Early ny state xc predictions?

No speed ratings on this. Seems confirmed Warner is not doing XC though. Kahabka and Ferratella were very far back. Probably 130s-140s for them if he had rated it. Definitely need some improvement.

Based on what little we've seen so far... it's among Saratoga, Auburn, Fairport, and St. A's for the boys. Neither Corning nor MW have enough to be in the mix.

Any thoughts on Hunter College Campus schools?
In this race their 5k times were 15:36, 15:38, 16:26, 17:17, 17:26, 17:31, 17:57

Great 1-2... if they can get their back-end guys to close the gap a bit, they could be dangerous.

It would actually be silly to think that MW has a chance to make NXN this year.
They lost their 1-3 from last year and weren’t very deep.

They also didn't show any great improvement in track. At least Corning had a clear, solid top 4 develop during track. Just unfortunate for them that #5 hasn't materialized yet. Their 2014 team looked a lot like this coming in though (actually worse), and that team would've probably qualified this season. It will all come down to whether their top 4 can be as good as their 2-5 were last year, and whether their 5 can get within 30 seconds of their 4.

Personally I was not convinced by St. Anthony's at Trials of Miles, the times were good but the speed ratings were not. It seems like Saratoga are really the favorites this year, although Auburn has the talent to beat them. Fairport I simply will not believe it until I see it given their history.

To expand on this, the top two girls were Beres from Corning, with an overall rating of 99 last year (peak of 108 at McQuaid), and Baker from Elmira, who ran speed ratings from 94-98 for the last few races last season (started lower, but she was a freshman so I don't expect she would be any worse now). After converting to 5k, then applying to 4k times, there should be about a 60-point gap from 14:00 to 16:24 (girls' winning time). If Beres ran a 99 rating (should be very close to that), then the Corning boys would be 161, 160, 159, 151, 136. That's pretty bad, but it actually matches up pretty closely to St. Anthony's (just a drop-off at 5). I don't think this indicates Corning is a threat, but more that St. Anthony's does not look good either.

Actually, Monroe-Woodbury looks much better after their second race. 171, 167, 163, 159, 153 is a decent team for early September. Really just goes to show how volatile early ratings are. We won't really know anything for sure until Manhattan, and even then there are always some championship upsets (2017 is a good example).

Churchville-Chili at 166, 165, 162, 159, 153 also looked surprisingly good. They came in rated pretty far back but they smashed Rush-Henrietta and Pittsford Mendon. Fairport might actually have a challenge in Section 5.

Arlington were rated very high coming in but they looked even worse than Corning or St. Anthony's. Their 4-5 were 140 and 139. Green is good but I don't think they will be close to an NXN spot.

Still waiting on Saratoga and Auburn to open, they are entered at VVS so we should learn a lot about them there. I would hold off on any judgment for at least a month after that though. Still lots of racing to be done.

The good news about Monroe Woodbury is that they really only have 1 senior. They are in a rebuilding mode this year but next year they will have another shot at an NXN berth.

North Rockland and Corning will be tough next year though

Saratoga had their first race already. Boys team was missing Shaw (9:56 3200 / 16:16 5k in the summer), and appears that Pasek, who ran a 15:45 in the summer, didn’t have his best race here

Girls team was missing senior Hart, who scored for them at NXN last year

Saratoga summer results

Saratoga, Burnthills, Bethlehem dual

Boys-

Girls-

With the road 5k and this Saratoga now has 15:44(road), 15:54(xc), 16:08(road), 16:16(road), 16:19(xc), 16:42(xc),16:47(xc)

Appears that Bethlehem girls team 4-5 gap is large here but Pachter was missing. Look at the results for the Sep 5 race

Auburn is racing today

For teams, New York is already starting to look like a crap-shoot on the boys side. There are so many teams that can win or get top 2 at NXR. There isn’t a particular favorite right now.

Looks like Saratoga Springs is 8-deep on the boys side.

Curious about Belisle and Pritchard DNFs. If they are back in the mix then I presume Owen, Turner, & Berglund round out their varsity. If not this will be a very young team with 2 freshmen and 2 eighth graders.

Be interesting to track their progress through the season, as they try to get a couple of their youngsters up closer to their top 3.

In this race, Auburn had 4 under 16:37 for 3.1 miles, and their 5-7 were between 17:44 and 17:51.