NXN 2023 Way too early preview: Dawn of a new Era

Millikan - Manhattan Invitational - 13:28 team average - Christian Brothers 12:44 team average

Millikan - Woodbridge Invitational - 15:26 team average - Herriman 14:23 team average

Are you actually trying to compare differences of team avgs on a 2.5 mile course with those on a 3 mile course? There has to be a better way for you to try and prove that cba isn’t that good…

If 4 Cali teams run sub 77:30, how many bids would that be? 2, 3, or 4?

Do people here really not know that at-large bids are capped at 2 per region?

Yes. To be clear, I meant 2 total (+0 bids), 3 total (+1 bid), or 4 total (+2 bids)?

If an Oakdale top 5 guy is out for the season, that would make Dana Hills, San Clemente, and Great Oak the top 3 teams.

Please get the order right:

Dana Hills

—

—

Great Oak

—

San Clemente

Ventura not in the running anymore? Fast Horse will def make as individual if not

Do people here really not know how absurd saying 4 teams will run under 77:30 is?

If this happens give them all the bids. ALL OF THEM.

Yes it is insane. But this is what southwest top 4 teams will do. We may not be able to match Herriman-American Fork (who are most certainly under 76:30). But our top 4 teams can match bottom 2 southwest teams if we get them all under 77:30. Talked about a stacked year in the west. Edit: Rethinking that Herriman/American Fork may not taper for nxr, so their performance at nxr is not guaranteed to be sub 76:30 performance. For NXN, they will bring their A game.

The Jesuit team from 2019 is the best California team that did not qualify for NXN, recording a time of 77:50, which ranks them 19th all-time. Currently, achieving times under 77:30 is a challenging feat in California, with Dana Hills being the only team that comes close to this level of performance. At the Clovis Invitational in 2023, the California team results were as follows: Dana Hills (77:34), Great Oak (78:20), Oakdale (78:25), Ventura (78:30), and San Clemente (78:56). Furthermore, NXN seems to be more competitive this year compared to the previous year. For instance, the California team Granada managed to secure a spot in NXN with a time of (78:36). In the California State Championships in 2022, the results were as follows: Great Oak (78:00) - 6th at NXN, San Clemente (78:21) - 7th at NXN, Oakdale (78:32) - 2nd at RunningLane, and Granada (78:36) - 16th at NXN.

If four California teams achieve times under 77:30, then the allocation
for the bids should ideally include two teams from the Southwest and
two from California. This would be the case unless the third team from
the Northwest region manages to achieve an exceptionally fast team time.

I would feel very sad for stealing another bid from the Northwest this year. Don't worry, Northwest. These California teams are quite vulnerable with only 5 runners. At least two of these top five teams will struggle at the state meet and won't come anywhere close to
77:30. This is all hypothetical.

Definitely hypothetical, but I definitely appreciate the response. I feel like people have been down on California, but I think they're going to surprise this year. Not predicting four under 77:30, but I honestly wouldn't be surprised to see it (or extremely, extremely close) and was curious to know if people thought it would be enough to get 2 at large bids again.

Thanks again

Downers Grove North from the Midwest may surprise and be a top 5 team. They won IL state with a very small split. I see AF or Herriman as the winner, with Dana Hills up there.

Times have a lot to do with weather and what time of day they race. If it is a warm day in Fresno it will be tough for teams racing later in the afternoon. Since the teams are different divisions that could be a factor.

Yeah he will qualify as an individual, but everyone else who was on varsity for Ventura last year didn’t improve as much as they needed to

Depends on how many teams in the west get to compete in NXN.

Midwest's strongest team US #12, Downers Grove North, would most likely get wrecked by the majority of these teams in the southwest. Herriman, American Fork, Lone Peak, Niwot, Riverton, Mountain View, Orem, Classical Academy, Rock Canyon, Mountain Vista, Cheyenne Mountain, and a lot of California teams as well.

Downers Grove North averages 14:40 3 mile at detweiler (November)

Rock Canyon averages 14:45 3 mile at woodbridge (September).

Down their number 3 runner from last year. They have a good top 3 now, but their 4/5 are super streaky and they don't have reliable 6/7+ to fill in the gaps. Their 4/5 are also like 16 minute 5Kers at their best so if they do poorly, their team score sky rockets harder than any other team in the running for a nationals spot.

I think they place 4th at best (with plenty of room to plummet), and there is no way CA gets 2 at large's this year. More likely Ventura qualifies 2 individuals to NXN than they make it as a team, and their 2nd individual is pretty unlikely to make that cut.

If it's a Rocky Mountain at-large bid, I won't feel bad about stealing that bid. Let's do this CALIFORNIA!!! 4 TEAMS AS CLOSE TO 77:30 AS WE CAN GET