here are two 29 year old athletes' progressions. one is considered a hard-working farm girl that can do no wrong, the other is non-binary thus must be cheating: Year - FarmGirl's Time - Non-Binary Time 2015 - 4:18 - 4:16 2016 - 4:33 - 4:20 2017 - 4:12 - 4:10 2018 - 4:07 - 4:09 2019 - 4:02 - 4:01 2020 - 4:00 - 4:07 2021 - 3:58 - 4:02 2022 - 3:59 - 4:04 2023 - NT - 3:59 2024 - 3:55 - 3:55
I would have to say Elle and Nikki have had a very parallel progression/development.
If you can't see how these two progressions are different, then I can't help you. Yes, they basically started at the same point leaving college and are now at the same point at 29.
Here's the difference:
One athlete has run 14/27 of her 1,500s faster than 4:05 and has run one 1,500 slower than 4:10 since 2019 (2021 Olympic Trials 1st round heat) and is a model of consistency and incremental improvement.
The other athlete ran only 5/30 1,500s faster than 4:05 from 2019-2022 with 9 1,500s slower than 4:10 but suddenly has run 11/18 1,500s faster than 4:05 in 2023-2024 with only 3 1,500s slower than 4:10.
imagine that, the left-leaning athlete showed less consistency during the seasons effected by covid hysteria than the right-leaning athlete
either way, you're changing the goal-posts: you said it would be "one thing if there was gradual improvement year-over-year" to which i showed that Nikki has had just that.
further, i think you are massively discounting the fact Elle just served up one of the greatest rabbit performances of all-time: the top 8 women in that 1500 ALL got PBs!
here is how much they improved by Place - Name - Improvement over previous PB
1. Hiltz - 4.28 2. Mackay - 3.86 (only two sub-4s b4 this 3:55.90 were a 3:59.99 & 3:59.76) 3. St. Pierre - .01 (not bad for a rabbit) 4. Johnson - 2.10 5. McGee - 2.90 6. Cranny - 1.01 7. Maclean - .45 8. Schlachtenhaufen - 1.38
By just about every metric this race was a massive outlier and it wouldn't be surprising if those end up being lifetime bests for 6-7 if not all of them. St. Pierre playing rabbit taking them through at a steady clip for 1300m on pace for 3:55 is something that essentially never happens as any woman strong enough to do that is going to be competing for the win, not rabbiting.
Back to the general policy issues at hand, WADA’s " TUE Guidelines - Transgender – Version 2.1 – October 2023" say a TUE for testosterone ca be granted to female athletes for gender identity reasons.
this medical information is to define the criteria for granting a Therapeutic Use Exemption (TUE) for the treatment with substances on the Prohibited List to transgender athletes.
The WADA guidelines use the term “transgender” to mean any and all
gender identities that are not stereotypically associated with a person’s recorded sex at birth.
WADA uses “transgender males” as a broad term to cover all females who take medications and other steps to masculinize their bodies. It doesn’t solely mean female athletes who “identify as” men.
For transgender and gender diverse people, multiple terms have been/are used. For the purpose of this document, the terms transgender male and transgender female athletes are used. Individuals who were recorded female sex at birth who masculinize their bodies are typically referenced as transgender males.
Other individuals may have identities outside the binary gender system, but for the purposes of this document, the term transgender will be used.
In females seeking to masculinize their bodies for gender identity reasons, the standard medication regimens
follow the general principle of hormone replacement treatment of male hypogonadism. The exact dosage and frequency are to be determined by the prescribing endocrinologist utilizing standard dosage regimens.
In both transgender male and transgender female athletes, therapy is principally aimed at achieving hormone levels within the normal range of the experienced gender.
The cross-sex hormone (=gender affirming hormone) administered to transgender male athletes is testosterone which is [usually] prohibited. Testosterone, various testosterone esters including long-acting or oral testosterone undecanoate, testosterone cypionate, enanthate, or mixed testosterone esters might be used depending on the medical indication as well as local and individual logistics.
The current WADA transgender TUE guidelines I linked to in my previous post say that getting a TUE and being declared eligible to compete in a particular category or event are entirely separate matters.
It is not the purpose of this medical information to define the criteria for the eligibility of these athletes to participate in competitive sport, which is entirely left to the different sporting federations and organizations.
However, the WADA guidelines also say athletes seeking a TUE for gender identity reasons must already have settled the eligibility issue with relevant sports authorities before they apply for a TUE.
Transgender athletes may be granted a TUE only once their eligibility and gender has been established with their sport federation. The respective criteria and characteristics of eligibility defined by their sport need to be documented in the TUE application.
In both transgender male and transgender female athletes, therapy is principally aimed at achieving testosterone levels within the normal range associated with the [athletes’] gender identity.
Since testosterone is the critical factor influencing performance in sports, it is important that the criteria for the granting of a TUE ensure that both transgender male and transgender female athletes have physiological androgen exposure within the ranges of the non-transgender male and non-transgender female athletes with whom they compete.
Yes, I get tired of them. Rank speculation and couch potatoes trying to convince folks that they actually know something. Hiltz is who Hiltz is. Why is it so hard to accept the fact that the woman who won a state high school title as a biological girl won a fast OT race as a biological woman? I don't care about the pronouns; they are no different imho than a Robert who is called Robert or Bob or Rob or Bobbie or Bobby or Robby or Robbie. Not really reflective of the person. But Hiltz' victories and non-victories? Those are real.
Hiltz has been a decent competitor for years. Was not aware of any "verge of crashing." Top athletes go thru phases, professionally and personally. Hiltz is no different. We only see the races. btw, Hiltz has been competitive for several years. Not as if a Top 10 suddenly popped out. Tracked the leader and then out-kicked folks in the home stretch. Unless that is something new, not seeing the big deal. btw, Priscilla Welch did not become a known quantity until she was over 40.
Hiltz has been a champ since she competed as a biological girl in high school. Has faced some off-the-track challenges of which nearly all of us are unfamiliar.
Some even knock off 6 seconds over 1500 in 5 years as they approach 30.
Oh hells bells! How dare someone get better at a distance event as they approach 30! Gosh darn there ought to be a law against the almost 30 posting an outstanding performance. (looks at ages of athletes during past 10 Olympiads. oops!)
And as I stated: Testosterone supplementation is not legal for anyone competing in the women's category under any circumstances and is only allowed under limited circumstances for those competing in the men's category. Even a man with hypogonadism because of chronic illness (functional hypogonadism) doesn't qualify for a TUE for testosterone.
Yes, they might be able to take supplements that screw around with the various enzymes involved in hormone metabolism but those supplements would also have to not be on the banned list. If they can find legal supplements that do this then good luck to them.
Prescription drugs that are used to lower estrogen levels are also banned.
There's no way Hiltz has started a medal transition involving taking drugs that alter their hormonal makeup while still being allowed to compete in the women's category.
Are you 100% sure about the part of your post I bolded?
Medroxyprogesterone acetate (MPA) - and depot medroxyprogesterone acetate (DMPA), the injection-form known widely by the brand name Depo Provera - are prescription drugs widely used in female patients to shut off ovarian function and lower natural estrogen levels. But I don't see them on the WADA list of banned substances.
In 2021, MPA ranked 238th amongst the most frequently prescribed medications in the United States, with nearly 1.7 million prescriptions.
DMPA is used as a form of birth control by millions of women around the world, particularly women who are poor and with lower levels of educaiton.
I admit that looking at the WADA list makes me bleary-eyed, so it may be that I've missed MPA and DMPA even when they've been smack in front of my face.
If you or anyone else has seen MPA and/or DMPA on the WADA list, please point me to exactly where.
Following up on the issue of whether drugs that reduce estrogen really are banned like the other poster said:
Another group of prescription drugs that are used to lower estrogen in females which are definitely not banned for female athletes are GnRH agonist and analog drugs, aka GnRHa drugs, such as luprelin (brand name Lupron).
GnRHa drugs dramatically lower estrogen levels in girls and women by inhibiting the hypothalamus from making gonadotrophin-releasing hormone (GnRH). This stops the pituitary from releasing LH and FSH, which prevents the ovaries in females and the testes in males from making sex hormones and gametes. If given to kids who haven't been through puberty yet, these drugs will delay or completely prevent the ovaries or testes from developing to maturity in the first place.
GnRHa drugs were originally devised as a treatment for late-stage prostate cancer; they were approved by the FDA and other similar agencies for prostate cancer in the mid-late 1980s. Later on, GnRHa drugs were approved as a treatment for central precocious puberty in little kids and certain serious gynecological conditions in women.
In recent years, GnRHa drugs have been in the press a lot because of their controversial off-label use as so-called “puberty blockers” in physically healthy kids with gender/sex distress.
Though GnRHa drugs ulimately shut down gonadal function and thus production of sex hormones by the ovaries and testes, when they are administered to people who’ve been through puberty already, these drugs initially stimulate the gonads and thus lead to a temporary surge in gonadal sex hormones. Because of this, the WADA list of prohibited substances Section S2.2 classifies GnRHa drugs as "testosterone-stimulating peptides" and specifies that they're banned in males:
S2.2.1 Testosterone-stimulating peptides in males including, but not limited to: • chorionic gonadotrophin (CG), • luteinizing hormone (LH), • gonadotrophin- releasing hormone (GnRH, gonadorelin) and its agonist analogues (e.g. buserelin, deslorelin, goserelin, histrelin, leuprorelin, nafarelin and triptorelin)
WADA’s “TUE Physician Guidelines – Transgender - Version 1.0 – Version 2.1 – October 2023” says on page 3:
Gonadotropin-Releasing Hormone (GnRH) analogues…are currently prohibited in male athletes due to their initial stimulation effect on testosterone.
But they're not prohibited in female athletes.
This post was edited 2 minutes after it was posted.
The current WADA transgender TUE guidelines I linked to in my previous post say that getting a TUE and being declared eligible to compete in a particular category or event are entirely separate matters.
It is not the purpose of this medical information to define the criteria for the eligibility of these athletes to participate in competitive sport, which is entirely left to the different sporting federations and organizations.
However, the WADA guidelines also say athletes seeking a TUE for gender identity reasons must already have settled the eligibility issue with relevant sports authorities before they apply for a TUE.
Transgender athletes may be granted a TUE only once their eligibility and gender has been established with their sport federation. The respective criteria and characteristics of eligibility defined by their sport need to be documented in the TUE application.
In both transgender male and transgender female athletes, therapy is principally aimed at achieving testosterone levels within the normal range associated with the [athletes’] gender identity.
Since testosterone is the critical factor influencing performance in sports, it is important that the criteria for the granting of a TUE ensure that both transgender male and transgender female athletes have physiological androgen exposure within the ranges of the non-transgender male and non-transgender female athletes with whom they compete.
thanks for bringing some facts to the discussion, though it does raise more questions
it sounds like if an athlete such as Hiltz wanted to take testosterone she could theoretically do so if USATF approved it
the mere fact this is a possibility brings at least some doubt as to whether Nikki is using testosterone or not, which is a shame
given it can bring athletes like Nikki's performances into question, i think USATF should publish on their website anyone born female that has this TUE
to be sure, a woman taking the amount of testosterone a typical male has is going to experience some dramatic physical changes. the pics of Chris Moser in this thread ought to make that clear, though the east german throwers that ended up transitioning to men out of necessity are another example. while she has gotten a little bit leaner over the years, it's nothing like one would expect if her test was suddenly 10x higher than before and her voice would have changed for sure
I thought this thread was about "male hormones" (see subject line), not "synthetic" hormones. The OP excluded testosterone. Some male homones are not banned (e.g. TSH and FSH), and some are (LH).
Here I considered only those "male hormones" permitted "under a legal limit" (see subject line) simply as being legal.
Which part of that is "incorrect"? Thanks in advance.
I just want to point out that purposely misgendering someone is like using the n-word and makes someone sound incredible ignorant and poorly educated.
You know the crazy grandma/grandpa that insists on still using the n-word and it makes everyone roll their eyes at the dinner table, well it sounds exactly that like when someone purposely misgenders.
It's not hard, just don't do it. Use their name if you can't be bothered with an ounce of effort of respect to use proper pronouns.
Nikki could easily have high natural testosterone production and by "high" I mean just a couple percent higher than peers, doesn't have to be radical. The adrenal glands also produce testosterone so that can be a variable, the more active someone is, the more their adrenal glands produce hormones. And even for example if two people both had the same 2-3nmol of testosterone naturally, then there is the genetic factors of testosterone receptor density, ACTN3 etc. etc.
Go look at sprinters in the NCAA and compare them to 1500m elite body type, natural genetics varies massively, but everyone already knows this, people just want to gossip.
Hiltz has been a decent competitor for years. Was not aware of any "verge of crashing." Top athletes go thru phases, professionally and personally. Hiltz is no different. We only see the races. btw, Hiltz has been competitive for several years. Not as if a Top 10 suddenly popped out. Tracked the leader and then out-kicked folks in the home stretch. Unless that is something new, not seeing the big deal. btw, Priscilla Welch did not become a known quantity until she was over 40.
A "decent competitor" with a 4:01 pb in her mid twenties is nothing like an American champion and near record-holder - with an explosive finish - of 3:55 at 29, and in what would normally be her twilight years. If she had been 24 in that race she likely would have been last. Think on that.
This post was edited 1 minute after it was posted.
Some even knock off 6 seconds over 1500 in 5 years as they approach 30.
Oh hells bells! How dare someone get better at a distance event as they approach 30! Gosh darn there ought to be a law against the almost 30 posting an outstanding performance. (looks at ages of athletes during past 10 Olympiads. oops!)
No one says there should be a law against it. But to anyone who knows the role drugs play in the sport an "outstanding performance" is often their effect. That could well be an improvement from 4:01 at 24 to 3:55 at nearly 30.
here are two 29 year old athletes' progressions. one is considered a hard-working farm girl that can do no wrong, the other is non-binary thus must be cheating: Year - FarmGirl's Time - Non-Binary Time 2015 - 4:18 - 4:16 2016 - 4:33 - 4:20 2017 - 4:12 - 4:10 2018 - 4:07 - 4:09 2019 - 4:02 - 4:01 2020 - 4:00 - 4:07 2021 - 3:58 - 4:02 2022 - 3:59 - 4:04 2023 - NT - 3:59 2024 - 3:55 - 3:55
I would have to say Elle and Nikki have had a very parallel progression/development.
Great post. Of course, merely looking at times doesn’t tell the whole story. We also need to look at context and race placings. Consider:
2017: Nikki finished 2nd in the NCAA championships, losing by just 0.02.
2018: Nikki again finished 2nd in the NCAA championships, just behind Jessica Hull. Look at who Nikki beat in that race: Elise Cranny and Elle Purrier. Note: This race came just a few weeks after Nikki missed time due to a significant knee injury that required a bone marrow transplant.
2019: Nikki finished 3rd at the US championships (behind Shelby Houlihan and Jenny Simpson) and then was a finalist at the world championships.
Nikki demonstrated tremendous ability during the 2017-2019 timeframe. Two-time NCAA runner-up, better than Elle in college, and a world championship finalist in Doha in Nikki’s first full year as a pro.
Then what happened?
2020: Didn’t run outdoors or race the 1500 at all due to the pandemic. Only ran 3 indoor races: two 1-mile races and a 3,000
2021: This was the season Nikki came out as non-binary. Had a lot going on personally, and struggled to get back to their 2019 form. Didn’t do well managing the pressure of an Olympic year. Claimed to be up until 4:00 am coughing the night before the US championship final
2022: Moved to Flagstaff shortly before the start of the outdoor season. Had difficulty with the adjustment to altitude.
So, after a promising start to their pro career in 2019, Nikki stagnated and struggled the following 3 years for various reasons. That’s understandable. Progress isn’t always linear, and athletes are humans, not robots.
Last year and this year, we’ve seen Nikki realizing the potential they demonstrated from 2017 to 2019.
I grew up with gender dysphoria and my suspicions is not out of bigotry. I thought they just looked more boyish than usual almost like Galen Rupp and I think it is ok to have some level of suspicion for someone to run a 3:55. All great performances should welcome some level of suspicion.
The mass doping is strong with the americans. Thered be no track and field there,if they all got caught.