GalesXC wrote:
"The Coffman coach" is the man when it comes to this kind of analysis. I hesitate to even post my estimates...
In any case, here's what I came up with for the meets on our 2022 schedule:
Northmont +1.1%
Dewines - 0.3% (based on 2021, cancelled due to storm in 2022)
Watkins -0.8%
Belpre +0.2%
Lancaster +1.1% (I expected more like 2%, magic happens when the field is elite)
SNL -1.6% (course can be even faster with smaller races)
Unioto - 2.1%
Newark +0.5%
Darby -0.9% (???, consistently -2.5ish% over the years, Darby reports no change)
Pick North ~0.1 (can't explain this one for 2022, typically +2.5ish; +~6% in the 2021 mud)
Fortress ??? can account for the afternoon temps, can't account for 30mph wind, gusts to 60mph
Coach, what is the context of those percentages?
For instance, what is the "base" course that you're going (+) or (-) from?
The same question for Stats101. You stated "TW's Eisenhart tends to be a -10 second course, your course a +15 second one, Watkins is even, etc, etc."
-10 & +15 from what?
MileSplit used to have course adjustments that they kept up to date but I did not find them to be all that accurate.
i was also wondering about the "speed ratings" that everyone talks about. Do those take course conditions & difficulty into coniseration?