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Tully not prediction any CA teams in top 6 (GO 12th)
That is quite surprising. Of course, he may be right. He is obviously much more knowledgeable than me.
When was the last time that no CA team came in top 6?
I still think that 3 CA teams will come top 6.
That's quite possible, not because of talent, but because of the conditions. It looks like it is going to be a mud run, and SoCal teams have little to no experience in mud runs.
Personally I am expecting them to run a little worse compared to conditions like last year. His line score of 7-8-12 for the 3 teams will probably be fairly accurate, especially in terms of the 3 teams adding up to 27.
One thing to consider, both DH and SC have a big drop off to their 6th, so their top 5 all have to run well. The chances of one of the runners having an off day greatly increases in a mud run.
I am hoping for better, but realistically I am not expecting a great day for California. Especially since both State finals and southern section finals were great days, it would be easy for this day to look disappointing in comparison.
>>Personally I am expecting them to run a little worse compared to conditions like last year....I am hoping for better, but realistically I am not expecting a great day for California. Especially since both State finals and southern section finals were great days, it would be easy for this day to look disappointing in comparison.<<
Yep, that was a disappointment. But not too disappointing because I was expecting to be disappointed. Parra and Bell getting top 10 was nice surprise.
Coach at Buchanan maybe needs to intervene with Lomeli. Something clearly not right with her strategy this year. DNF Clovis, DNF State, might as well be DNF at NXN with how hard she faded after 1K.
Either the coach needs to tell her to stop going out so fast, or if she's injured, that she shouldn't run (or still continue to go out so fast).
Maybe the conditions didn’t play to the favor of Cali runners
As a Cali runner, enough with the excuses. Arcadia was able to win in the mud in 2010, 2012. The California coaches show know to better prepare their athletes for the mud. Maybe ask the Arcadia coach for some tips?
Coach at Buchanan maybe needs to intervene with Lomeli. Something clearly not right with her strategy this year. DNF Clovis, DNF State, might as well be DNF at NXN with how hard she faded after 1K.
Either the coach needs to tell her to stop going out so fast, or if she's injured, that she shouldn't run (or still continue to go out so fast).
Read on another post it is medical issues all season. Not sure why the coach would put her or the team in that position.
Maybe the conditions didn’t play to the favor of Cali runners
As a Cali runner, enough with the excuses. Arcadia was able to win in the mud in 2010, 2012. The California coaches show know to better prepare their athletes for the mud. Maybe ask the Arcadia coach for some tips?
The tip from Coach O'Brien: Run a lot more than everyone else
Anyway, the thing about grass/mud and racing in spikes on those surfaces is that it's something our nervous system adapts to. It's not about mental toughness. The body needs some time to adjust to a different surface, and that's true going from asphalt, concrete and synthetic tracks to grass or vice-versa.
It's not that Socal kids refuse to run on grass. There is almost ZERO grass available to run on. Get on google earth and see for yourself. Almost every patch of grass you see is a privately-owned golf course. While an individual may think to themselves "well i go run on my local golf course, there's no excuse" ok but now put yourself in the position of a coach with a team of 50+ kids. You can't just sneak onto a course and do a workout. And if you go out there after it rains so you can "practice running in the mud" you could end up getting sued for a lot of money and lose your job.
As a former socal coach I can promise you: If we were able to run on grass we would! If we had mud swamps available to run in, we would! If we were allowed to race in spikes we would!
List of first-time state team championships this year. Boys D1 - San Clemente Boys D2 - Santa Barbara Girls D1 - Santiago Corona Girls D3 - Cathedral Catholic
What Yosemite returns for next year: Stegge (14:51 3-mile) J Olney (15:01 3-mile in 2022) B Olney (15:44 3-mile in 2022) Ruiz (15:48 3-mile) Kurtley (17:30 3-mile) All will be seniors
Looks like they will have work to do at #5
not going to believe in yosemite hype, they have the talent but perform below expectations.
The thought that Yosemite has any kind of chance to go to NXN next year is laughable. They finished 38th in the merge, are losing some important guys, and have zero depth. They do have a chance of winning the D5 state meet though.
I did use the term burned out but in my original response I said “they go backwards”. Which when just looking at stats on milesplit seem to support that. I don’t know them personally like you seem to so I wouldn’t be able to include health issues into the equation. But I do think Sundgren peaking sophomore year seems to be clear. And “going backwards” by a minute at Woodward park her senior year is alarming and more than a plateau. She didn’t qualify for an individual event in the state track meet because she wasn’t even close to her PRs from Soph year. Mendyck was also a varsity xc athlete freshman year and on the nxn team, and senior year could never come close to her PR again. Although she does seem to have made some improvements during her track season. Maybe you are right there are health issues at play there, I don’t know. Hutchison appears to have had an injury at the beginning of XC and rallied towards the end of the season to place second at the state meet. So overall a rough year for the 3 girls who were NXN team members as frosh. The NXN team last year was mostly underclassmen. Whether we call it “burned out” “plateauing” or “going backwards” I would still guess that most of them will not be close to their crazy good times they posted frosh/Soph year by the time they are juniors/seniors. That is because they have been training with the HS team since junior high. That’s a grind! Yes girls bodies have big changes during those years but those changes compounded with elite HS level training since 7th grade takes a toll. I saw another thread that commented on Buchanan girls “staggering across the finish at state” so there are more than just a few people who have noticed those girls are tired!
I dont necessarily disagree with anything you said here. As I recall last season did seem like a MASH episode for the Buchanan girls, there were so many injuries and physical issues plaguing them. They were constantly moving kids around to fill the holes in their line up. I guess what we can do is keep an eye on Lomeli and Cornett who were two high performing bright prospects their freshman and sophomore years and are now beginning their junior years as the team's best runners. Lets see if they show no improvement or "fall back" over the course of this year and next although Lomeli smashed a PR in the CIF Finals so I feel like she is still on an upswing at least (or maybe thats where she plateaus...). But it will be interesting to see what kind of times we get out of them. If some freshmen/sophomores go storming past them then you are probably onto something.
I think after a full junior year completed it is very clear that Lomeli and Cornett have most certainly “fallen back.” The XC season combined with the mediocre at best track season. It really does look like the majority of Buchanan girls peak sophomore year and then go backwards. It’s got to be hard to watch the 7th and 8th graders training like pros ready to pounce. I looked at the results of the central section masters meet and it is the first time that I have seen ZERO individual winners from Buchanan on the girls side.