Official 2021 D3 XC Thread

Ithaca and Washington and Lee both lost to Dickinson at Rowan, so Mid-Atlantic could get a third team in if they aren't too far behind Hop and CMU. That said they usually blow up at regionals every year so Ithaca getting in before them is probably a good call

Feels like you are just looking at the rankings and guessing. You think two teams Chicago beat at their conference championship are going to go, but Chicago itself isn't going to go?

I did “think about it”

You have to consider the regions and other meets. Chicago, Emory, and Case had 63, 94, 110 points respectively at one meet. This was a great performance but Emory is the strong favorite to get an auto bid in the South and Case had ther worst meet of the season. Earlier in the season Case was a few points off Otterbein at AllOhio. You also have to look at how many teams are going from each region, Case is currently third in the Great Lakes while Chicago is fifth in the Midwest. As long as Case can hold off an slight upset from a strong Calvin team (who is also looking to make it) they should get a spot.

I don’t doubt Chicago is a great team this year. I just think Case and Emory, despite the loss, have better odds of qualifying.

CWRU does not have a win over a team that is locked for nationals. Therefore, saying CWRU is a lock does not make sense. Chicago's best win this year is over Emory at UAAs, whereas CWRU hasn't beat a team that's going to make it to nationals. To me, that means both teams aren't autolocks, but the strong likelihood is that both Emory and Chicago end up going nationals, while CWRU is a coin flip.

Just want to say that I don't think either Chicago or CWRU have good wins, but since Emory did so well at Lou, Chicago's race at UAA looks better than it really was. Outside of beating Emory, Chicago hasn't raced anyone meaningful and beat them. Their next best win is over Colorado College, the 3rd team in the West.

Think there should be some uncertainty about Case, but at this point, Emory and Chicago seem like locks. Emory's performance at Louisville should be enough for an at-large bid. They beat top 10 LaCrosse and NCC among other teams expected to qualify. They are also the favorite to win the South. Chicago beat Emory, Loras, Calvin, Case Western, and Colorado over their final three regular season meets. None of those teams are outstanding, but beating 5 teams in the 16-31 range should push Chicago in.

Looking through Loras's schedule, it looks like they are most at risk in the Midwest. Their best D3 win over their is against RV Simpson. When I saw their rankings I assumed they would have a much stronger resume than that, it was pretty surprising looking through their results in the last few races. Their only three 8ks so far have been taking second at ARC (that was expected), falling between Carleton (who will qualify) and Pacific Lutheran (who won't) at Lewis&Clark, and falling between Chicago (probably in) and Central (not in) at Brissman-Lundeen. Not sure why they are ranked as high as they are, but if they can't beat a good team at the Midwest regional, they might be in trouble.

At Brissman-Lundeen, Loras had 3 of their top 5 out due to COVID. At Lewis and Clarke they were without their #1. Put them all together and you get the team you saw at Conference, that would be ahead of Carleton.

But if they get beat by Chicago at Regionals again, then things could get interesting, because then their regular season resume would look weak and the selectors don't always know the details of the season (not that you should get preference for the coulda, woulda, shoulda)

My boys didn't blow up today b*tch

Lol at people who thought Carleton would qualify

Okay here's an early post-regionals natty-bound prediction for the men:

Regional winners:

West: Pomona

Mideast: Williams

Midwest: Wartburg

Great Lakes: John Carroll

East: MIT

Metro: Haverford

Niagra: SUNY Geneseo

Mid-Atlantic: Carnegie

South: Emory

North: Whitewater

At-large locks:

West: Claremont

Mideast: Middlebury

Midwest: WashU, North Central, UChicago

Great Lakes: Otterbein

East: Colby

Metro: none

Niagra: none

Mid-Atlantic: Johns Hopkins

South: Lynchburg

North: Lacrosse, Oshkosh

Total: 21 teams

Bubble: UC Santa Cruz (3rd in West), Eau Claire (4th in North), CWRU (3rd in GL), RPI (3rd in Mideast), and Dickinson (3rd in Mid-Atlantic)

My money is on UC Santa Cruz, Eau Claire, CRWU, and RPI getting the remaining four spots.

Biggest chokes: No. 15 Carleton (7th in North), No. 16 Loras (5th in Midwest), No. 24 St. Olaf (5th in North)

Berman goes home absolutely mf devastated.

There are 32 teams in the field, so all of the bubble teams you mention are getting in, plus Loras and St. Olaf, plus four other teams. But not Carleton.

Question...if UC Santa Cruz is in then how about George Fox as a bubble team? They won their conference and were 4th in the West. They were nationally ranked before this past week and beat Colorado College in the west who was ranked. Lost to Tufts by 1, but beat WPI.

Here is who I have for the 32 teams that I predict in the mens side, might be some spelling errors on school names:

East

Mit

Colby

Tufts

Bates

Great Lakes

John Carroll

Otterbein

Case western

Calvin

Metro

Haverford

Mid Atlantic

Carnegie melon

John Hopkins

Mid East

Williams

Middlebury

Rpi

Vassar

Amherst

Conn college

Midwest

Wartburg

Wash u

Ncc

U chicago

Loras

Niagara

Geneseo

North

White water

Lacrosse

Oshkosh

Eau Claire’s

St Olaf

South

Emory

Lynchberg

Wes

Pomona

Cms

Ummm you forgot Dickinson

Did I?

Amazing day of great races. I was lucky enough to attend the mid east meet. CMU and Hopkins were good as advertised. But, the real surprise was the Dickinson team. After a roller coaster of a season they came to play. Lead by the trio of the scharf brothers and jacob doherty munro all qualifying as individuals, they undoubtably have earned a slot to natties.

When you try to do a thorough nationals prediction but forget how many teams qualify for nationals...almost as if this were written haphazardly while having lunch no?

Heading to naturdays wrote:

undoubtably

you don't know what that word means. Some other poster got it pretty much spot-on with some exceptions; the final men's spot should come down to one of these ten teams (all teams above them I consider to be locks). I've included H2H races that should prove relevant for nationals consideration:

East #5 WPI (wins over Amherst, Tufts)

Great Lakes #5 Mount Union (no relevant wins)

Metro #2 TCNJ (No relevant wins)

Mid-Atlantic #3 Dickinson (wins over TCNJ, CNU, Rochester)

Mideast #6 Conn College (wins over Tufts x 2, Bates, Vassar, WPI, Amherst, CNU)

Midwest #6 Central College (no relevant wins)

Niagara #2 Rochester (wins over CNU, TCNJ)

North #6 UW Stout (no relevant wins)

South #3 CNU (wins over TCNJ x 2)

West #3 UCSC (wins over CNU, Mount Union)

What this shows me is that Mount Union, TCNJ, CNU, and Rochester should have zero chance of getting in.

Central and Stout haven't beaten anyone of note this season, but the depth of their regions might help them. Stout's win over the MIAC champion Carleton is downplayed by the fact that St. Olaf placed ahead of them at regionals.

Santa Cruz and Dickinson's cases are flimsy, as their best wins aren't against national-caliber teams, and they seem to pretty squarely fall in the category of "best of the rest." They're hoping to get points for what some might call "good losses."

WPI and Conn College seem like pretty comparable teams, except for Conn College's above-average performance at their home invite and their H2H win over WPI. The impressiveness of that race might be overshadowed by their late-season collapse, however.

Go touch grass u dim wit. Nobody cares