Peaked in 8th grade wrote:
Here is a real-life case study ...
I ran a 4:39 1600 in 8th grade at almost age 15 (June Bday). A school record that stood for 20+ years. This was my 1st season of competitive running off of a football/wrestling background so I was not at all over-trained. Our coaches had no idea what they were doing and of course, neither did I.
Much better coaching in HS but never ran more than 50 mpw; more like 30-40 in 10th and 11th grade. Ran 4:18 my soph year in relay; 4:17 junior year; 4:16 senior year at state meet at age 19 (almost). A bit of a bust, especially for my age and early promise.
Ran at a decent D1 college in a very mediocre conference. 3:50/4:07 (DMR 1600), 1:55, 14:32. Was 5-7th man in CC. Never faster than 25:00 for 8k.
That's my story FWIW.
What's your basis for calling a 4:16 HS PR a bust. A 4:39 in 8th grade is obviously impressive, but does it really necessarily forecast faster than 4:16 in HS? 4: