Josh kerr opened up about a 5-10cm gap on Jakob and maintained that all the way to the line in the last bend at 90m mark in the prefontaine mile. Jakob couldn't close it moreover couldn't filter right out wide to prepare any overtaking. Last lap was 53.x seconds, faster than any of the 54 and 55 seconds Jakob has ran his sub 3:30 1500m this year at Oslo and Monaco. Euros he was outside 3:30 so his 53 second close doesn't count since it's a slower time.
Whoever can close a 3:27 and 3:28 race in 53, or even 52 I believe must have the upper hand for gold. Only 2 man can do that and those were the same 2 who came top 2 at prefontaine mile. But for me, i think Josh has the slight edge just because he has a faster 800m pb and could have run 1:45:00 at british trials 800m final if he didn't fall down.
Jakob leads from the front, they are on pace for 3:28 and Kerr sits tightly on his shoulder with 200 left. Who you got?
Prefontaine mile was a 3:28 converted 1500m and Josh kicked in 53s and beat Jakob. He even opened a slight gap in the last 100m. Josh looked very easy and relaxed round the track in prefontaine and still run 3:28 equivalent 1500m. Base on his ease I think it’s reasonable to say he could move up a gear to run 3:44 and 3:27 already at prefontaine. One has to feel very good to move so far out from 600m and go against the wind.
so I think Josh has a 3:27 in him at prefontaine and closing at the same speed of 53s. The athletes are so fit and efficient that a 1 second increase in time difference result doesn’t drastically alter the 53s closing kick at all, if at all.
I would expect Josh to kick it at same 53s even if it was a 3:27 race. Josh stride is definitely also smoother than Jakob.
Jakob leads from the front, they are on pace for 3:28 and Kerr sits tightly on his shoulder with 200 left. Who you got?
Prefontaine mile was a 3:28 converted 1500m and Josh kicked in 53s and beat Jakob. He even opened a slight gap in the last 100m. Josh looked very easy and relaxed round the track in prefontaine and still run 3:28 equivalent 1500m. Base on his ease I think it’s reasonable to say he could move up a gear to run 3:44 and 3:27 already at prefontaine. One has to feel very good to move so far out from 600m and go against the wind.
so I think Josh has a 3:27 in him at prefontaine and closing at the same speed of 53s. The athletes are so fit and efficient that a 1 second increase in time difference result doesn’t drastically alter the 53s closing kick at all, if at all.
I would expect Josh to kick it at same 53s even if it was a 3:27 race. Josh stride is definitely also smoother than Jakob.
Right on, Kerr looked like he was running on air around the track in eugene, superb ease while Ingebrigtsen looked to be tripping all over his body. His arms carriage looked very shabby and not disciplined in motion like those of Kerr. That was the same with his legs and so it also looked like he was limping and favoring one leg and needed a sniper trained vision like mine to visually extrude from him. I had to re-run the video 5-6 times and really focused all my concentration just to extrude it.
I think it will be very close again this time between Kerr and Ingebrigtsen in Paris, personal bests times really don't matter within a certain range. They are all sub 3:30 runners, not like one of them is sub 3:20 or something. Stride rhythm and kicking ability matters a lot, as well as tactics and strategy. Go 1 second too late or early is all the difference. Kerr said he is fit enough to make a mistake in the 1500m but Ingebrigtsen hasn't said that yet. Still waiting to hear from him that he can make double the mistakes Kerr said he can make and still win.
If 3:27 I'll give it to Jakob because Kerr would really have to run out of his skin and there is just hanging on that point and no kick to deploy.
Fair enough. But for Jakob to run 3:27 alone from the front after 2 fast rounds is really a tough ask. Even el g ran with a pacer for the 99 seville up till 800m at least. He ran 3:27:65. If that's the time Ingebrigtsen is aiming to run alone after 2 rounds then I don't know what to think. He will open himself up to all sorts of attacks from the pack.
3:27 solo from Jakob is basically not happening. He hasn't ever done that and won't be doing it after rounds in the heat.
Jakob leads from the front, they are on pace for 3:28 and Kerr sits tightly on his shoulder with 200 left. Who you got?
Prefontaine mile was a 3:28 converted 1500m and Josh kicked in 53s and beat Jakob. He even opened a slight gap in the last 100m. Josh looked very easy and relaxed round the track in prefontaine and still run 3:28 equivalent 1500m. Base on his ease I think it’s reasonable to say he could move up a gear to run 3:44 and 3:27 already at prefontaine. One has to feel very good to move so far out from 600m and go against the wind.
so I think Josh has a 3:27 in him at prefontaine and closing at the same speed of 53s. The athletes are so fit and efficient that a 1 second increase in time difference result doesn’t drastically alter the 53s closing kick at all, if at all.
I would expect Josh to kick it at same 53s even if it was a 3:27 race. Josh stride is definitely also smoother than Jakob.
I think there is a mental component in the mix too. I think Josh is capable of a much faster time but hasn't explored his boundaries as much as Jakob has. In a paced DL race, I don't see Josh jumping on the heels of the pacer like Jakob does. Maybe this is why Kerr doesn't see the point in entering these races - why should he practice trying to run a PB or WR when he can focus on executing tactically and peaking perfectly for the only race that matters. Jakob is willing to put more on the line in the middle of each race. This is why I favor Kerr for a championship final... Jakob simply ain't running it fast enough to drop the others.
Prefontaine mile was a 3:28 converted 1500m and Josh kicked in 53s and beat Jakob. He even opened a slight gap in the last 100m. Josh looked very easy and relaxed round the track in prefontaine and still run 3:28 equivalent 1500m. Base on his ease I think it’s reasonable to say he could move up a gear to run 3:44 and 3:27 already at prefontaine. One has to feel very good to move so far out from 600m and go against the wind.
so I think Josh has a 3:27 in him at prefontaine and closing at the same speed of 53s. The athletes are so fit and efficient that a 1 second increase in time difference result doesn’t drastically alter the 53s closing kick at all, if at all.
I would expect Josh to kick it at same 53s even if it was a 3:27 race. Josh stride is definitely also smoother than Jakob.
Right on, Kerr looked like he was running on air around the track in eugene, superb ease while Ingebrigtsen looked to be tripping all over his body. His arms carriage looked very shabby and not disciplined in motion like those of Kerr. That was the same with his legs and so it also looked like he was limping and favoring one leg and needed a sniper trained vision like mine to visually extrude from him. I had to re-run the video 5-6 times and really focused all my concentration just to extrude it.
I think it will be very close again this time between Kerr and Ingebrigtsen in Paris, personal bests times really don't matter within a certain range. They are all sub 3:30 runners, not like one of them is sub 3:20 or something. Stride rhythm and kicking ability matters a lot, as well as tactics and strategy. Go 1 second too late or early is all the difference. Kerr said he is fit enough to make a mistake in the 1500m but Ingebrigtsen hasn't said that yet. Still waiting to hear from him that he can make double the mistakes Kerr said he can make and still win.
LOLz, brilliant.
I have to say I am fascinated by disadvantage of front running. Is it more the mental aspect or a physical one (wind)??? I think Jakob knows if he's on WR pace based on effort, but if he's leading the whole way he just can't run as fast in the end. I imagine it must be impossible to psyche yourself up to attempt a WR run in an Olympic final. I mean Rudisha did it, but it was 2 laps and the guy just mastered being in a pain chamber.
Just being objective here. These are what my sniper academy eyes see. If you are myopic, fret now, I'm here to sincerely point out what you cannot see:
1) Kerr did pulled away from Ingebrigtsen at Prefontaine mile even if by a little bit and the latter gave up and even had to dip his head at the finish line. He was well spent.
2) Kerr had a better running stride from start to finish. Less ground contact time and more air time which is beneficial for running fast and kicking. Ingebrigtsen was clearly limping on and favoring one of his legs as one of his legs don't seem to cycle through properly from ground contact to the next time it hits the ground again. There seems to be premature landing due to overcompensation and imbalance on one side of his leg which I imagine is the achilles injured one. This improper cycling of his legs leads to loss of air time and more time spend on the ground. He is unable to 'take flight' as well as Kerr. Kerr was really flying, he had a flying stride, you can see it best from final 400m to 300m and final 300m to 150m when the camera pans directly on both Kerr and Ingebrigtsen's stride rhythm.
It's all these tiny little details and fine margins that makes all the difference. The difference between Trump being alive and dead is not even 1mm, but 0.1mm and less. The differences between Kerr and Ingebrigtsen stride becomes magnified because the consequences are severe. Like very severe, just read this ancient wisdom below will you?
"For want of a nail the shoe was lost, for want of a shoe the horse was lost; and for want of a horse the rider was lost; being overtaken and slain by the enemy, all for want of care about a horse-shoe nail"
3:26.73. That's all that needs to be said.
Did you check last year's Silesia 3:27:14. I paste the video for you see here again. It can be said that the race last year was a disastrous pacemaking job from McSweyne because he left Ingebrigtsen so far out alone the entire race. Ingebrigtsen couldn't take advantage of any drafting provided by McSweyne at all. At one point, Ingebrigtsen was almost 15-20 meters away from McSweyne and so it can be revealed that had the wind drafting be better and Ingebrigtsen waste less energy running almost all by himself the entire way, he actually already had the 3:26:73 season best last year 2023 and not necessarily only now in 2024 at Monaco. Make sense? Especially since Ingebrigtsen had way better drafting at this year's Monaco from Zan Rudolf whom he shadowed within inches the entire way up till 1100m. McSweyne went till 1200m last year at Silesia but what's the point when he was always 10-20 meters in front of Ingebrigtsen the whole time? What sort of drafting and pacing is there exist? None.
I wouldn't be surprised that Ingebrigtsen ran even faster last year if he got perfect drafting and pacemaking combined like those at this year's Monaco DL, something like 3:26:14?? Very close to el g WR I would say. But he still loss to Kerr in Budapest despite being in technically 3:26:14 shape last year. This year's 3:26:73 would then be a downgrade and deprovement from the technically 3:26:14 last year which then means he is even more likely to lose to Kerr in Paris since he has ran slower and in poorer form.
Everybody asks now how Ingebrigtsen is running a new PB while starting his season so slowly and was with an achilles injury? Well he didn't actually run any new PB because his actual PB before wasn't 3:27:14 but technically 3:26:14 had he not run completely alone the entire race in Silesia and McSweyne not been such a bad pacer.
Ingebrigtsen with his slow start season and achilles injury would only be a running a season's best of 3:26:73 rather than a new PB because his technically extrapolated PB should have been 3:26:14 from last year except bad drafting and pacing.
I followed Kerr since 2017 when he ran at New Mexico and won multiple indoor and outdoor 1500m and mile titles against King Ches, and Kerr always had a very uniquely effortless and 'air zoom' type of mechanics. King Ches was no match for Kerr's designed-for-speed mechanics. I saw just how many times Kerr moved whenever and wherever he wanted and instantly left King Ches in the dust with just a few steps. King Ches was himself a 3:49 miler and pretty speedy in his prime. But King Ches just didn't have suitable enough mechanics to be as durably fast as Kerr at sub 60 second per 400m speed. That's that....
Did you check last year's Silesia 3:27:14. I paste the video for you see here again. It can be said that the race last year was a disastrous pacemaking job from McSweyne because he left Ingebrigtsen so far out alone the entire race. Ingebrigtsen couldn't take advantage of any drafting provided by McSweyne at all. At one point, Ingebrigtsen was almost 15-20 meters away from McSweyne and so it can be revealed that had the wind drafting be better and Ingebrigtsen waste less energy running almost all by himself the entire way, he actually already had the 3:26:73 season best last year 2023 and not necessarily only now in 2024 at Monaco. Make sense? Especially since Ingebrigtsen had way better drafting at this year's Monaco from Zan Rudolf whom he shadowed within inches the entire way up till 1100m. McSweyne went till 1200m last year at Silesia but what's the point when he was always 10-20 meters in front of Ingebrigtsen the whole time? What sort of drafting and pacing is there exist? None.
I wouldn't be surprised that Ingebrigtsen ran even faster last year if he got perfect drafting and pacemaking combined like those at this year's Monaco DL, something like 3:26:14?? Very close to el g WR I would say. But he still loss to Kerr in Budapest despite being in technically 3:26:14 shape last year. This year's 3:26:73 would then be a downgrade and deprovement from the technically 3:26:14 last year which then means he is even more likely to lose to Kerr in Paris since he has ran slower and in poorer form.
Everybody asks now how Ingebrigtsen is running a new PB while starting his season so slowly and was with an achilles injury? Well he didn't actually run any new PB because his actual PB before wasn't 3:27:14 but technically 3:26:14 had he not run completely alone the entire race in Silesia and McSweyne not been such a bad pacer.
Ingebrigtsen with his slow start season and achilles injury would only be a running a season's best of 3:26:73 rather than a new PB because his technically extrapolated PB should have been 3:26:14 from last year except bad drafting and pacing.
How much does drafting affect the performance of a 1500? I think it's more mental. When you know the guy in front of you is running WR pace but will drop out at some point, you just run freely until you absolutely have to deal with the reality of the pain and discomfort.
Ingebrigtsen with his slow start season and achilles injury would only be a running a season's best of 3:26:73 rather than a new PB because his technically extrapolated PB should have been 3:26:14 from last year except bad drafting and pacing.
Ok that's not how real life works. I can easily argue Jakob benefited from time off to recover from a multi-year unsustainable training load. This hypothesizing is useless and only the printed times and place matter.
There’s no denying that Kerr has gotten a couple over Jakob, but it is Jakob’s commitment to racing frequently and taking risks that makes him the people’s champ imo. Something very arrogant and dislikable about Kerr- showing blatant disrespect to Jakob
That would be Kerr. It may be harder to judge if the race gets any faster like 3:27. But I think 3:28 is right around the likely final result at Paris. Otherwise it'll probably be 3:29 again.
If 3:27 I'll give it to Jakob because Kerr would really have to run out of his skin and there is just hanging on that point and no kick to deploy.
Kerr can't run 3:27, he has no capacity, why are you overestimating him so much.He finished his job. He is a world champion. What do you expect from him? World record? 5 golds? We'll speak in less than 3 weeks.
There’s no denying that Kerr has gotten a couple over Jakob, but it is Jakob’s commitment to racing frequently and taking risks that makes him the people’s champ imo. Something very arrogant and dislikable about Kerr- showing blatant disrespect to Jakob
Lolz but the people's champ is allowed to show blatant disrespect???
If 3:27 I'll give it to Jakob because Kerr would really have to run out of his skin and there is just hanging on that point and no kick to deploy.
Kerr can't run 3:27, he has no capacity, why are you overestimating him so much.He finished his job. He is a world champion. What do you expect from him? World record? 5 golds? We'll speak in less than 3 weeks.
Lolz you didn't get it. My point is Jakob ain't running a 3:27 solo in the final. Give Kerr the respect he has earned. He is the reigning outdoor world champ, a WR holder and reigning indoor world champ, and beat Jakob again not long ago. I expect him to run down Jakob again in the final.
So you are telling me that all he needs to run so far to be the “best in the world” is an Oregon relays 800, Pre Mile, and the UK champs 800m where he fell, and he is somehow the best 1500m runner in the world?
The one above has to be one of the worst takes ever. While you are talking about the 1500, it can't be forgot he has run a 2-mile WR this year and also DOMINATD the 3000 at world indoors.
But for the 1500:
1) He is the defending world champ.
2) He showed up in the biggest mile fo the year and kicked everyone's ass at Pre.
3) He's going to the Olympics. If he wins that, he's clearly the #1 1500 guy in the world.
Here is another HORRIBLE take:
Kerr Hater wrote: He has a spotty track record in world and olympic finals and even moreso in regular season races
Kerr has literally run his seasonal best time at the global championships in each of the last 4 championships 2019, 2021, 2022 and 2023. The guys track record in global finals is near perfect.
Do I wish he'd race a little more? Sure. Not doing the DL finale is a joke but he's gonna have at least 4 big races this year.
Millrose, World Indoors, Pre and Olymipcs. There's your Grand Slam track right there.
this is very well put, except odds makers and the letsrun consensus thinks
jacob fully fit (which he is) is 5 or so seconds faster in the 2 mile than kerr.
and
jacob was coming off injury, and kerr's victory margin won't be the same moving forward, as he's in good shape now.
kapish?
moments like these, you can get 1 to 1 odds on kerr jacob with guys like rojo. sad to miss the boat on this.
That is precisely how this sport works. It's the WC and Olympics in the history books. The world only cares about track during those events. WRs are also amazing, but they get taken down over time. Jakob is the ultimate Diamond League king I'll give him that, but that just means he's the best when there are pacers and lights to follow. Kerr can trash talk all he wants until someone takes him down when it counts.
Jakob has taken Josh down a lot of times when it counted, f.ex OG 2021 and WC 2022. In 2023 WC Kerr won against an obviously sick Jakob (who clearly underperformed for no other reason) -declaring himself the best in the world that season (when WA with good reasons only ranked him as third) seems a little desperate…
After the indoor season and Prefontaine 2024 Josh obviously was the best in the world, and could legitimately call him self that. But again a little needy -he knows Jakob is reduced because of the injury background, and he knows this guy who has a 2 sec better pb than himself is in huge and rapid progress. -Why not let his own good results speak for them selves, and not repeating something that very soon might be regarded as false..?
3:27 solo from Jakob is basically not happening. He hasn't ever done that and won't be doing it after rounds in the heat.
As you very well know he was close at doing that in Silesia 2023 (3.27.14) since he got very little draft from the pacers (although he had an advantage because of them through the first bend).
I don’t think his 3.26.73 with good pacing is good enough for a 3.27 solo. But I also expect Jakob to improve these last couple of weeks, so who knows…
Lolz you didn't get it. My point is Jakob ain't running a 3:27 solo in the final. Give Kerr the respect he has earned. He is the reigning outdoor world champ, a WR holder and reigning indoor world champ, and beat Jakob again not long ago. I expect him to run down Jakob again in the final.
Brave of Kerr to run the indoor WC when it was held so far off course all the way out in Glasgow, Scotland, casually appearing on the start lists just after Jakob confirmed he wasn't running.
He was 100% intending to sit out a world championship in his own back yard to avoid a defeat.
January 12: Jakob announces he's skipping indoors because of injury problems. Feb 19: Kerr announces he's actually running indoors starting 11 days later. How generous of the world champion to let his national athletics federation have a whole week of marketing.
To be fair, Kerr has raced more in 2024, he made the effort so give him some props. as to all the trash talking i believe it was Jakob who started it first. Jakob had emotional issues losing the budapest race he was dealing with. Couldn't handle it like man and resorted to throwing dumb shots are Kerr calling him 'next guy'.
Kerr seemed to take offence of The next guy remark, (that clearly wasn’t meant offensive) because Kerr considered himself more than just a next guy: He considered himself the best in the world… But I don’t think Jakob at all gave it a thought (I certainly didn’t) if a guy who narrowly beat him (in a time 2 +sec slower than the Norwegian probably thought he himself could solo) because he was sick, could or could not be the best in the world. -A guy who was 10th in a DL race, and third in his best one (behind a steeplechaser), and hadn’t even pb’ed the last two years, and was ranked behind an American (even after the WC win) with no medal merits, and who had a pb 10 guys were very near the current year…