OK well, If you selected a high school XC team of 25-30 boys with times ranging from like 16 minutes to 30 minutes, you'd probably find it'd be more like 5% (or maybe only 2-3%). BUT 5-10% continuation in college competition of some sort (NCAA, NAIA, NJCAA, ..NIRCA, etc.) is still great... probably much much higher than for other sports kids play in high school.
The nice thing about running is even if you are mediocre and not an IMPACT runner (perhaps 25-26min 8k shape), because running is a cheap sport (by that, i mean the time and investment required by coaching -> coach doesnt have to spend much time with you if he thinks you're just a "scrapper"...these Walk-ons can just have a spot on the roster and, from coaches perspective, who cares, just let them try to keep up out on training runs with the scholarship guys... And in our sport it's good practice to take walk-ons because you never know where they'll end up once they get some college training....Whereas with a HS basketball to NCAA transition, you have a better idea that there are kids you just know suck nuts and, from the coaches perspective, probably aren't going to be worth the investment of time effort and just take up space in the locker room and on the court lol.
What is it for HS basketball onto the NCAA? maybe 2%? Then again, for basketball the kids who are on the varsity roster in high school at least made it past some cuts so they are probably serious athletes to begin with. The 30minute'ish 5k kids who come out for High School XC (because there are no cuts) havent yet given the college competition much thought I'm sure...unless they improve a ton, perhaps down to the 18/19s for 5K senior year.
