How does Jakob break the WR in the 1500m...

True, but that's not very vulnerable. Could things break wrong for him again? Sure they could. But that wouldn't be the way to bet, any more than betting against John Walker in Montreal would have been the way to go.

Nothing was wrong, most recent World Championship 1500m final. Most recent W.C. 1500m final was not a glorified TT with paid pacers through 900m with a selected group of runners.

Sans Africans, 1976 Summer Olympics.

Well if that’s the case it would be a shame because he needs to believe he has a good shot for him to really go after it - which is great for the sport (again, it’s been a long time since I’ve seen Bislett packed like that, it was fantastic to see.)

I don’t know if it will be before Budapest, but my guess would be that we will see one more big effort from him this season where I think we see a slight adjustment to the pace in the first 800 (1.50.5 v 1.51.5). I can understand yesterday why in front of his home crowd and having the weight of expectation after the 2 mile, that he wanted to test the waters a little more and be perhaps a little more conservative before jumping into a split close to 1.50 which is uncharted territory for him.

So like a lot of people I landed on Jakob being a low 3.27 guy end of his career, but after watching this yesterday I am convinced he will at least run under 3.27. I can’t see a world where if he stays healthy he can’t find a second there as presumably he evolves and gets even stronger. WR still well on the lower end of optimism but I do wonder if he gets into the 26’s if that sentiment changes - even with him.

Oh and yea, I think there will also be a tilt at a fast 5000 too where I think we could see a time in the 12.45.0 range.

Faster than that for sure. If he goes for a fast 5000, he'll definitely be under 12:40. I agree with you that sub-3:26 is somewhat unlikely for him, but a 5000 WR is more probable.

I think we should be a bit careful with what Jakob says to interviewers. He doesn´t want to promise to much.

I am quite sure he believes he (also) can beat the 1500m WR. And I am also quite sure he will try to run faster in the 2 next DL 1500m he is running (Lausanne and Silesia).

He said to Norwegian Media after Oslo that he has more to come with.

i think if he breaks it,itll be a surprise,even to him.itll probably happen when he doesnt expect it to.

As a Norwegian I should like your positive remark about “the other Norwegian kid”… But there’s a problem: This Norwegian went from pb 3.36.2 to 3.29.4 -close to Katir’s well known development from 3.36 to 3.28 high. And this “kid” (Narve Gilje Nordås) didn’t even have an optimal race (lost time at the start, midway and in the finish due to inexperience), and got half a season left for improvement… So my question is of course this: You are calling Katir a doper mainly because of his progression; do you call Narve a doper too? If not maybe you should consider an apology to Katir? And if you call both dopers you should apologise to both because these kind of statistic analysis is not the way to reveal doping…!

You just turned a bad analysis even worse though.

This is in response to the other guy - I don’t see it’s posts anymore. Sorry had limited time in the last 36 hours to talk Nordas. I don’t need to apologize to anyone - his run changes absolutely nothing with respect to Katir and their circumstances are completely different. Now, is it an eye opening performance - it is. Is it worthy of some skepticism? Yes. But I need to look at his career progression and other events before coming to an opinion. You French twat.

Interesting….I’d give him a much greater chance of going under 12:40 this year than under 3:27. You think otherwise? I’m not really factoring in what actual meets are available to him for either attempt, more like what he’s capable of now in terms of his physiology.

So you ended with something with this long thread and your quest for the new savior (with body tattoos) of middle and "clean" distances, against the evil dopers?

I just have. Do you think the best athletes in those sports will be clean? WADA puts T and F in the same category. Clue: drugs are performance enhancing. Second clue: as only 1% of tests return a positive but confidential athlete surveys show around 50% or even higher are doping most dopers are never caught. 3rd clue: obviously doped records are now being beaten.

Yeah that's totally fair and could well happen - my logic would be down to a couple of things

1) Historically we don't see much more than 1-2 super quick (sub 12.48) 5000m races a season which means we probably have one left if we are lucky. 3 DL meets have a 3000/5000m left - Lausanne, Monaco and Zurich, surely one of these will be a 3000 and he will be running a 1500 in at least one of them. So he maybe has one shot unless he runs a permit meeting 5000m but these rarely go sub 12.50 (not sure if one ever has).

2) So let's say he will have one legit 5000m tilt this season, we have just seen him be pretty cautious chasing a 1500m PR so I find it highly unlikely he asks for the pace to be sub 12.40 considering his PR is currently 12.48. I think it's more likely we see 12.46 pace with him ramping up the last 600m and running 12.43/44 which of course is awesome but not sub 12.40.

And you know, we should also be aware that while he's the world champ, he's not super experienced in chasing a time/running super fast 5000's yet and more often than not times almost always come with experience. They did for all the greats - Geb, Bekele, Komen and even Kejelcha. Yeah a few exceptions - Cheptegei, but, ahem, he hasn't broken 12.50 since. It's different for him in the 1500 because he is experienced in fast races (he's run under 3.29 3 times which is 2 times more than El G did before he broke the WR).

A split close to 1:50 is "uncharted territory" because it's likely too close to his limits over the 800, unless he's capable of sub-1:45. There are no signs he is. I doubt he could run close to 1:50 and hold on for another 700m. I think he would blow at that speed.

If we are to believe what he has been sayi ng in interviews, he won’t be doing any 5000 meters before Budapest. Winning the WC is his main focus.
But he also said after Bislett that he played it a little bit safe. He has also said that whatever he runs at Bislett, he can run faster other places with faster tracks.
I’ve also read that he hopes to run «really fast» in Lausanne and Silesia.

Man; now you have to apologise to a whole country, cause I’m not French (told you I’m Norwegian). -I just borrowed some words from an ingenious French phrase as my user name…

You are saying you don’t address me but you clearly do. And that’s a good thing cause now I got you to say that there isn’t Katir’s progression you base your doping accusations on, but “other things”. Well you changed your narrative and that’s a good thing, because it was soft. But that leaves you with far less substance than you originally thought…

You are calling me stupid, and I can live well with that. But I myself hesitate to call you something in return -I read another post from you in another thread, and that was quite good, insightful and interesting. The same with other posters I think got a lot of cracks in their reasoning -find a different thread and topic and their posts are of far better quality…

I will not block you. “French twat”, “bad English skills”, “somewhat retardant” -I’m not impressed! And if I block you I will miss posts like the good one you made about Jakob’s 800m speed versus his 1500m ability. And I am also eager to read your conclusions regarding Narve Gilje Nordås (doping or not), and what kind of other circumstances around Katir you choose to front as doping proofs (in stead of his “progression”)….

It’s also interesting to see if you will stay pretty much in the same camp as Coevett (Ingebrigtsen clean / Africans doped) as for now, or transform over to Armstronglivs’s (All elite athletes being doped). The latter will of course solve some of your problems regarding similar statistics for some African born athletes and Norwegians, but of course raise all this other illogical stuff that Armstronglivs has to use and defend…

And this would make sense right? (The playing it "safe"). He's still human after all and probably has some natural fears about blasting through 800m in under 1.50 when his comfort zone is 1.51.5-1.52.0 at the moment. Everything I have is just a guess but I think it would be super logical to see him test out something between 1.50.0 and 1.50.5 through 800m and see how he handles that. And if he handles it close to how he did in Oslo we could then see him testing the 3.27.0 threshold. I don't think hypothesizing that as a possible measured approach is out of the realm of possibility.

The Self is Other, the self is another

- Arthur Rimbaud.

To your fast 5,000 comment, Ethiopias 10k team will impact. If a big name misses, going for broke could happen as they pick 5k team by time and there’re 12:41/12:46 on board with Aregawi/Barega and others chasing.