Jess Hull progression - nothing to see here

Linden Hall dropped half a second off her PB. Surprising at 33 but nothing truly suspicious.

It isn't dropping 6.5 seconds in one year.

all bets are off when you get a free trip drafting in perfect conditions.

ie goose 343 mile and such.

eg g dragged guys to the next level same same.

todays men , the pacing was perfect. and the young kenyan made the race where the second and third guys were pulled along.

that said.

it was a great honest race. perfect pace but authentic.

the perfect premeditated time trial race would be kind of a turd in the punch bowl.

Hull and Hiltz make for an interesting comparison because of the ways they were linked in 2018 and 2019. In 2018, they finished 1-2 in the NCAA championship, with Hull getting the win. They both ran PBs in that race; Hull ran 4:08.75 and Hiltz ran 4:09.14. The following year, they again met in a championship race, but this time the stakes were higher: the world championships. In the semifinals, they both ran in the second heat, which wound up being the faster heat. Once again, they both ran a PB, but this time Hiltz ran faster. Hiltz ran 4:01.52 to get the last qualifying spot for the final, and Hull ran 4:01.80 and got eliminated.

So Hull and Hiltz were basically the same caliber of athlete running similar PBs in 2018 and 2019, but their progressions varied from there. While Hiltz's progression stalled for the next three years for various reasons, Hull got progressively better. She improved to 4:00.42 in 2020 (improvement of 1.38), and 3:58.81 in 2021 (improving by another 1.61, for a total of 2.99 seconds over two years). Hull stalled in 2022.

In 2023, Hiltz improved by 1.91 and Hull knocked off another 1.52. Going into this year, Hull was 2.32 faster than Hiltz. This year, Hiltz has improved by 4.28 and Hull by 6.46. Hull is now 4.5 seconds faster than Hiltz.

Here are their progressions:

• 2018 - Hull 4:08.75, Hiltz 4:09.14
• 2019 - Hull 4:01.80, Hiltz 4:01.52
• 2020 - Hull 4:00.42, Hiltz 4:07.09 as part of an indoor mile (didn't race outdoors)
• 2021 - Hull 3:58.81, Hiltz 4:02.94
• 2022 - Hull 3:59.31, Hiltz 4:04.12
• 2023 - Hull 3:57.29, Hiltz 3:59.61
• 2024 - Hull 3:50.83, Hiltz 3:55.33

Who isn't allowed to have "honest conversations"? Let's hear what you have to say, just be sure to bring some facts and professional experience evidence. Don't just say "Wow, she ran too fast to be clean and wears cheater shoes".

People, step back from the repetition for a moment.

There are a number of eyeballs on 1,500m progression and/or 800m "conversion" times. No one's looking at how much stronger Hull has become over the past seasons, dropping to 8:24.39i and 14:43.80. It's this as much as sticking her neck in the thick of a fast pace that's helped her improve in the 1500m.

I suspect that everyone decided to do drugs at the same time or they became more easily accessible and easier to conceal, hope that helps.

Are we sure the track isn't short ? That would explain a lot.

when you run with fast people they make you faster. it was probably a combination of her fitness, a pace that she liked, and a hard close by everyone around her.

look at Maggi Congdon. She ran a 5 second PR in the 1500 at US Trials. was she cheating? no, she was just in a very good place with her fitness and happened to be in a race with pros who took it out fast and pulled her along. she had no idea she even ran that fast until after she crossed the finish line and looked at her time. she was just trying to qualify and stay with the pack. i bet Jessica didn't know her time either until afterwards.

I actually think someone does need to go out there and check the 1500m start is in the right place and wheel it.

My guess is that this is just one those performances when everything came together and there was a little bit more than even she thought she had. I don't think she runs within 5 seconds of this time for the remainder of her career.

On another note: it's mental that Muir has run 3:53 and would only be considered an outsider for a medal at the Olympics. The game has changed, but Faith remains the queen.

So in the interests of being consistent - this is really "eye opening". Not a direct accusation but the same questions are at play with certain others that have been discussed ad nauseum on the messageboard.

For me my simple question is, how is it possible she has been soooo far off her potential over the last 3-4 seasons, especially as she been exposed to really high level racing with wavelight and of course, modern product? It's that simple?

Okay so she's improved her 3000m - yeah, by almost the same amount as she just did her 1500m time - but this just doesn't add up right now. Put it this way, I don't really see much difference in Mohamed Katir going from 3.36 to 3.28 in a season and it's actually incredibly similar when you then look at the corresponding level that has been attained relative to the WR.

It's even so incredibly similar down to Katir beginning 2021 with a 3.36.59 PR, taking a 3 second bite out of it to 3.33.62 and then the monumental jump to 3.28.76. Hull began this season at 3.57.29, takes a slightly smaller bite out of it at 3.55.97 and then the monumental jump to 3.50.83?

People will point to Hiltz going from 3.59 to 3.55 as some kind of comparison (and others) but really it's not. When you are approaching the limits of your sexes all-time potential (currently sits at 3.49.04) every second gets infinitely tougher.

I just dunno man, not sure what to believe anymore. But all I'll say is that if we were so suspicious over a dark skinned Spanish male of Moroccan descent who did one thing, we have to be equally suspicious over a white blonde Australian female who has basically done the exact same thing, just on the womans side.

No disrespect intended but do you really think it's a good comparison to compare a 21 year old that improved her PR 5 seconds in the "over 4min00" sub category of performance vs a 27 year old that improved 5 seconds in the "sub 3min55" sub category?

I don't think these scenarios are remotely comparable, sorry.

This is what is frustrating.

Sure, there may be new PEDs. But EVERYONE is running faster, from jv HSers to the elite athletes.

Clearly it's more than just PEDs.

Nuguse jumped 3 seconds, not 7 🤦🏻

Bell dropped 4 secs off her PB in this race

I like your posts and generally agree. I, again, have to agree here.
The only thing is that I’m a biased Australian. A few other Qs too. The drug testing in Oz is horribly strict, to a very high standard and frequent - you can’t get away with the shenanigans that are routine in so many other countries. Also, import/export of anything at all - even fruit and vegetables - os extremely strict and heavily regulated. Let alone drugs or ‘packets’ of things. Customs open everything and anything that isn’t declared properly or just to spot check. The average pharmacy is terrible too - one needs a doctor’s prescription for anything of use (unlike in many countries where one can get EPO in the average phamacy..laughably impossible in OZ) + even a doctor will be heavily eyeballed if the doctor is prescribing off-label frequently. It’s insanely regulated and ‘big brother’ like in Australia. If she’s on PEDs, how on earth would she get them in Oz? Someone in Ferntree Gully cooking up a storm? It’s not impossible, just close to it in Australia. It’s not the place to go and live in if that’s what she’s doing.

Could be that the track has more bounce to it? The high jump WR fell today as well, with
Mahuchikh (sp?) jumping a 5cm PR.

And I agree with you on this too. Moreso that the incentive (to cheat) when you live in a place like Australia is just really low because hey, if you get caught and your face plastered all over 7NEWS, you might as well pack your bags for New Zealand because it's going to be a greasy existence for the rest of your lifetime.

Once again, not an accusation, more a justification that any questions are completely valid and should be there given the spirit of consistency and anti-bias.

When did she start making steady improvement? The day she dumped Pete J and Union Athletic