I wasn't suggesting he should double--although, unlike Ritz, he rarely gets hurt--only that there was a rather notable American who had done so, and successfully at that. Also, the schedule in London is easier than it was for Shorter (a poster earlier in this thread provided the schedule below):
Aug. 4 evening - 10,000 final
Aug. 8 morning - 5,000 heats
Aug. 11 evening - 5,000 final
Aug. 12 11:00 AM - Marathon
Everyone keeps talking about how the 10k and the half don't necessarily translate to a fast Marathon. I agree with this but I was wondering if the fact that Galen seemed to accelerate each 5k of the NYC half might bode well for the full 26.2?
The first sub 2 hour marathoner is going to be a 10k guy with tremendous foot speed who runs in the 26 min range and will not find it that difficult to run hard for 2 hours. Someone like Rupp?
If Alberto and Galen are thinking about doubling, I would think that the 10,000/marathon double would look more promising that the 10,000/5,000 double. Galen would have an outside chance at a medal at either distance. In the 5,000, you'd have to figure that he would have a near-zero chance of getting on the podium.
If he can qualify, why not go all out for the 10,000, and then take a chance at the marathon, where almost anything can happen?
VF Runner wrote:
4th fastest in 2011.
16th fastest ever.
Anyone who says Rupp isn't at the very least a strong contender for a medal in the 10,000 is either trolling hard or hating. You can argue you don't think it will happen, but he has shown he can contend.
34th fastest 1/2 in 2011.
Doesn't automatically translate to being a great marathoner and certainly doesn't make him a medal favorite.
What I think is clear is that he's gotten to a point where he wants to double at the Olympics (no way he triples). He's probably a shoo-in to land a 10k spot, but the 5k is not his specialty and dicey enough that it isn't a sure thing. If he gets a marathon slot he has more eggs in the basket to pick and choose from.
I'm not a Rupp hater, but if you watch the last two laps of the World Championships 10k, when the real racing started Rupp was dropped immediately. I just don't see him having the kick to finish in the top three. A fast time over 10k really doesn't say anything about the ability to finish a championship race and that's what gets you on the pedestal.
Tryon Creek wrote:
.. take a chance at the marathon, where almost anything can happen?
This "anything can happen at the marathon distance" belief has been shattered in recent years. Oh sure, some guys surprise with a great race, and some blow up, but..... there is a certainty these days that is without a doubt: in all the majors and now even the championship races, a couple Africans run out of their minds and destroy everyone else in sight. Which ones do it is the guessing part, but there are enough top ones that at LEAST 2 or 3 run brilliantly. sure, that leaves a very outside shot of a 3rd if absolutely no one else steps up , but betting on that happening is a long shot.
The marathon is no longer a mystery. It goes fairly predictably: the africans dominate, and others pick up the scraps. Show me a race in recent years where this is not the case.
Given the level the 10k and 5k are run at these days, I can't see anyone doubling the marathon and the 10k or 5k, much less going for a triple at the Olympics and still expecting to have a chance to medal in the marathon.
As talented as Rupp is, I don't think he could triple and compete for a medal in the marathon anymore than I think Geb, or Bekele or Farah or whatever more proven runner you want to name could do it. This isn't 1952.
All I can say is AlSal's team is going to take home at least 5 medals from London.
den bosch wrote:
All I can say is AlSal's team is going to take home at least 5 medals from London.
I could reasonably see you predicting a total of three between Farah and Rupp, hell maybe even four if you're bold (and I think three is bold to predict to begin with). But where is the fifth supposed to come from?
Cool Story Bro!
First principles, Clarice. Simplicity. Read Marcus Aurelius. Of each particular thing ask: what is it in itself? What is its nature?
The Mask will DNS.
When Mutai won Boston in 2:03 plus, EVERYTHING was perfect, as in PERFECT.
To drop just over 3 more minutes is something that I doubt you will see in your lifetime. The wind and temp at Boston were what top guys dream of and they got it. Yes, there's hills, but there are a lot of downhills to even things out a bit.
On an average weather day at Boston, he would not have run that fast.
Not taking away from his effort as it's still 26.2 miles no matter how you slice it, but with a huge tailwind for the majority of the race and decent temps are conditions he might not see again for quite some time.
Sub 2? One day, but it's a long, long ways away and it won't be Galen Rupp, no way.
10k coach wrote:
The first sub 2 hour marathoner is going to be a 10k guy with tremendous foot speed ...
Yeah, we definitely need someone with great foot speed. I just can't see it coming from someone with great leg speed. And nose speed just won't cut it. On the other hand great armpit speed might just get you there.
Speed is speed. MORON.
Right on and I couldn't agree more. Rupp is not breaking 2 hours and it will be a long time before it ever happens. At this point, 3 minutes is HUGE!, and yes, Boston was perfect conditions, as good as it gets for that course anyways.
If Rupp just gets one Bronze medal I would be thrilled. However, he does not have much a chance getting any medals in the Marathon, but could finish in the top ten. Ritz is better suited for the Marathon if he is not injured, which seems to be about 30% of the time.
Sir Lance-alot wrote:
The marathon is no longer a mystery. It goes fairly predictably: the africans dominate, and others pick up the scraps. Show me a race in recent years where this is not the case.
Umm ever hear of Stephano Baldini and the 2004 Olympic marathon? This is why we have races instead of just handing out medals to the best time-trialers: because anything can happen in any race, especially the marathon. You think anybody a year ago would have predicted Centro would get bronze at Worlds or that Jenny would get gold? Things don't always just play out as neatly as you'd expect, Rupp would certainly have a chance of being a contender in the marathon.
Sir Lance-alot wrote:
Tryon Creek wrote:.. take a chance at the marathon, where almost anything can happen?
This "anything can happen at the marathon distance" belief has been shattered in recent years. Oh sure, some guys surprise with a great race, and some blow up, but..... there is a certainty these days that is without a doubt: in all the majors and now even the championship races, a couple Africans run out of their minds and destroy everyone else in sight. Which ones do it is the guessing part, but there are enough top ones that at LEAST 2 or 3 run brilliantly. sure, that leaves a very outside shot of a 3rd if absolutely no one else steps up , but betting on that happening is a long shot.
The marathon is no longer a mystery. It goes fairly predictably: the africans dominate, and others pick up the scraps. Show me a race in recent years where this is not the case.
__
This is unfortunately true - in championship mens marathoning you have to go back to 2007 and Rothlin's bronze in the Osaka marathon to find a non-african born medalist.
In non-championship racing, Meb's NYCM win is a major exception. That race was an outlier, for its slowness and that a non-African won.
Women's racing is more wide open because of the russians.
But lance is right in the sense that betting on a non african to medal in a championship marathon is a severe longshot right now.
Sir Lance-alot wrote:
The marathon is no longer a mystery. It goes fairly predictably: the africans dominate, and others pick up the scraps. Show me a race in recent years where this is not the case.
Ottawa 2010, an IAAF silver label race including then-Jr. WR holder Bazu Worku?
I would have said it is ENTIRELY possible for Centro and Jenny to medal in the WC a year ago. The 1500 is one of the biggest wild-card events. Everyone in the final has a chance of medaling, and to get to the final, you need to be a good tactician and a good kicker (not necessarily the guy with the fastest PRs). Plus, everyone in the Olympics 1500 final can run 3:30-3:32 on the right day... few if any are significantly faster.
In the marathon, its a new sport all together relative to prior to Beijing. They're not tactical affairs where a guy like Baldini can win again. The Kenyans will ensure a pace that most non-Africans can't touch (even for 1/2 a marathon). Its reality you need to be capable of a 2:03-2:05 to have a shot at medaling. The only American capable of that (and not scared to run that fast) is Hall (maybe Rupp... but probably not yet).
The examples of Baldini, even Meb, are dated. I would be shocked if someone medals who does not end their career with a sub 2:06 clocking somewhere.
Speed Just Speed wrote:
Yeah, we definitely need someone with great foot speed. I just can't see it coming from someone with great leg speed. And nose speed just won't cut it. On the other hand great armpit speed might just get you there.
Speed is speed. MORON.
Turnover you also have to look at. Go down to your local high school track and try to run one lap in 60 seconds and what I mean, you'll see. In shoes that weigh as much as a slice of bread the boyish looking Galen will be running like a human hydroplane with a V8 engine and a high center of gravity and everyone else, feeling really ugly they will be.