xczvzxcv wrote:
This shows why you need to get mask mandates, social distancing, and limits on indoor dining, etc. back. That's how the viral spread decreased even before you had the vaccine and that's necessary to do it again. Vaccination, plus masking, plus distancing, are all necessary to end this pandemic now.
Right.
It has worked so well so far.
Let's just wear masks, lockdown businesses, social distance, and take 3 -5 vaccines a year forever.
Yessiree Bob wrote:
[quote]The Unkle wrote:
[quote]dfgefaczs24w23 wrote:
[quote]Flagpole wrote:
[quote]DanM wrote:
One of your teenagers has no sense of smell after 4 months because that teenager has brain damage.
Possibly, and a lot of people are in the same boat as he is.
But sure, "its just a little flu." And "few young people die or get severely ill from Covid-19".
He had only minor other symptoms.
xczvzxcv wrote:
This shows why you need to get mask mandates, social distancing, and limits on indoor dining, etc. back. That's how the viral spread decreased even before you had the vaccine and that's necessary to do it again. Vaccination, plus masking, plus distancing, are all necessary to end this pandemic now.
Lol. The pandemic won’t end until more people are exposed (either through vax or natural), not fewer.
Flagpole wrote:
1) You are CORRECT that the vaccine is the best thing we have now.
2) You are WRONG to be concerned about long-term effects of the vaccines. Vaccines show negative results within 6 weeks, and these COVID vaccines, even the mRNA ones are no different, and there is no reason to believe they will be.
3) You are incorrect in your percentage of death. It is not that low...not even close. ALSO, there are serious issues for many people who then do not die. Death is not the only bad result of a COVID infection.
4) The politicization of the virus came PRIMARILY from the Trumpers. I do not accept that "both sides of the aisle" are responsible for the divide we have. Morons vs. non-morons. Morons are refusing to get vaccinated. Many of them have political reasons for doing so. Idiotic.
Summary - You were correct to get vaccinated, but your ideas on the whole subject are not based in fact.
In true Flagpole fashion, you pretend to be an expert on everything and speak condescendingly to everyone else. The truth is, blacks and Hispanics are more likely to be "vaccine hesitant" than white people. Blacks and Hispanics are also less likely to be "Trumpers" than white people. Are you going to go on the record as calling blacks and Hispanics "morons" for not getting the vaccine? If you believe people with different politics are inferior to you because they won't get the vaccine then you must believe the same about minorities who make the same decisions. There is a word for that...racist.
Also, PhD's are the educational level that is statistically most likely to be vaccine hesitant. I guess all of those people are morons, as well.
For the record, I can't stand Trump and never have but I have many friends of many different political persuasions who make decisions, like getting vaccinated or not, for all sorts of reasons, not just their politics.
Summary - You are an egotistical ass. You think you know everything but your ideas are not based in fact. They are based on your left-wing politics and contempt for everyone who is different from you.
Fat Boy wrote:
Flagpole wrote:
No he did not. He said the opposite. You're wrong.
He's not wrong. He's a liar. Let's call them like they are.
Well, since I don't know if he knows the truth or not (a requirement to be a liar), I don't know if he's a liar or not. He's definitely spewing a falsehood, and he's definitely wrong. He COULD be a liar too.
alpha wrote:
Jefe in the CO wrote:
Why is it always the pots (Flagpole) calling the kettles (everyone he doesn’t agree with) black (morons)?
Always the lowest functioning that resort to name calling when challenged. When name dropping and appeals to authority can't win an argument Flagpole immediately defaults to name calling. What a peach.
Nope. Trumplandia has made the morons come out of the woodwork. Stupid people used to know they were stupid. That has ended. The morons in the US have really damaged this country and are continuing to with this anti-vaxxer nonsense. It's time to call a heart a heart. Morons.
dfgefaczs24w23 wrote:
Yessiree Bob wrote:
[quote]The Unkle wrote:
[quote]dfgefaczs24w23 wrote:
[quote]Flagpole wrote:
[quote]DanM wrote:
One of your teenagers has no sense of smell after 4 months because that teenager has brain damage.
Possibly, and a lot of people are in the same boat as he is.
But sure, "its just a little flu." And "few young people die or get severely ill from Covid-19".
He had only minor other symptoms.
Yep. It is NOT to be minimalized.
xczvzxcv wrote:
Even boosters are not going to have that much effect mathematically with the delta variant, because it is so much more transmissible than alpha. The average patient would spread alpha to 3 people but delta to 6-8 people. So, you get an equation of the following to see what level of vaccination and effectiveness would be needed to contain it:
alpha Re=3x(1-.5x.95)=1.575. That's with current 50% vaccination rate and 95% effectiveness.
With 75% vaccination rate, the Re becomes 0.86, which is less than 1 and the virus goes away.
That all changes with delta.
delta Re=8x(1-.5x.85)=4.6. If pfizer and moderna are even less effective, that reproduction rate increases. Indeed, even with a 100% vaccination rate, you get an increase of the spread of the virus. The booster shot would not make much difference. You'd have to have basically 95% vaccination and 95% effectiveness to get the spread below 1 per covid infection, thus leading to the end of the pandemic.
Without that, you get the virus basically run through the population until you have herd immunity.
https://abc7chicago.com/coronavirus-vaccine-efficacy-against-delta-variant-covid-booster-shot-is-pfizer-effective/10949401/
Thanks for posting this. I'm curious if we can use Re to make some guesses about what the future will be. Here's my first impression. What do you think?
At current vaccination rates, the US will reach 60% by yearend. As delta variant cases increase, we might see 65% or 70%. Thus, we won't reach herd immunity and delta will continue to spread.
Masking and social distancing can "flatten the curve," but to what end? The vaccinated and unvaccinated will still keep getting delta and it will still keep spreading.
Meanwhile, only 16% are vaccinated worldwide and the WHO is tracking 17 variants besides delta right now. Even more new variants are certain to occur.
I don't see an end. Thoughts?
BigTex wrote:
Flagpole wrote:
1) You are CORRECT that the vaccine is the best thing we have now.
2) You are WRONG to be concerned about long-term effects of the vaccines. Vaccines show negative results within 6 weeks, and these COVID vaccines, even the mRNA ones are no different, and there is no reason to believe they will be.
3) You are incorrect in your percentage of death. It is not that low...not even close. ALSO, there are serious issues for many people who then do not die. Death is not the only bad result of a COVID infection.
4) The politicization of the virus came PRIMARILY from the Trumpers. I do not accept that "both sides of the aisle" are responsible for the divide we have. Morons vs. non-morons. Morons are refusing to get vaccinated. Many of them have political reasons for doing so. Idiotic.
Summary - You were correct to get vaccinated, but your ideas on the whole subject are not based in fact.
In true Flagpole fashion, you pretend to be an expert on everything and speak condescendingly to everyone else. The truth is, blacks and Hispanics are more likely to be "vaccine hesitant" than white people. Blacks and Hispanics are also less likely to be "Trumpers" than white people. Are you going to go on the record as calling blacks and Hispanics "morons" for not getting the vaccine? If you believe people with different politics are inferior to you because they won't get the vaccine then you must believe the same about minorities who make the same decisions. There is a word for that...racist.
Also, PhD's are the educational level that is statistically most likely to be vaccine hesitant. I guess all of those people are morons, as well.
For the record, I can't stand Trump and never have but I have many friends of many different political persuasions who make decisions, like getting vaccinated or not, for all sorts of reasons, not just their politics.
Summary - You are an egotistical ass. You think you know everything but your ideas are not based in fact. They are based on your left-wing politics and contempt for everyone who is different from you.
1) I am knowledgeable about things I speak about. I do not post on all topics here...in fact, I post on a very small minority of them.
2) Despite the fact that there are a lot of Democrats who are anti-vaxxers, that does not change the fact that anti-vaxxers are morons. I have never said that all Democrats are smart. There are morons in all Parties, all walks of life.
3) You are wrong about Trumpers though. Trumpers politicized the virus...Trump, Fox News and other like "news".
4) I do not call groups of people based on things they can not change, ANYTHING. Not sure why this is hard for you to understand (well, you are a moron, so my bad), but stupid is as stupid does. Morons are defined by their behavior, not their skin color. Higher order thinking is not your thing.
5) Not getting the vaccine is not a political decision. It is a moronic decision. There is no political party in the United States with a plank that says "don't get vaccinated for COVID".
6) My opinions are absolutely based in fact. I am extremely fact-oriented. You don't know what you're talking about.
7) I reject your Ph.D. comment. BUT, again, stupid is as stupid does. It is MORONIC at this point to not get vaccinated if you are eligible to do so.
8) I suggest you don't flap your gums at me again lest you want me to own you again.
fisky wrote:
xczvzxcv wrote:
Even boosters are not going to have that much effect mathematically with the delta variant, because it is so much more transmissible than alpha. The average patient would spread alpha to 3 people but delta to 6-8 people. So, you get an equation of the following to see what level of vaccination and effectiveness would be needed to contain it:
alpha Re=3x(1-.5x.95)=1.575. That's with current 50% vaccination rate and 95% effectiveness.
With 75% vaccination rate, the Re becomes 0.86, which is less than 1 and the virus goes away.
That all changes with delta.
delta Re=8x(1-.5x.85)=4.6. If pfizer and moderna are even less effective, that reproduction rate increases. Indeed, even with a 100% vaccination rate, you get an increase of the spread of the virus. The booster shot would not make much difference. You'd have to have basically 95% vaccination and 95% effectiveness to get the spread below 1 per covid infection, thus leading to the end of the pandemic.
Without that, you get the virus basically run through the population until you have herd immunity.
https://abc7chicago.com/coronavirus-vaccine-efficacy-against-delta-variant-covid-booster-shot-is-pfizer-effective/10949401/Thanks for posting this. I'm curious if we can use Re to make some guesses about what the future will be. Here's my first impression. What do you think?
At current vaccination rates, the US will reach 60% by yearend. As delta variant cases increase, we might see 65% or 70%. Thus, we won't reach herd immunity and delta will continue to spread.
Masking and social distancing can "flatten the curve," but to what end? The vaccinated and unvaccinated will still keep getting delta and it will still keep spreading.
Meanwhile, only 16% are vaccinated worldwide and the WHO is tracking 17 variants besides delta right now. Even more new variants are certain to occur.
I don't see an end. Thoughts?
So, I assume you agree with this bit at the very end?:
"Even if we can't get rid of the virus entirely, the vaccines can help get rid of the "disease" in the form of worst outcomes. She says the math shows that the end game is vaccinate, vaccinate, vaccinate."
I agree with that!
fisky wrote:
I don't see an end. Thoughts?
At this point the only “end” that makes any kind of sense is accepting the reality that we can’t mask and distance our way out of this. People should get vaxxed, but EVERYONE will eventually get Covid. There’s no way around it.
I can see waiting until a child vaccine is approved to totally throw up the white flag, but eventually we have to accept that Covid can’t be stopped and won’t be eradicated. It’ll be endemic and a minor inconvenience to most people for the rest of time.
runner dad guy wrote:
fisky wrote:
I don't see an end. Thoughts?
At this point the only “end” that makes any kind of sense is accepting the reality that we can’t mask and distance our way out of this. People should get vaxxed, but EVERYONE will eventually get Covid. There’s no way around it.
I can see waiting until a child vaccine is approved to totally throw up the white flag, but eventually we have to accept that Covid can’t be stopped and won’t be eradicated. It’ll be endemic and a minor inconvenience to most people for the rest of time.
It is not inevitable that everyone will get COVID. That is simply not true.
Flagpole wrote:
fisky wrote:
Thanks for posting this. I'm curious if we can use Re to make some guesses about what the future will be. Here's my first impression. What do you think?
At current vaccination rates, the US will reach 60% by yearend. As delta variant cases increase, we might see 65% or 70%. Thus, we won't reach herd immunity and delta will continue to spread.
Masking and social distancing can "flatten the curve," but to what end? The vaccinated and unvaccinated will still keep getting delta and it will still keep spreading.
Meanwhile, only 16% are vaccinated worldwide and the WHO is tracking 17 variants besides delta right now. Even more new variants are certain to occur.
I don't see an end. Thoughts?
So, I assume you agree with this bit at the very end?:
"Even if we can't get rid of the virus entirely, the vaccines can help get rid of the "disease" in the form of worst outcomes. She says the math shows that the end game is vaccinate, vaccinate, vaccinate."
I agree with that!
That's currently not a realistic scenario AND it's extremely unlikely to happen so I think the end game will be something else.
We're not going to reach 90% vaxx rate unless this mutates into something more like Ebola with a 30% fatality rate or unless the government takes draconian measures, like stopping welfare payments unless recipients take the jab, banning interstate travel, and nationalizing Pfizer/Moderna and taking their patents on the vaccine so the entire world can make it. Politicians... Dems and Republicans... don't have the guts to do that. The sad truth is that both parties care more about being reelected than about people dying.
And a 100% vaxx rate doesn't stop COVID. The vaccinated still get COVID and it still can mutate. The best outcome I can see is that COVID mutates into something highly infectious but extremely mild. The entire world gets it and gets immunity. The worst case is that it evolves into something vaccine resistant and deadly.
Getting back to her point that the end game is vaccinations, I agree that it's the most realistic way to prevent COVID. However, that comes with the a priori assumption that the vaccine will have no long-term effects. That is simply an educated guess at this point. mRNA vaccines show great promise. Maybe they will have no long-term effects.
It comes down to trusting the guess of experts who extrapolate short-term safety into long-term safety.
As an aside, we're told to trust the science when the scientific method says, "Research. Form hypothesis. Test. Observe. etc" We haven't observed long-term results because only 36 subjects have had the Pfizer vaccine for over a year as of this date.
You trust the vaccines. Fine. I hope they are safe. If they prove to be after waiting and observing the results, I'll get the vaccine, too.
Curiously, and I mean that as an observation... not sarcasm, the current vaccination rate is roughly what the best flu vax rates have been in the past. I'm surprised that it has gotten as high as it has.
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Fauci said that the best protection against infection from future strains of Covid is to first be infected and then get 1 dose of the vaccine. For that reason. I have been trying to get myself and children infected but we have been unsuccessful. As soon as we are infected, we will get our vaccine.
Flagpole wrote:
It is not inevitable that everyone will get COVID. That is simply not true.
Maybe you can avoid it if you plan to die of other causes within the next few months.
Otherwise, it’s now mathematically impossible to attain herd immunity and breakthrough infections are proving to be common, so explain to me how you plan to avoid getting an widespread, highly transmissible endemic virus for the next few decades of your life.
Accept it: you and everyone you know will get Covid (and, if you’re vaxxed, almost certainly live to tell the tale).
runner dad guy wrote:
Flagpole wrote:
It is not inevitable that everyone will get COVID. That is simply not true.
Maybe you can avoid it if you plan to die of other causes within the next few months.
Otherwise, it’s now mathematically impossible to attain herd immunity and breakthrough infections are proving to be common, so explain to me how you plan to avoid getting an widespread, highly transmissible endemic virus for the next few decades of your life.
Accept it: you and everyone you know will get Covid (and, if you’re vaxxed, almost certainly live to tell the tale).
And if you're not vaxxed you will " almost certainly live to tell the tale". And don't have to worry about what the vax did to you
runner dad guy wrote:
Flagpole wrote:
It is not inevitable that everyone will get COVID. That is simply not true.
Maybe you can avoid it if you plan to die of other causes within the next few months.
Otherwise, it’s now mathematically impossible to attain herd immunity and breakthrough infections are proving to be common, so explain to me how you plan to avoid getting an widespread, highly transmissible endemic virus for the next few decades of your life.
Accept it: you and everyone you know will get Covid (and, if you’re vaxxed, almost certainly live to tell the tale).
This guy gets it. Level headed, realistic, not afraid of the virus OR the jab. It’s like I’m looking in a mirror. Quick someone do an IP address check to be sure we’re not the same person.
And while that’s being checked, still waiting on actual data that proves Delta is more dangerous to 12 and under than the flu.
Flagpole wrote:
alpha wrote:
Always the lowest functioning that resort to name calling when challenged. When name dropping and appeals to authority can't win an argument Flagpole immediately defaults to name calling. What a peach.
Nope. Trumplandia has made the morons come out of the woodwork. Stupid people used to know they were stupid. That has ended. The morons in the US have really damaged this country and are continuing to with this anti-vaxxer nonsense. It's time to call a heart a heart. Morons.
And you're a prime example of this. You really have no idea where you stand, you're just following a simplistic narrative.
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