NXN 2023 Way too early preview: Dawn of a new Era

Niwot had the 2nd fastest team average of all time at the Colorado state meet this year. The only team to run a faster average is Cheyenne Mountain's 2021 team.

Lol.

Rocky Mountain was very up in arms about being left out last year, but what was their most impressive victory on their schedule? Great Oak had multiple runners ill and watch the start last year. Rocky cut all of the way over and Great Oak got pushed out the back.

They beat Skyridge by 17 points, Farmington by 18, and Corner Canyon by 67.

Corner Canyon finished 9th at NXR Southwest, Skyridge finished 10th, Farmington finished 15th. Their big out of region wins were in their own backyard on their home course by a not big margin to teams that were either ill or not competitive at their regional meet.

Their resume is less impressive this year. At least they won the Idaho State meet last year. If 3 Boise guys run a combined 2.8 seconds faster, Rocky finishes 3rd at the State meet.

If you want to compare times to woodbridge run 3 miles on a track and cut a lap off you get your woodbridge performance.

heres my data set- dont know how accurate it is - so take it for a grain of salt.

Team time = Woodward Park/Huntsville Park (team average)
75:00 minutes = 15:00/14:35
75:30 minutes = 15:06/14:41
76:00 minutes = 15:12/14:47
76:30 minutes = 15:18/14:53
77:00 minutes = 15:24/14:59
77:30 minutes = 15:30/15:05
78:00 minutes = 15:36/15:11
78:30 minutes = 15:42/15:16
79:00 minutes = 15:48/15:22
Newbury Park 2021 = 14:40/14:14 - 1st runninglane
Great Oak 2021 = 15:45/15:17 - 7th runninglane
Conversions for the Colorado State Championships -
Niwot(77:35) = 15:31/15:06
Rock Canyon(78:45) = 15:45/15:19
Cheyenne Mountain(78:55) = 15:47/15:21
The Classical Academy(78:55) = 15:47/15:21
Mountain Vista High School(78:55) =15:47/15:21
notes - Course conversions for the Colorado course is estimated to be around 24 seconds slower than Woodward Park course. If you think it is closer to 28 seconds, then minus another 20 seconds to the team time below. But my data sets are pointing more towards 24 seconds than it is to 28 seconds.
Woodward Park - Clovis Invitational - 2023
Dana Hills(77:30) 15:30/15:05
Great Oak(78:20) 15:39/15:13
Oakdale(78:25) 15:40/15:14
Ventura(78:30) 15:41/15:15
San Clemente(78:56) 15:46/15:20
Conversions for the Utah State Championships
15:14 American Fork(76:10)
15:25 Herriman(77:05)
15:41 Lone Peak(78:25)
15:53 Orem(79:25)
15:56 Mountain View(79:40)
15:58 Riverton(79:50)
Herriman, Orem and Riverton appeared to have an off day, considering what some of their earlier races looked like. We will see how things will change at NXR Southwest.

The season resume/body of work thing should be thrown out the window this year, at least for the Northwest region. With the level of competition in the region this year, combined with the performance of Jesuit and Crater at NXN last year, the team that finishes third on Saturday should be going to NXN, period.

If Rocky Mountain gets third by 1 point over, say, Franklin, but are far back from CDA and Crater, they absolutely should not go.

Rocky Mountain trains on this course at least twice a week. If a regionally strong team can only muster 3rd on a course that is known to be difficult and tricky that they have seen more than any other team, that's a good indicator that they may not be as competitive on a course they haven't seen.

But I don't think it's going to even be a thing, because I think that Rocky will finish 4th or 5th.

CDA, Crater, Jesuit, Boise, Rocky, Franklin, Star Valley, Summit, Seattle Prep, Bozeman.

That's the order I'm going with.

Hinsdale Central was 8th last year, the top team outside of anything west of the Mississippi, and they are likely not as strong as DGN. I think you may be surprised. They do not have a stud top runner, but what they have is one of the strongest packs in the race. However it goes, it will not be as predictable as last year, neither for team nor top runner.

Hinsdale central lost to 7th San Clemente (78:20), 6th Great Oak(78:00) last year. It is expected that there will be 4 California and 4 southwest teams in the (77:xx) at nxr southwest and California. Combine that with powerhouse teams from other regions such as cba, Belen Jesuit, Vandegrift, Southlake Carroll. Downers grove would be extremely luck to get into the top 12.

It sounds like all teams need to travel to Woodward park next year so they can be judged on the California scale

Ah yes, the usual experts who so confidently proclaim where a team is or isn't going to finish. I love that people still make claims like this. Kind of like last year where you look back and see how many people on these boards posted about how CBA would be a top-5 team. And they got oh so close...if you consider 18th place close...

Do we not learn to make such surefire predictions? Things can change drastically.

Your right NXR Midwest is this week. I may have to take back what I said about them if they run better than where I have them. Anything can change by NXN

I absolutely agree. I get that teams want and go to Woodbridge for a fast time but it’s not always a great indication of where California teams are at the beginning of the season. For example, Woodbridge was Dana Hills’ first race of the season and without a couple squad.

If teams want to know where they truly stack up against California teams and or want to vy for an at large berth, race at the Clovis Invitational that is held at Woodward park and use the same course as they do at the state meet.

Regional is easy to guess at order.

Unless a team has gone out of the area at least a couple of times, then it's impossible to figure out where anyone stacks up.

Kinda fun to look at the very first post on this thread.

Only 1 one these teams can make the NXN podium, really.

Crater probably had a good shot to make it too, but their #1 returner is currently not their #1 runner, and their #2 returner isn’t even scoring.

Wayzata’s #3 returner missed the beginning of the season and isn’t scoring right now. And now the gap between their 4th and 5th runner is big. They dominated the state meet, but I’m not sure if they can make it past Stevens Point and Dowling Catholic (who’s 5th man ran a 16:01 at state) to make it to NXN.

NXR autoqualifier predictions for this weekend:

Midwest:
Boys: Downers Grove North IL / Carmel IN
Girls: York IL / Downers Grove North IL

Heartland:
Boys: Stevens Point WI / Dowling Catholic IA
Girls: Wayzata MN / Olathe West KS

Northwest:
Boys: CDA ID / Crater OR
Girls: Jesuit OR / Lincoln OR

This didn’t age well

In the Texas thread, yes, this team should have been mentioned more often.
They ended up making the podium at the state meet.

But on the national level, the hype is not all that necessary. They took third at the state meet, but they were way far behind Southlake Carroll and Austin Vandegrift, so they are far from making NXN

I delved deeper into my Woodward Park/Huntsville data and made some adjustments. Please take what I have to say with a grain of salt, as this is all for fun and can serve as a reference tool. It was mentioned by someone from Colorado that the course was significantly more challenging than the Woodward Park course. If it's a hotter and wetter Colorado State course, the conversion could potentially exceed 34 seconds. Under perfect conditions, it could be as low as 28 seconds. Assuming my conversions are correct:
For the Colorado State Championships 2023, the times are as follows: Niwot (77:15), Rock Canyon (78:25), Cheyenne Mountain (78:35), Classical Academy (78:35), Mountain Vista (78:35). At the Clovis Invitational, conditions were warmer, resulting in a 3-second average decrease. Heat conversions for other courses are as follows: Dana Hills (77:15), Great Oak (78:05), Oakdale (78:10), Ventura (78:15), San Clemente (78:41).
Regarding the Utah State Championships, it remains a mystery to me. I suggest we skip the Woodward Park conversions for Utah this year and wait to see how the Utah team stacks up against the Colorado teams.
Another piece of data worth considering is the Southern Showcase. I heard the course was muddy and wet this year, so I recommend subtracting an average of 5 seconds from the Southern Showcase times. Belen Jesuit (77:40) and Jesuit LA (79:10) were the converted team times for the teams at Southern Showcase.
Here is the list of team times for the top 10 teams at Runninglane 2021: 2nd - Cheyenne Mountain (76:10), 3rd - Jesuit OR (76:55), 4th - Union Catholic (77:15), 5th - Grapevine (78:05), 6th - Farmington (78:10), 7th - Great Oak (78:35), 8th - Niwot (77:45), 9th - Valor Christian (78:40), 10th - American Fork (78:40). Some of the top 10 teams under-performed, including Farmington and American Fork, who were clearly (77:xx teams midseason). My guess is that there will be 8 teams at NXN capable of (77:xx) range performance. Another 3 teams will be capable of (76:xx), and 1 team more will be capable of (75:xx) – this will be the winning team. That would be 11 very good teams. I am not stating that the teams capable of running these performances will necessarily achieve them at the national stage. Most likely, 75% of the teams that show up to NXN will underperform compared to their full capabilities, while 30% will significantly underperform (as seen with Christian Brothers 2022 and Southlake Carroll 2022 at NXN). Ok that's it for my Woodward Park/Hunstville Data set of 2023.