Fat hurts wrote:
Trollminator wrote:
In other words, we’ve kept a functioning democracy by a hair’s breadth.
Indeed. It really came down to a handful of Republicans who finally, finally, finally stood up to Trump.
That's not true. It only came down to a judicial system that is still objective enough to put laws above criminals. Luckily we don't seem to have too many corrupt judges.
Trollminator wrote:
Fat hurts wrote:
A small part of the R base does want Trump convicted. Maybe that's around 15% overall right now. I expect that number to rise if we get enough damning testimony. But I do not believe it will take 50% of R's wanting conviction to get one. Find the 17 R senators who are most likely to convict. Their states are already well over 15% for conviction today. If 35% to 40% of R's in their state want a conviction after hearing the evidence then that will be enough to persuade them.
See my previous post for why it won't take 50%. There are more factors than just public opinion.
The rational course of action for the GOP's long term viability is to unite, convict and move on as quickly as possible. But the GOP is full of narcissistic and corrupt sycophants who don't care if everything collapses as long as they get theirs. Acquitting is the path of least resistance and perhaps they got too deeply involved with trump to be able to escape the gravitational pull.
I'd chip in that the biggest problem is that the GOP is full of people who believe absurd lies.
They legit think the Dems are socialists, Joe is a pedophile owned by China, Trump won the election but was cheated out of it, and Trump is an agent of good sent by god to save the nation from the devil.
Hard to deal with a party that has built an ideology of lies. You can't talk them out of it.
SDSU Aztec wrote:
Trollminator wrote:
We have to look at it through the lens of two types of Rs, the trumpers and RINOs. Progressive Rs don't exist, at least not yet. The closest to that is Romney. Perhaps the Lincoln project Rs have a chance to start a progressive wing, but they would need to siphon some Dems because the brainwashing on the right is extremely potent. Anyway, the GOP is not even close to the light bulb going off and go with the demographic shift instead of swimming against the current. This is mostly because gerrymandering and voter suppression have allowed them to stay in power without having to cater any group other than white males.
So back to two types of Rs:
Trumpers - if they win the GOP civil war then Trump remains relevant if he is still allowed to hold office. Next after him would be someone like Tucker Carlson, another outsider. Even the likes of Ted and Hawley won't cut it I don't think, they are not extreme enough and can't be trusted by the foaming at the mouth base. Even if they could pull it off, they have no shot at beating a Dem.
RINOs - if they flush out trump's grip on the GOP, top candidates will be Cotton, Haley and Rubio. Notice I don't include Cheney and Romney because they rejected trump and are tainted forever with the base. Cotton and Haley are trump sympathizers. The base is too brainwashed to go with a normal RINO who wants to put country over party/demagogue.
I can see Cotton being able to pull off a win against a Dem and someone like Carlson, as crazy as it sounds, may have a shot if it's against an establishment Dem.
One thing is for sure, the GOP has definitely not hit rock bottom yet. They will have to get totally gutted for there to be any major change of strategy and mission. They will take the path of least resistance, which collectively means acquitting trump and then obstructing Biden, playing victim, and being careful not to offend trump.
If Mitch decides conviction is the way and gets enough Rs onboard, it will be a quicker end to the GOP. He would be ousted and would likely retire with a battle ensuing for the leadership role.
As far as Trump, he will form the Patriot Party and will fleece the base some more. If he's allowed back on one of the major social media platforms again he will mess with the GOP enough to prevent them from moving on.
I don't know why people believe an invisible man can maintain his control over conservative politics. Even without 1/6, it would be difficult for an ex-POTUS to remain relevant. Trump was more image than substance, and he will no longer have one. Even if he put together a network, his speaking style will not play well. His former fans will find something else to do besides chanting "Lock her up" from their living rooms.
A new political party is not a steak he can slap his name on. Trump will soon fade away.
It's not about the man, it's about the ability to be openly corrupt which is extremely powerful. He remains a fantastic vehicle for that. He was a useful idiot and the Rs were tripping over themselves to get some. I have always said trump was a symptom, but the roots of this extreme GOP ideology are from long long before his time. It will not die just because he left. Many will still follow him because they would be more than happy to continue shredding democracy for personal gain.
Trollminator wrote:
Fat hurts wrote:
Indeed. It really came down to a handful of Republicans who finally, finally, finally stood up to Trump.
That's not true. It only came down to a judicial system that is still objective enough to put laws above criminals. Luckily we don't seem to have too many corrupt judges.
it wasn't just the courts, although they did a good job.
Raffensberger refused to play trump's lies
In the story quoted above, upper mgmt of the DOJ threatened to quit if Trump fired the acting AG.
GOPs certified elections even against the rage of the GOP.
Trollminator wrote:
SDSU Aztec wrote:
I don't know why people believe an invisible man can maintain his control over conservative politics. Even without 1/6, it would be difficult for an ex-POTUS to remain relevant. Trump was more image than substance, and he will no longer have one. Even if he put together a network, his speaking style will not play well. His former fans will find something else to do besides chanting "Lock her up" from their living rooms.
A new political party is not a steak he can slap his name on. Trump will soon fade away.
It's not about the man, it's about the ability to be openly corrupt which is extremely powerful. He remains a fantastic vehicle for that. He was a useful idiot and the Rs were tripping over themselves to get some. I have always said trump was a symptom, but the roots of this extreme GOP ideology are from long long before his time. It will not die just because he left. Many will still follow him because they would be more than happy to continue shredding democracy for personal gain.
it's partly gain, but it's partly that the Rs think the Ds are absolutely evil - no better than chinese communists or whatnot.
Right wing media has created a set of lies that most Rs believe to be true.
That's the big problem.
agip wrote:
Marietta Tar Heel wrote:
Without Twitter (or a similar platform) his influence among the masses has lessened tremendously. He doesn't have a platform to rile up the right or the left.
If he was still on Twitter, he would have had a twitter storm over Biden's excutive actions doing away with several of Trump's policies. The media would have been all of it. But we've heard little since he has no mouthpiece currently.
truth
It's amazing how powerful deplatforming is.
On the other hand, he's clearly not trying very hard.
He could easily set up interviews that would be heard by millions if he wanted to.
And I suspect he will want to at some point.
He will not be shut out of social media for long and yes no one can keep him from being heard. This reminds me of Bolsonaro during his campaign. The MSM was unified in not covering him. They pretended he didn't even exist. After a while, that enraged enough people (including activists who actually didn't like him) that it turned him into the ultimate victim... and we all know the republican base loves nothing more than a deplorable victim of the deep state.
SDSU Aztec wrote:
agip wrote:
truth
It's amazing how powerful deplatforming is.
On the other hand, he's clearly not trying very hard.
He could easily set up interviews that would be heard by millions if he wanted to.
And I suspect he will want to at some point.
He wants to be POTUS and he will never try hard to be anything else in politics. No, he won't be able to easily set up interviews on major networks. Sponsers will want no part of him.
I'm not disagreeing that he doesn't have a shot, because he really doesn't. I'm only saying he can remain relevant enough to bring down the GOP and keep them crippled for a very long time.
agip wrote:
Marietta Tar Heel wrote:
Without Twitter (or a similar platform) his influence among the masses has lessened tremendously. He doesn't have a platform to rile up the right or the left.
If he was still on Twitter, he would have had a twitter storm over Biden's excutive actions doing away with several of Trump's policies. The media would have been all of it. But we've heard little since he has no mouthpiece currently.
truth
It's amazing how powerful deplatforming is.
On the other hand, he's clearly not trying very hard.
He could easily set up interviews that would be heard by millions if he wanted to.
And I suspect he will want to at some point.
It would be very hard for him to do interviews now. Even Hannity would have to ask him about his role in the riots.
agip wrote:
buckle up, America. It's trumplandia against virtue, democracy and truth.
Democracy hasn't survived the populist authoritarian yet.
NYT:
The 10 House Republicans who voted for impeachment are already facing a fleet of primary challengers, censures and other rebukes from their hometown Republican Party organizations, an indication that the battle over Mr. Trump will play a defining role in shaping the direction of the party during the next two years.
“Trump might be gone, but Trumpism is virtually guaranteed to be a part of the 2022 elections,” said Ken Spain, a former senior official at the National Republican Congressional Committee. “The tectonic plates have shifted within the G.O.P. and now members are trying to figure out how to straddle the fault lines.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/23/us/politics/republican-who-wont-vote-to-impeach-trump.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage
Yeah the left has not paid enough attention at how massive the backlash has been against those who voted to impeach. No one was surprised that finally some of them saw the light, but they are paying a heavy heavy price and many will never win another election as a republican again.
TTH wrote:
Trollminator wrote:
As far as Trump, he will form the Patriot Party and will fleece the base some more. If he's allowed back on one of the major social media platforms again he will mess with the GOP enough to prevent them from moving on.
I think this would be the worst situation for the GOP since it wouldn't last beyond the lifetime of Trump. All it would be is a distraction for as long as he's coherent (to his minions) enough to be a player on social media or to rally.
This is what will happen and a fate the GOP definitely deserves.
agip wrote:
Trollminator wrote:
The rational course of action for the GOP's long term viability is to unite, convict and move on as quickly as possible. But the GOP is full of narcissistic and corrupt sycophants who don't care if everything collapses as long as they get theirs. Acquitting is the path of least resistance and perhaps they got too deeply involved with trump to be able to escape the gravitational pull.
I'd chip in that the biggest problem is that the GOP is full of people who believe absurd lies.
They legit think the Dems are socialists, Joe is a pedophile owned by China, Trump won the election but was cheated out of it, and Trump is an agent of good sent by god to save the nation from the devil.
Hard to deal with a party that has built an ideology of lies. You can't talk them out of it.
Yeah and think about how powerful that is for them. Even many elected Rs actually believe that crap. The base is irretrievably lost. Perhaps Liz Cheney and other anti-trumpers simply don't see this obvious truth.
agip wrote:
Trollminator wrote:
That's not true. It only came down to a judicial system that is still objective enough to put laws above criminals. Luckily we don't seem to have too many corrupt judges.
it wasn't just the courts, although they did a good job.
Raffensberger refused to play trump's lies
In the story quoted above, upper mgmt of the DOJ threatened to quit if Trump fired the acting AG.
GOPs certified elections even against the rage of the GOP.
True
Fat hurts wrote:
agip wrote:
truth
It's amazing how powerful deplatforming is.
On the other hand, he's clearly not trying very hard.
He could easily set up interviews that would be heard by millions if he wanted to.
And I suspect he will want to at some point.
It would be very hard for him to do interviews now. Even Hannity would have to ask him about his role in the riots.
He's letting the dust settle. Anything he does right now won't help him. He is about to undergo a political trial. But once that's done...
hahahahahaha
Liberals are being absolutely played. Biden is celebrating a guy that referred to Mexican immigrants as "wetbacks." How do people support this clown? This is all just cheap virtue signaling to make the masses feel warm and fuzzy.
If you think Biden actually cares about poor immigrants, and is not just helping his corporate slimeball friends out with cheap labor you're insane.
Paradoxical wrote:
https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/21/us/cesar-chavez-bust-oval-office-trnd/index.htmlhahahahahaha
Liberals are being absolutely played. Biden is celebrating a guy that referred to Mexican immigrants as "wetbacks." How do people support this clown? This is all just cheap virtue signaling to make the masses feel warm and fuzzy.
If you think Biden actually cares about poor immigrants, and is not just helping his corporate slimeball friends out with cheap labor you're insane.
always sad that trumpists can't conceive of politicians out to help people of other races, religions, ethnic groups.
That kind of politics is unfathomable to them.
Trollminator wrote:
Fat hurts wrote:
It would be very hard for him to do interviews now. Even Hannity would have to ask him about his role in the riots.
He's letting the dust settle. Anything he does right now won't help him. He is about to undergo a political trial. But once that's done...
Onice that's done, he will be a miserable, bitter old man that is rarely seen in public. He will never recover from being robbed of an election he legitimately won by a landslide. Who would?
SDSU Aztec wrote:
Trollminator wrote:
He's letting the dust settle. Anything he does right now won't help him. He is about to undergo a political trial. But once that's done...
Onice that's done, he will be a miserable, bitter old man that is rarely seen in public. He will never recover from being robbed of an election he legitimately won by a landslide. Who would?
I just don't get this argument.
Trump's entire life story has been searching for ways to get in the newspaper, to create headlines.
He's had plenty of failures before. Plenty. But he kept finding ways to stay relevant.
I think there is only a very very small chance that this failure is so massive that he is reduced to irrelevance.
Esp when it seems pretty clear that the trumpists have won the day in the R party.
Why wouldnt' he step up to claim his kingship? He just has to get through the senate trial first, and see what charges he is brought up on elsewhere.
agip wrote:
SDSU Aztec wrote:
Onice that's done, he will be a miserable, bitter old man that is rarely seen in public. He will never recover from being robbed of an election he legitimately won by a landslide. Who would?
I just don't get this argument.
Trump's entire life story has been searching for ways to get in the newspaper, to create headlines.
He's had plenty of failures before. Plenty. But he kept finding ways to stay relevant.
I think there is only a very very small chance that this failure is so massive that he is reduced to irrelevance.
Esp when it seems pretty clear that the trumpists have won the day in the R party.
Why wouldnt' he step up to claim his kingship? He just has to get through the senate trial first, and see what charges he is brought up on elsewhere.
Going from being POTUS, to the leader of the Patriot Party (what could possibly be more ridiculous?), would be like playing Single A ball after being a MLB all-star.
SDSU Aztec wrote:
agip wrote:
I just don't get this argument.
Trump's entire life story has been searching for ways to get in the newspaper, to create headlines.
He's had plenty of failures before. Plenty. But he kept finding ways to stay relevant.
I think there is only a very very small chance that this failure is so massive that he is reduced to irrelevance.
Esp when it seems pretty clear that the trumpists have won the day in the R party.
Why wouldnt' he step up to claim his kingship? He just has to get through the senate trial first, and see what charges he is brought up on elsewhere.
Going from being POTUS, to the leader of the Patriot Party (what could possibly be more ridiculous?), would be like playing Single A ball after being a MLB all-star.
My bet is that Trump is to remain the king of the asymetrical response.
Meaning he doesn't have the majority behind him, but makes the greatest impact he can with tiny, targeted actions. His base can muster that, but when we look at the mass moves of this country in recent history, it was not him and his followers. Even the capitol insurrection, his crowning achievement and groundswell, was quickly thwarted by the powers representing the masses.
He will preach to his base, at least those who haven't abandoned the man who they feel abandoned them, and will make largely symbolic declarations and initiatives going forward.
If he is to be contained and if the public wants to hurt him in a way which matters to him, of course the impeachment with conviction would be significant, but just as significant would be if businesses boycott his brand and if the courts go after him with substaintial financial penalties, back taxes, etc.
agip wrote:
Paradoxical wrote:
https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/21/us/cesar-chavez-bust-oval-office-trnd/index.htmlhahahahahaha
Liberals are being absolutely played. Biden is celebrating a guy that referred to Mexican immigrants as "wetbacks." How do people support this clown? This is all just cheap virtue signaling to make the masses feel warm and fuzzy.
If you think Biden actually cares about poor immigrants, and is not just helping his corporate slimeball friends out with cheap labor you're insane.
always sad that trumpists can't conceive of politicians out to help people of other races, religions, ethnic groups.
That kind of politics is unfathomable to them.
Always sad that liberals make everything about Trump and race - I know it's hard to hold more than a couple thoughts in your head, but come on man. It's also sad that you believe that a guy who opposed desegregation actually cares about helping people of other races.