactly the same way as unvaxed.

Why should I be pushed to take a vaccine to be able to run a race ? while my close friend got heart inflammation from the vaccine by the book confirmed by physicians side effect of the vaccine. Completely healthy guy before. Another quite famous runner on YT lung clot after vaccine.

Rare cases? I have some insight into world elite middle distance runners community. Some of them because of vaccine side effect lost 2-3 weeks of training in preparation to Olympics. Some are open about it some not.

So that's what I know.....but that's rare yes for sure....

We're sidetracked here, but you are overcomplicating this.

People in the race who are vaccinated want you to be vaccinated to ride on the bus and compete with them. Sucks for you, but they will put up a stink if you aren't forced to provide proof of vaccination or a negative test. The BAA doesn't want the headache of checking your negative test. Sorry, man.