If they had six months to train (starting today), who would win a hilly 100-mile trail ultra: Haile or Scott Jurek?

Jurek? wrote:

Add $100,000 of prize money to any ultra event and you would never read Jurek's name again. Get serious.

Unfortunately, I think this poster hit the nail on the head.

SserPrun95 wrote:

[quote]Bum wrote:

[quote]currently reading Born to Run wrote:

[quote]Runningart2004 wrote:

Before you get too excited by that comparison you should note that he ran the ultra 12 years after setting his marathon PR. That takes you from 25 (prime of your life) to 37.

Not for ultra events. Prime is closer to early to mid-30's. Even in the TDF, mid to late 30's compete every bit as well as mid-20's

Runningart2004 wrote:

All of you 2:30 marathoners out there...go run a 100mile trail race in 6 months and tell me how you do and how many barely sub 3:00 dudes get you good.

who gives a shit? That's like telling a gourmet chef that the kid down at mcdonalds can flip way more frozen patties than him over the course of 24 hours.

youu suuck wrote:

You started running 6 years ago. You are a hobby jogger. And you're not very good. Haile would win. If he didn't then you can't call 100 miles a legit race. It's just a feat.

Given Geb's record at cross country events I think we can conclude that cross country is not a legit race.

And can we focus here, please? The question is not is there some top marathoner out there who could cruise at a 100 mile trail race. The question is, could *Geb* do it? We aren't talking about million dollar prizes for Western States to get all the top Kenyans and forcing every sub 2:10 marathoner in the world to run 100 miles at gunpoint. It's about Geb.

DontFeedTheTroll wrote:

And can we focus here, please? The question is not is there some top marathoner out there who could cruise at a 100 mile trail race. The question is, could *Geb* do it? We aren't talking about million dollar prizes for Western States to get all the top Kenyans and forcing every sub 2:10 marathoner in the world to run 100 miles at gunpoint. It's about Geb.

And the ultra people respond with surely Geb would blow up... no way no how he could win because he would blow up. The ultra guys are arguing that Geb, one of the greatest distance runners ever (at any distance he has ever run) couldn't handle the rigors of running an ultra and are implying that the current top ultra guys are the absolute pinnacles of the discipline. Why Geb seems to be so uniquely susceptible to this distance in your minds I do not know, but the response to that is well if Geb would blow up how about you choose from the 1000's of guys with significantly better pr's than the top ultra runners. I really don't understand why the ultra crowd views fast prs at the marathon or shorter as something to hold against a guys potential in that event especially when for the longer conventional distances they are already running 100mpw+.

Now, theohiostate is going to respond with a "blah blah blah... you just get a 2:1X speed marathoner into one of these things and lets see how he stacks up against the 3 hour crowd" and there will be the inevitable response of there is no money so why in the world should they? which he will dismiss saying they should do for pride and being great at an event very few people compete in. A 2:10 marathoner could probably also be a superb racewalker, but why do this?

Haile would most likely win the race given the training, they both would start out at about the same speed, I highly doubt Haile would just go out and pound out 100 miles at his marathon pace.

Michael Wardian: 2:21 road marathon, 2:5x road 50k, 19:32 at States last year. A full three hours off the pace.

Be interesting to see what Max King does at States this year.

hola hola wrote:

(for the record, I don't think this guys 80/10/10 diet is the secret to his success. His natural talent and durability is.

read more about him. He was really wussy runner even on normal or low fat vegan diet, but once he switched to raw food (only raw fruits and vegetables), his times improved dramatically in matter of months.

of course it's possible that such diet might be suicide for someone else, but at least for this guy it was recipe for succes.

theohiostate wrote:

LOL, so you're the spokesman for the 2:15 crowd, huh?

If it's so damn easy, then let's see ONE 2:10-15 guy spend a few months of ultra training, jog over to Leadville, Colorado and win their ridiculously non-competitive race!

Don't criticize what you know NOTHING about.

This is exactly what happened at this year's Leadville; your challenge has already been taken care of; the fact the people choose to ignore it is their own fault.

I don't tink Tim Parr has even run a 2:15 marathon; he's definitely a sub-14:30 guy and he won the thing first time out.

Yeah, the thing about Tim Parr is that he's primarily a mountain running guy who happens to also run marathons, and for the record he's a high 2:20 road marathoner.

Because he's gone under 2:30 in a road marathon you assume his main focus is roads - not so - he's a mountain runner.

His 17:30 at Leadville was strong, but by no means knocking it out the ballpark, considering that MC's CR at Leadville is 15:4x, and 2:42 marathoner Anton K has gone low 16s.

notanultraguy wrote:

And the ultra people respond with surely Geb would blow up... no way no how he could win because he would blow up. The ultra guys are arguing that Geb, one of the greatest distance runners ever (at any distance he has ever run) couldn't handle the rigors of running an ultra and are implying that the current top ultra guys are the absolute pinnacles of the discipline.

I don't think I've seen anybody say Geb absolutely would blow up or that he couldn't win (maybe Bum is the closest?). I have seen a bunch of people say that it is an unknown and that there are some requirements for a 100 miler that aren't there for a marathon.

I highly doubt Haile would just go out and pound out 100 miles at his marathon pace.

Well, what would be a good pace for him? I am guessing (trying to) what his splits would be-

Let's say he starts out at 7 minute pace, so his 25 mile splits are 3, 6, and 9 hours. So he gets to 75 miles in 9 hours. Would he have enough glycogen available to do this? Anyway, he gets to 75 miles in 9 hours - does he sit down and have a meal? I guess he could, or carbo load or something and then walk/jog the last 25 miles at 10 minute pace (another 4 hours) and finish in 13-14 hours? I have no idea, but my initial reaction to this is that, the same physical adaptation you have to make to marathon training has to be made to 100 mile training- and the body has to be trained to spare glycogen 4x whatever it spares for the marathon. Unless of course there's a limit to that aspect of ultramarathon training.

Point being, on that day he won; and he outlasted the experienced, he ran a smarter race than Anton who pushed himslef too hard in the begining and paid for it. YAlso, you can't so easily compare one Leadville to previous years. Parr is a short distance guy, this is exactly what you are looking for. Yes, he has run some mountain races, but that is not what we are talking about here. He is a fast "short/normal" distance runner, likely much faster than your Jurek, and he managed the 100 mile race fine. If Parr can do it, Geb would crush everyone, assuming he ran smart, and Geb is not a dumbass.

Parr is enough proof, you are just choosing to change the senario. I'm pretty sure Geb would crush Parr or even Carpenter in any shorter mountain race, so no offense to Tim, who is a great guy and ra eally good runner, your point that he is a mountain runner is worthless.

In the end, the point is, your challenge has already been taken care of, so stop using it as an argument.

For a start, I'm not advocating anything on the Jurek front, so please refrain from referring to him as "my Jurek." I'm well aware that he's past his prime, for what it's worth.

Not quite sure why you can't compare one Leadville to another. Yes, there was a slight course change this year, but nothing significant. Does that mean, by extension, that you can't compare one marathon time to another across the years? If so, then I guess Meb's WR is irrelevant. Fact is Parr was almost two hours slower than MC - another mountain running guy, not marathoner, and an hour slower than Anton from previous years.

I don't want to talk for Timmy and what he is and is not, but he clearly enjoys running a range of distances, and would probably not label himself as a "short/normal distance guy" - more likely a mountain runner, if he had to label himself.

I wouldn't say he managed the 100 mile distance fine either. He had some serious issues late in the game, just like Anton. And for the record Anton was there for the record - not the win.

I'm not trying to change any scenario, just letting you know that Parr isn't necessarily a road guy.

No thoughts on Wardian's finish at Sates last year?

To the other recent commenter who was saying that Meb would start out at 7 minute pace for 60 miles, sit down and have dinner and then walk the last few miles and still finish in 15 hours. Yes, I realize that you are trying to be funny (and failing), but you can't extrapolate pacing from a road mindset. On some of the climbs at WS, he'd be moving at over 10 minute pace. I don't care how fast the dude runs roads, there comes a point where the gradient is going to reduce your pace to a crawl - that's just a fact, especially on technical climbs.

Geb crushes everyone if he doesn't DNF from renal failure doing all those junk miles.

On Geb specifically, I suspect that he would indeed crush the course record at States if he trained for it. The guy is carrying very little weight, and is accustomed to running trail, so he would be very well suited to a faster course like Western States.

I'm not sure he would be as fast as some here seem to think, but you have to think that with some experience he would definitely go sub 15. My suspicion, however, is that his times would be more impressive at the 50 mile distance. 100 miles is a long ass way, and it becomes way less about running talent (pure speed) than is the case with a 50 miler or even a 100k.

As somebody else mentioned earlier, the nature of the terrain is also a significant factor in trail 100s and does a lot to level the playing field and reduce the advantage of pure speed.

Road 50 or 100k and Meb knocks existing records out the water, no question.

theohiostate wrote:

Look, all I am saying is this: Find ONE 2:10 or so marathoner, get him into a major 100 miler, and let's see what happens. If he smokes Jurek, Melzer, Roes and the bunch, then OK...

I'm not sure why most them would want to, but this guy seems like he might have had some potential, if he had ever bothered with a 100 mile race.

2:10 marathon and 100 km world record.

Here is a thought on Mike Wardians WS:

Did you know he was 6th in the World 100k in Belgium 9 days prior to Western State? I'm guessing that he might have been a little tired from 50 miles on he road, yes, even Mike.

It is possible that he ran a few extra miles, even if that is not mentioned in his race account. Mike is also not a great hill climber. I've been close to him at Mt. Washington, but his 50k PR is about 16 minutes faster than mine.

Oh, and Geb was beat Jurek soundly.

Dude, Tim is a solid sub-elite runner, and he has proven strong on hills, but he is not an ultra-guy. This is a perfect example of what you have asked for so stop hedging it.

Geb has range, probably more than most runners, if not all, and just because he doesn't race hills doesn't mean he is not efficient at it.

Also, Matt C ran his Leadville time on try #2 and he did not run 2:12 the week before at pikes peak. As it stands Tim has a leg up on Matt seeing that he finished and won first time out.

Indeed the race day does play a factor considering the length; everything from weather, the field, others good and bad race strategies, all have a big potential to effect the winning times.

This whole thing is stupid, as Jurek isn't even the top ultra guy in the world, or the US for that matter. He would get slaughtered at Comrades. Geb Trains more than most top ultra guys, likely does more hill-work, is much faster, and is one of the most efficient runners ever, ever. He would beat Jurek (and Carpenter) by hours, multiple hours if he had the time to focus and prepare for it.

Thank God this started as a troll thread