Boston 2022 Cutoff Prediction Thread

I'm in a similar range with a 3:57 buffer. I used my same qualifying time for the 2021 race, and had the same "coming soon" message under Bib Number before the cutoff/rejection email back in April/May. It'll either stay "coming soon" or the entire 126th Boston Marathon line will go away once the cutoff is announced, which I'm convinced won't happen until at least November 30th.

My prediction is a higher cut off than actually is needed because I know of many people who refuse the vaccine that still registered in hopes the BAA will lift their mandate. Lots of people willing to gamble on that entry fee to actually not run it, resulting in higher cut off time. I predict lots of "accepted" runners to not show race weekend, where some squeaker qualifiers who are vaccinated will miss out.

firsttimebq wrote:

My prediction is a higher cut off than actually is needed because I know of many people who refuse the vaccine that still registered in hopes the BAA will lift their mandate. Lots of people willing to gamble on that entry fee to actually not run it, resulting in higher cut off time. I predict lots of "accepted" runners to not show race weekend, where some squeaker qualifiers who are vaccinated will miss out.

Anyone who thinks that BAA will lift the mandate is deluding himself. If anything, the question is whether the BAA will amend the mandate to require a booster. That would raise a difficult question, because many of us got the 2 shots and don't want more.

True, but they're giving people until Friday before Marathon Monday to get vaccinated, so the higher cut off or booster requirement (if there becomes one-- I don't personally foresee this), won't be something that can be altered. I think they'll have a 3-4 minute cut off, with a full field, but only get 25k qualified runners that actually end up participating due to being vaccinated. And those slots forfeited by those refusing the vaxx would have let those who miss the cut off in, meaning there could have potentially been a 0:00 cut off that won't get to happen. I find that frustrating.

firsttimebq wrote:

True, but they're giving people until Friday before Marathon Monday to get vaccinated, so the higher cut off or booster requirement (if there becomes one-- I don't personally foresee this), won't be something that can be altered. I think they'll have a 3-4 minute cut off, with a full field, but only get 25k qualified runners that actually end up participating due to being vaccinated. And those slots forfeited by those refusing the vaxx would have let those who miss the cut off in, meaning there could have potentially been a 0:00 cut off that won't get to happen. I find that frustrating.

You guys are outta your mind. Old, affluent people are running the race. They're vaccinated. To think a couple country goobers and gen Y are going to have an impact on how the race conducts itself is stupid.

I don't think the BAA will be impacted at all when it comes to how they conduct themselves. I do however know many many many people who said they registered even though they have said they will NOT get vaccinated. All I'm saying is that it's unfortunate that their times will have an impact on the cut off when they won't really be running or a factor. Like why apply if you aren't going to meet their vaccination requirement. That's all I'm saying.

boulderr bro wrote:

firsttimebq wrote:

True, but they're giving people until Friday before Marathon Monday to get vaccinated, so the higher cut off or booster requirement (if there becomes one-- I don't personally foresee this), won't be something that can be altered. I think they'll have a 3-4 minute cut off, with a full field, but only get 25k qualified runners that actually end up participating due to being vaccinated. And those slots forfeited by those refusing the vaxx would have let those who miss the cut off in, meaning there could have potentially been a 0:00 cut off that won't get to happen. I find that frustrating.

You guys are outta your mind. Old, affluent people are running the race. They're vaccinated. To think a couple country goobers and gen Y are going to have an impact on how the race conducts itself is stupid.

Exactly this. Since the race was already 93% vaccinated in 2021 I have no doubts they will have a pool of applicants for 100%.

They are save themselves the trouble announcing early by hoping the unvaxxed don't even apply.

On insta they just said the cutoff is 0:00 this year

Almost 24,000 applications, all accepted. So this is a Price is Right situation where BAA was very close to the limit without going over. Can't imagine this working out any better.

firsttimebq wrote:

True, but they're giving people until Friday before Marathon Monday to get vaccinated, so the higher cut off or booster requirement (if there becomes one-- I don't personally foresee this), won't be something that can be altered. I think they'll have a 3-4 minute cut off, with a full field, but only get 25k qualified runners that actually end up participating due to being vaccinated. And those slots forfeited by those refusing the vaxx would have let those who miss the cut off in, meaning there could have potentially been a 0:00 cut off that won't get to happen. I find that frustrating.

only 1400 of 20,000 in 2021 weren't vaccinated, and that was when there was an option. Why would you think 5000 non-vaccinated people are going to enter and get in now? Because of the race window and the lack of races in 2021, it's largely the same people applying.

firsttimebq wrote:

True, but they're giving people until Friday before Marathon Monday to get vaccinated, so the higher cut off or booster requirement (if there becomes one-- I don't personally foresee this), won't be something that can be altered. I think they'll have a 3-4 minute cut off, with a full field, but only get 25k qualified runners that actually end up participating due to being vaccinated. And those slots forfeited by those refusing the vaxx would have let those who miss the cut off in, meaning there could have potentially been a 0:00 cut off that won't get to happen. I find that frustrating.

Lol

Just got the email. No cutoff time.

Here is the exact text:

Dear athlete,

The Boston Athletic Association (B.A.A.) proudly announced today that all qualified athletes who submitted applications during the 2022 Boston Marathon registration window (November 8-12) will be accepted into the April 18th race, provided their qualifying time is verified. For the first time since 2013, the “cut-off” time is 0 minutes and 0 seconds.

“I am delighted to share that everyone who applied with a valid qualifying time will be joining us for the 126th Boston Marathon,” said Tom Grilk, President and CEO of the B.A.A. “It will be a historic return to Patriots’ Day and I am pleased to welcome this dedicated group of qualifiers back to the roads of Hopkinton to Boston on the third Monday in April for the first time in three years.”

Whoever was saying the reminder emails from BAA meant they were not getting as many applicants as they thought nailed it.

Wow, see us all there!

So 24,000 applicants and 6,000 charity/corporate? that's a lot of C&C: 20% ?!

I qualified (first-timer) on September 1, 2019, with, at the time, a -4:02 (now a -9:02).

I expected my time to get in this time around, but it's still nice to be official.

The best of all possible worlds. Enough vaccinated applicants to fill the race, all the applicants get in, unvaxxed can't complain that the race has a smaller field because they got excluded, and the world moves on, as we thought it would.

cyanide wrote:

Wow, see us all there!

So 24,000 applicants and 6,000 charity/corporate? that's a lot of C&C: 20% ?!

That's about what it's always been.

They claimed last year the charity number was 2600 consistently. I am unsure if that was the truth/spin.

Very excited to get in!

Looks like I'll be running my first Boston Marathon. Should be fun!