A lot of posts on here have been reported as "factually incorrect" but we have not deleted them as we don't follow the CA HS scene and don't know what is factually incorrect. If you want to email us about something you know to be factually incorrect, please do so at letsrun@letsrun.com.
Tully not prediction any CA teams in top 6 (GO 12th)
That is quite surprising. Of course, he may be right. He is obviously much more knowledgeable than me.
When was the last time that no CA team came in top 6?
I still think that 3 CA teams will come top 6.
That's quite possible, not because of talent, but because of the conditions. It looks like it is going to be a mud run, and SoCal teams have little to no experience in mud runs.
Personally I am expecting them to run a little worse compared to conditions like last year. His line score of 7-8-12 for the 3 teams will probably be fairly accurate, especially in terms of the 3 teams adding up to 27.
One thing to consider, both DH and SC have a big drop off to their 6th, so their top 5 all have to run well. The chances of one of the runners having an off day greatly increases in a mud run.
I am hoping for better, but realistically I am not expecting a great day for California. Especially since both State finals and southern section finals were great days, it would be easy for this day to look disappointing in comparison.
look at palisades... should a team that peaked perfectly, no sooner than needed, be punished as they don't have any significant results before? Everyone always preaches that the only time that really matters is post season and how teams do there, nowhere else. However, the at-large system and the committee is contradictory to that belief. There also wouldn't be this problem if the regions were properly balanced... Something needs to change but Nike probably won't do anything. Also this committee doesn't have a set system and their opinions can be construed fairly easily as objective.
Bro let it go. Palisades was nowhere near a berth to NXN. They were 6th in the merge. The qualifying criteria is pretty cut and dry. Get top two in the merge. If you want to be considered for an at large berth, finish 3rd or 4th. If you want to increase your chances of an at large, you also have to show up and perform during in season meets. Meaning going to major races and either beating an eventual auto qualifier whether that be in your own region or preferably outside your region. Those are pretty objective standards. Palisades did none of the above and absolutely deserve no consideration to go to NXN.
I never said Palisades should've made it. I think the fact that Oakdale was in that fourth position though instead of Trabuco because they properly peaked and showed up on THE day should have much more weight when granting these at-large bids or it should just not be an objective choice of who the spot goes to. Also going out to these meets costs a lot of money. Dana went out to Bob Firman for at-large points which is a costly trip considering air fare, food, hotels, transport, etc. Much more black and white to set a cut-off for the region and remove this objective at large nonsense. Two is obviously not enough so not sure as to how Nike will fix this but it needs to be fixed. Also just making it very clear who has how many at-large points would be a massive improvement that will never happen. I simply used Palisades as an example because they were more extreme example of a team like Oakdale who doesn't have the resume throughout the regular season but performed on THE day. That's when it really counts so I think it's skewed and biased that weight is being taken off of performing on THE day, the only day that truly matters, crunch time, or whatever you want to call it.
Bro let it go. Palisades was nowhere near a berth to NXN. They were 6th in the merge. The qualifying criteria is pretty cut and dry. Get top two in the merge. If you want to be considered for an at large berth, finish 3rd or 4th. If you want to increase your chances of an at large, you also have to show up and perform during in season meets. Meaning going to major races and either beating an eventual auto qualifier whether that be in your own region or preferably outside your region. Those are pretty objective standards. Palisades did none of the above and absolutely deserve no consideration to go to NXN.
I never said Palisades should've made it. I think the fact that Oakdale was in that fourth position though instead of Trabuco because they properly peaked and showed up on THE day should have much more weight when granting these at-large bids or it should just not be an objective choice of who the spot goes to. Also going out to these meets costs a lot of money. Dana went out to Bob Firman for at-large points which is a costly trip considering air fare, food, hotels, transport, etc. Much more black and white to set a cut-off for the region and remove this objective at large nonsense. Two is obviously not enough so not sure as to how Nike will fix this but it needs to be fixed. Also just making it very clear who has how many at-large points would be a massive improvement that will never happen. I simply used Palisades as an example because they were more extreme example of a team like Oakdale who doesn't have the resume throughout the regular season but performed on THE day. That's when it really counts so I think it's skewed and biased that weight is being taken off of performing on THE day, the only day that truly matters, crunch time, or whatever you want to call it.
U mad bro? The fact is you used Palisades as an example which is a horrible example.
Second, wtf are you talking about bringing trabuco hills into this? At best trabuco was ranked 5/6th in California and in of itself was not gonna qualify even as an at large berth. Are you trying to say that because Trabuco went to Bob Firman and tanked, that cost California an at large? I’m trying to understand your rationalize but it’s not making sense.
Fact of the matter is that all coaches that are in the hunt to go to NXN or up for consideration were told specifically by the selection committee what they were looking for and how to increase their chances. This was confirmed by a California coach who posted as such on this board. I believe it was Coach Dunn from Dana. Oakdale knew exactly what was required to go. The got a point from beating San Clemente at Clovis. If they wanted to increase their chances, they should’ve also gone to Mt. Sac. Who knows, maybe they could’ve also beaten Great Oak and gotten two points total against qualifying teams. If you want to go to NXN go to the meets that will reward you with wins against eventual qualifiers. That’s what all the NXN caliber teams do. They attend the big meets and yes it does cost money but this isn’t the first year that Oakdale had a chance. They did their best and it just wasn’t enough. I am there with you that Oakdale would’ve made a great at large team. However, those feelings don’t negate the facts that other regions were as strong if not stronger than California.
Another point, do you understand what the difference between objective and subjective is? Because like you’ve stated, things have been pretty objective and cut and dry on what is required. Oakdale did their best and it just wasn’t enough. Getting fourth in any region does not automatically guarantee or dictate that a team DESERVES an at large berth.
These have been the rules since NTN became NXN back in 08’. These criteria have been in place for the past 15 years and coaches know them. Just because your team or the team you are rooting for didn’t get in doesn’t mean that the rules need to be changed to accommodate said team. In reality, life isn’t fair.
I never said Palisades should've made it. I think the fact that Oakdale was in that fourth position though instead of Trabuco because they properly peaked and showed up on THE day should have much more weight when granting these at-large bids or it should just not be an objective choice of who the spot goes to. Also going out to these meets costs a lot of money. Dana went out to Bob Firman for at-large points which is a costly trip considering air fare, food, hotels, transport, etc. Much more black and white to set a cut-off for the region and remove this objective at large nonsense. Two is obviously not enough so not sure as to how Nike will fix this but it needs to be fixed. Also just making it very clear who has how many at-large points would be a massive improvement that will never happen. I simply used Palisades as an example because they were more extreme example of a team like Oakdale who doesn't have the resume throughout the regular season but performed on THE day. That's when it really counts so I think it's skewed and biased that weight is being taken off of performing on THE day, the only day that truly matters, crunch time, or whatever you want to call it.
U mad bro? The fact is you used Palisades as an example which is a horrible example.
Second, wtf are you talking about bringing trabuco hills into this? At best trabuco was ranked 5/6th in California and in of itself was not gonna qualify even as an at large berth. Are you trying to say that because Trabuco went to Bob Firman and tanked, that cost California an at large? I’m trying to understand your rationalize but it’s not making sense.
Fact of the matter is that all coaches that are in the hunt to go to NXN or up for consideration were told specifically by the selection committee what they were looking for and how to increase their chances. This was confirmed by a California coach who posted as such on this board. I believe it was Coach Dunn from Dana. Oakdale knew exactly what was required to go. The got a point from beating San Clemente at Clovis. If they wanted to increase their chances, they should’ve also gone to Mt. Sac. Who knows, maybe they could’ve also beaten Great Oak and gotten two points total against qualifying teams. If you want to go to NXN go to the meets that will reward you with wins against eventual qualifiers. That’s what all the NXN caliber teams do. They attend the big meets and yes it does cost money but this isn’t the first year that Oakdale had a chance. They did their best and it just wasn’t enough. I am there with you that Oakdale would’ve made a great at large team. However, those feelings don’t negate the facts that other regions were as strong if not stronger than California.
Another point, do you understand what the difference between objective and subjective is? Because like you’ve stated, things have been pretty objective and cut and dry on what is required. Oakdale did their best and it just wasn’t enough. Getting fourth in any region does not automatically guarantee or dictate that a team DESERVES an at large berth.
These have been the rules since NTN became NXN back in 08’. These criteria have been in place for the past 15 years and coaches know them. Just because your team or the team you are rooting for didn’t get in doesn’t mean that the rules need to be changed to accommodate said team. In reality, life isn’t fair.
I’m guessing what the committee didn’t like about Oakdale is that their 5th man has been inconsistent and their 6th and 7th (especially their 7th) were very far behind their 5th (which means there is no margin of error) so the committee was worried that if one scorer chokes, the whole team chokes.
Aaron's winning time at NXN was probably equivalent to a 14:15 at Woodward Park.
This is a bad take. Most of your post is reasonable but certainly not this. No high schooler has broken German Fernandez's record for good reason, and I firmly believe Aaron Sahlman was not capable of it. Only 3 men besides Fernandez have run sub-14:24 at Woodward park (Diego Estrada age 32, Kasey Knevelbaard age 25, and Evert Silva age 23) and all of them had years of post highschool training.
Diego and Knevelbaard were the the only ones to get the record. “I tell people 14:27 is not a soft record. That’s the equivalent of like a 13:44 on the track,” said Estrada.
Diego went 14:14, Knevelbaard 14:20, CJ Albertson 14:29
I never said Palisades should've made it. I think the fact that Oakdale was in that fourth position though instead of Trabuco because they properly peaked and showed up on THE day should have much more weight when granting these at-large bids or it should just not be an objective choice of who the spot goes to. Also going out to these meets costs a lot of money. Dana went out to Bob Firman for at-large points which is a costly trip considering air fare, food, hotels, transport, etc. Much more black and white to set a cut-off for the region and remove this objective at large nonsense. Two is obviously not enough so not sure as to how Nike will fix this but it needs to be fixed. Also just making it very clear who has how many at-large points would be a massive improvement that will never happen. I simply used Palisades as an example because they were more extreme example of a team like Oakdale who doesn't have the resume throughout the regular season but performed on THE day. That's when it really counts so I think it's skewed and biased that weight is being taken off of performing on THE day, the only day that truly matters, crunch time, or whatever you want to call it.
U mad bro? The fact is you used Palisades as an example which is a horrible example.
Second, wtf are you talking about bringing trabuco hills into this? At best trabuco was ranked 5/6th in California and in of itself was not gonna qualify even as an at large berth. Are you trying to say that because Trabuco went to Bob Firman and tanked, that cost California an at large? I’m trying to understand your rationalize but it’s not making sense.
Fact of the matter is that all coaches that are in the hunt to go to NXN or up for consideration were told specifically by the selection committee what they were looking for and how to increase their chances. This was confirmed by a California coach who posted as such on this board. I believe it was Coach Dunn from Dana. Oakdale knew exactly what was required to go. The got a point from beating San Clemente at Clovis. If they wanted to increase their chances, they should’ve also gone to Mt. Sac. Who knows, maybe they could’ve also beaten Great Oak and gotten two points total against qualifying teams. If you want to go to NXN go to the meets that will reward you with wins against eventual qualifiers. That’s what all the NXN caliber teams do. They attend the big meets and yes it does cost money but this isn’t the first year that Oakdale had a chance. They did their best and it just wasn’t enough. I am there with you that Oakdale would’ve made a great at large team. However, those feelings don’t negate the facts that other regions were as strong if not stronger than California.
Another point, do you understand what the difference between objective and subjective is? Because like you’ve stated, things have been pretty objective and cut and dry on what is required. Oakdale did their best and it just wasn’t enough. Getting fourth in any region does not automatically guarantee or dictate that a team DESERVES an at large berth.
These have been the rules since NTN became NXN back in 08’. These criteria have been in place for the past 15 years and coaches know them. Just because your team or the team you are rooting for didn’t get in doesn’t mean that the rules need to be changed to accommodate said team. In reality, life isn’t fair.
I am mildly mad. The fact that only some teams are told about what they can do to increase their chances at a certain point in the season is the epitome of my argument. The point of using Palisades as an example rather than Oakdale was critical as they were a true dark horse in the sense that they were no where in the picture and I'm guessing got no update from what they could do to increase their chances? Even if so there was no quantitative measure of how much you increased your chances by I'm assuming. Imagine if you had a class and that's what a teacher said to you regarding you raising your grade. You're more likely to raise it if you do this, but then they never tell you how much each will raise your grade by. How do you know if there's not a bias against you?
U mad bro? The fact is you used Palisades as an example which is a horrible example.
Second, wtf are you talking about bringing trabuco hills into this? At best trabuco was ranked 5/6th in California and in of itself was not gonna qualify even as an at large berth. Are you trying to say that because Trabuco went to Bob Firman and tanked, that cost California an at large? I’m trying to understand your rationalize but it’s not making sense.
Fact of the matter is that all coaches that are in the hunt to go to NXN or up for consideration were told specifically by the selection committee what they were looking for and how to increase their chances. This was confirmed by a California coach who posted as such on this board. I believe it was Coach Dunn from Dana. Oakdale knew exactly what was required to go. The got a point from beating San Clemente at Clovis. If they wanted to increase their chances, they should’ve also gone to Mt. Sac. Who knows, maybe they could’ve also beaten Great Oak and gotten two points total against qualifying teams. If you want to go to NXN go to the meets that will reward you with wins against eventual qualifiers. That’s what all the NXN caliber teams do. They attend the big meets and yes it does cost money but this isn’t the first year that Oakdale had a chance. They did their best and it just wasn’t enough. I am there with you that Oakdale would’ve made a great at large team. However, those feelings don’t negate the facts that other regions were as strong if not stronger than California.
Another point, do you understand what the difference between objective and subjective is? Because like you’ve stated, things have been pretty objective and cut and dry on what is required. Oakdale did their best and it just wasn’t enough. Getting fourth in any region does not automatically guarantee or dictate that a team DESERVES an at large berth.
These have been the rules since NTN became NXN back in 08’. These criteria have been in place for the past 15 years and coaches know them. Just because your team or the team you are rooting for didn’t get in doesn’t mean that the rules need to be changed to accommodate said team. In reality, life isn’t fair.
I am mildly mad. The fact that only some teams are told about what they can do to increase their chances at a certain point in the season is the epitome of my argument. The point of using Palisades as an example rather than Oakdale was critical as they were a true dark horse in the sense that they were no where in the picture and I'm guessing got no update from what they could do to increase their chances? Even if so there was no quantitative measure of how much you increased your chances by I'm assuming. Imagine if you had a class and that's what a teacher said to you regarding you raising your grade. You're more likely to raise it if you do this, but then they never tell you how much each will raise your grade by. How do you know if there's not a bias against you?
How do you know that Palisades wasn’t told? The fact still stands that the premise of qualifying as an auto or at large doesn’t change that these criteria have been known by all for the past 15 years. It falls on the coach to follow up and ask for more info. Everyone knows that Rich is part of the selection committee and could’ve contacted him. Stay mad.