rojo wrote:
Unless that new google company drastically expands humans lifespans, it's not happening in my lifetime on a standard course with the current rules.
-Rojo PS. I say standard course and standard rules as i already think it's currently possible if they drive behind the lead pack with a machine that blows like 20 mph winds at the runners back for the whole race.
A few notes on this:
1. Progress is not linear. You say it in jest I assume, but "that new google company" or what it represents, will alter your lifespan and at the same time change the entire landscape of athletics, turning it into more of a virtual-reality artistic expression limited only by one's imagination. We have hit a plateau more or less when it comes to human performance, but there will be a quantum leap forward that makes current records irrelevant.
2. The question is whether or not 2:00:00 can be eclipsed before that event horizon referenced in point 1 becomes a reality.
3. Barring some sort of wind-aided course, it would take an improvement in aerobic power of about 4%.
4. The 5K/10K records are very much relevant in this discussion and give one a better grasp on the leap in performance it would take to better 2:00:00. We are talking about running the equivalent of 12:20/25:40, which is not going to happen ahead of the technological advances in point 1.
5. It is absolutely going to be broken, but by the time it is, millions of people will be able to do it, not just one or two.
6. Damn, Tergat has really put on weight! It goes to show how lean he actually was. A more interesting question that breaking 2:00:00 for the marathon: Could Paul Tergat break 14:30 for 5K within 6 weeks of today?